JAYWALKER’S POWER STATION for 8/16/17
First a recap of the metrics we are looking at here:
Can’t stress enough to go through the tables and get used to what you are seeing there in addition to the specific write-ups I do in this report – folks are getting an edge with the data, for sure.
We released a video with me explaining the charts, how to use them, use cases, etc. at the link below:
Expected Power, which is a Baseball HQ/Baseball Info Solutions metric that looks at hard hit percentages, line drive and fly ball rates, and shows what that batters’ rating is on a 100 is average scale.
Actual Power, which is the metric that displays the production that players have actually produced.
GAP: The difference between the two. Positive gaps mean they have underproduced to their metrics, whereas negative indicates regression could soon be coming. It is to show how “real” their production has been and if they are poised for progression or regression.
The purpose of the exercise is to see who is legit, who has been lucky or relatively so, and who has been unlucky and perhaps due for bounce back. Or maybe it is a hitter that has been in a slump, but is showing signs of above average hard contact/power.
The red cells are simply to highlight that they are more volatile due to their low contact rate (Chris/Khris Davis, for examples).
I like to look at last 30 days’ samples to account for adjustments and latest trends. There is a table in the chart for top expected power hitters over the last 30 days with contact rates over 75% for that span, in case you wanted to see a list free from complete windmills like Joey Gallo, Chris/Khris Davis, Alex Avila and the like. Also, a Top Contact table that has all the highest % contact plays with at least the average 100 expected power.
Finally, I added one last table to the report and that is a quick look at the expected power over just the last seven days, with a high contact (75% contact) and 10 at-bat filter applied.
We have a six-game slate at 1pm and nine games at 7pm. Let’s get right to the top bats, no stacks today.
TOP HITTERS (sorted by position):
Mike Zunino, C, SEA (186 EP, -28 GAP, 54% Contact)
Willson Contreras, C, CHC (156 EP, -29 GAP, 79% Contact)
Manny Pina, C, MIL (151 EP, +64 GAP, 77% Contact)
Luis Valbuena, 1B, LAA (217 EP, 46 GAP, 69% Contact)
CJ Cron, 1B, LAA (183 EP, +7 GPA, 79% Contact)
Edwin Encarnacion, 1B, CLE (172 EP, +14 GAP, 75% Contact)
Justin Smoak, 1B, TOR (163 EP, -5 GAP, 74% Contact)
Carlos Santana, 1B, CLE (159 EP, -4 GAP, 78% Contact)
Javy Baez, 2B/SS, CHC (173 EP, -26 GAP, 64% Contact)
Carlos Asuaje, 2B, SDP (162 EP, +89 GAP, 79% Contact)
Daniel Murphy, 2B, WAS (149 EP, -7 GAP, 83% Contact)
Rougned Odor, 2B, TEX (144 EP, +26 GAP, 77% Contact)
Ozzie Albies, 2B, ATL (138 EP, +61 GAP, 86% Contact)
Jose Altuve, 2B, HOU (121 EP, +9 GAP, 85% Contact)
Zach Cozart, SS, CIN (181 EP, +8 GAP, 87% Contact)
Corey Seager, SS, LAD (174 EP, +43 GAP, 77% Contact)
Kiki Hernandez, SS/OF, LAD (161 EP, +32 GAP, 71% Contact)
Joey Gallo, 3B, TEX (229 EP, -84 GAP, 61% Contact)
Justin Turner, 3B, LAD (189 EP, +56 GAP, 90% Contact)
Wilmer Flores, 3B, NYM (180 EP, +11 GAP, 79% Contact)
Eugneio Suarez, 3B, CIN (171 EP, -7 GAP, 72% Contact)
Nolan Arenado, 3B, COL (156 EP, -28 GAP, 81% Contact)
Kyle Seager, 3B, SEA (179 EP, +23 GAP, 81% Contact)
Giancarlo Stanton, OF, MIA (230 EP, -87 GAP, 72% Contact)
JD Martinez, OF, ARI (219 EP, +0 GAP, 65% Contact)
Khris Davis, OF, OAK (207 EP, +8 GAP, 70% Contact)
Kyle Schwarber, OF, CHC (196 EP, +0 GAP, 53% Contact)
Keon Broxton, OF, MIL (188 EP, +39 GAP, 56% Contact)
Charlie Blakcmon, OF, COL (155 EP, -7 GAP, 82% Contact)
Dexter Fowler, OF, STL (148 EP, +19 GAP, 77% Contact)
Ryan Braun, OF, MIL (134 EP, +28 GAP, 82% Contact)
LAST SEVEN DAYS HEROES (MIN 100 EP, 75% Contact)
Rhys Hoskins, 1B/OF, PHI (297 EP, +101 GAP, 81% Contact)
Matt Joyce, OF, OAK (282 EP, -25 GAP, 77% Contact)
Nick Markakis, OF, ATL (259 EP, +116 EP, 84% Contact)
Mike Moustakas, 3B, KCR (223 EP, +71 GAP, 96% Contact)
Wil Myers, OF, SDP (223 EP, +48 GAP, 79% Contact)
Victor Martinez, 1B, DET (201 EP, +122 GAP, 88% Contact)
Cody Bellinger, 1B/OF, LAD (198 EP, +24 GAP, 91% Contact)
Manuel Margot, OF, SDP (192 EP, +27 GAP, 96% Contact)
And that’s the list!
Here is the full table of top expected power hitters, top expected power hitters with high contact rates, and another table for leaders in GAP, a.k.a. Most Owed Power as well as GAP w/High Contact. Specialty charts on Top Contact and Last Seven Days are in there as well. There is a lot to find in there, so fire away with any questions – find me in the Premium Slack Chat (@jaywalker72). I hope you find all the power today – good luck! – JW