JAYWALKER’S POWER STATION for 8/17/17
First a recap of the metrics we are looking at here:
Can’t stress enough to go through the tables and get used to what you are seeing there in addition to the specific write-ups I do in this report – folks are getting an edge with the data, for sure.
We released a video with me explaining the charts, how to use them, use cases, etc. at the link below:
Expected Power, which is a Baseball HQ/Baseball Info Solutions metric that looks at hard hit percentages, line drive and fly ball rates, and shows what that batters’ rating is on a 100 is average scale.
Actual Power, which is the metric that displays the production that players have actually produced.
GAP: The difference between the two. Positive gaps mean they have underproduced to their metrics, whereas negative indicates regression could soon be coming. It is to show how “real” their production has been and if they are poised for progression or regression.
The purpose of the exercise is to see who is legit, who has been lucky or relatively so, and who has been unlucky and perhaps due for bounce back. Or maybe it is a hitter that has been in a slump, but is showing signs of above average hard contact/power.
The red cells are simply to highlight that they are more volatile due to their low contact rate (Chris/Khris Davis, for examples).
I like to look at last 30 days’ samples to account for adjustments and latest trends. There is a table in the chart for top expected power hitters over the last 30 days with contact rates over 75% for that span, in case you wanted to see a list free from complete windmills like Joey Gallo, Chris/Khris Davis, Alex Avila and the like. Also, a Top Contact table that has all the highest % contact plays with at least the average 100 expected power.
Finally, I added one last table to the report and that is a quick look at the expected power over just the last seven days, with a high contact (75% contact) and 10 at-bat filter applied.
We have a slender five-game slate for this short slate after the larger one this afternoon.
TEAMS: NYY, NYM, SFG, PHI, PIT, STL, TEX, CHW, WAS, SDP
TOP POWER BATS (sorted by position):
Travis d’Arnaud, C, NYM (113 EP, +63 GAP, 80% Contact)
Wilmer Flores, 1B/3B, NYM (184 EP, +12 GAP, 79% Contact)
Brandon Belt, 1B, SFG (172 EP, +10 GAP, 76% Contact)
Ryan Zimmerman, 1B, WAS (154 EP, -23 GAP, 77% Contact)
Carlos Asuaje, 2B, SDP (164 EP, +82 GAP, 77% Contact)
Daniel Murphy, 2B, WAS (133 EP, +9 GAP, 81% Contact)
Rougned Odor, 2B, TEX (133 EP, +17 GAP, 78% Contact)
Dusty Coleman, SS, SDP (192 EP, -25 GAP, 51% Contact)
Jordy Mercer, SS, PIT (140 EP, +60 GAP, 81% Contact)
Asdrubal Cabrera, 2B/SS, NYM (110 EP, +51 GAP, 82% Contact)
Joey Gallo, 3B, TEX (243 EP, -85 GAP, 62% Contact)
Brian Goodwin, OF, WAS (172 EP, -4 GAP, 76% Contact)
Yoenis Cespedes, OF, NYM (167 EP, +17 GAP, 74% Contact)
Aaron Judge, OF, NYY (160 EP, -36 GAP, 58% Contact)
Dexter Fowler, OF, STL (152 EP, +20 GAP, 75% Contact)
Jose Martinez, OF, STL (138 EP, -11 GAP, 79% Contact)
Manuel Margot, OF, SDP (154 EP, +33 GAP, 84% Contact)
LAST SEVEN DAYS HEROES (MIN 100 EP, 75% Contact)
Rhys Hoskins, 1B/OF, PHI (283 EP, +125 GAP, 84% Contact)
Wil Myers, 1B, SDP (237 EP, +70 GAP, 77% Contact)
Joe Panik, 2B, SFG (224 EP, +79 GAP, 100% Contact)
Cory Spangenberg, IF, SDP (210 EP, -91 GAP, 78% Contact)
Nick Delmonico, CHW (207 EP, +17 GAP, 83% Contact)
Ryder Jones, IF, SFG (206 EP, +37 GAP, 78% Contact)
Buster Posey, C/1B, SFG (185 EP, +136 GAP, 87% Contact)
Anthony Rendon, 3B, WAS (171 EP, +46 GAP, 90% Contact)
And that’s the list!
Here is the full table of top expected power hitters, top expected power hitters with high contact rates, and another table for leaders in GAP, a.k.a. Most Owed Power as well as GAP w/High Contact. Specialty charts on Top Contact and Last Seven Days are in there as well. There is a lot to find in there, so fire away with any questions – find me in the Premium Slack Chat (@jaywalker72). I hope you find all the power today – good luck! – JW