JAYWALKER’S POWER STATION for 8/15/17
First a recap of the metrics we are looking at here:
Can’t stress enough to go through the tables and get used to what you are seeing there in addition to the specific write-ups I do in this report – folks are getting an edge with the data, for sure.
We released a video with me explaining the charts, how to use them, use cases, etc. at the link below:
Expected Power, which is a Baseball HQ/Baseball Info Solutions metric that looks at hard hit percentages, line drive and fly ball rates, and shows what that batters’ rating is on a 100 is average scale.
Actual Power, which is the metric that displays the production that players have actually produced.
GAP: The difference between the two. Positive gaps mean they have underproduced to their metrics, whereas negative indicates regression could soon be coming. It is to show how “real” their production has been and if they are poised for progression or regression.
The purpose of the exercise is to see who is legit, who has been lucky or relatively so, and who has been unlucky and perhaps due for bounce back. Or maybe it is a hitter that has been in a slump, but is showing signs of above average hard contact/power.
The red cells are simply to highlight that they are more volatile due to their low contact rate (Chris/Khris Davis, for examples).
I like to look at last 30 days’ samples to account for adjustments and latest trends. There is a table in the chart for top expected power hitters over the last 30 days with contact rates over 75% for that span, in case you wanted to see a list free from complete windmills like Joey Gallo, Chris/Khris Davis, Alex Avila and the like. Also, a Top Contact table that has all the highest % contact plays with at least the average 100 expected power.
Finally, I added one last table to the report and that is a quick look at the expected power over just the last seven days, with a high contact (75% contact) and 10 at-bat filter applied.
These help us identify who might be relatively off the radar and can be exploited for our success in tournaments tonight!
We have a full volume 14-game mega-slate in front of us for this Tuesday, so let’s get right to it!
TOP STACKS (in no order):
BALTIMORE ORIOLES vs. Andrew Albers
Albers pitched last – last season – and threw little more than 300 inconsequential pitches on his way to a 6.4% swinging strike rate and 41% hard contact. He now gets to face the suddenly smoking hot Orioles. Welcome back, Albers!
Seth Smith, OF (160 EP, +8 GAP, 85% Contact)
Chris Davis, 1B (157 EP, +62 GAP, 63% Contact)
Mark Trumbo, OF (119 EP, +2 GAP, 62% Contact)
Tim Beckham, SS (109 EP, -47 GAP, 73% Contact)
Jon Schoop, 2B (108 EP, -16 GAP, 76% Contact)
Manny Machado, 3B (102 EP, -6 GAP, 89% Contact)
Welington Castillo, C (101 EP, -13 GAP, 77% Contact)
Adam Jones, OF (99 EP, -30 GAP, 85% Contact)
DETROIT TIGERS vs. AJ Griffin
AJ Griffin is a struggle fest right now, with a 6.29 SIERA in his last two starts. He is not getting swings and misses, registering a low 7.1% and has to get the Tigers out in hot Arlington.
Justin Upton, OF (140 EP, -74 GAP, 69% Contact)
Nick Castellanos, 3B (137 EP, +34 GAP, 77% Contact)
Victor Martinez, 1B (135 EP, +72 GAP, 83% Contact)
Ian Kinsler, 2B (122 EP, +45 GAP, 89% Contact)
John Hicks, C/1B (113 EP, -27 GAP, 74% Contact)
LOS ANGELES DODGERS vs. Miguel Gonzalez
Miguel has lost his ability to confound, and though he still doesn’t give up the gopher ball as much as you would think for such a hack, he has to face the LHH powerful Dodgers on the road, where Gonzalez struggles even more. Favorite stack tonight.
Chase Utley, 2B (239 EP, +114 GAP, 83% Contact)
Cody Bellinger, 1B/OF (214 EP, +52 GAP, 81% Contact)
Justin Turner, 3B (191 EP, +56 GAP, 78% Contact)
Corey Seager, SS (168 EP, +45 GAP, 78% Contact)
Yasmani Grandal, C (151 EP, +9 GAP, 74% Contact)
Chris Taylor, 2B/OF (144 EP, -61 GAP, 74% Contact)
KANSAS CITY ROYALS vs. Chris Smith
Chris Smith was surprised when he was named a starter for the first time a while back and I am still surprised he is starting now. Smith’s 48% FB rate, 8% swinging strike rate and 5.78 SIERA means he will have to deal with a healthy and hitting Kansas City team that makes a lot of good contact recently.
Brandon Moss, OF (162 EP, -16 GAP, 64% Contact)
Mike Moustakas, 3B (131 EP, +15 GAP, 88% Contact)
Lorenzo Cain, OF (107 EP, +43 GAP, 82% Contact)
Melky Cabrera, OF (105 EP, -12 GAP, 89% Contact)
Alcides Escobar, SS (99 EP, +49 GAP, 81% Contact)
Whit Merrifield, 2B (97 EP, -15 GAP, 86% Contact)
OTHER TOP HITTERS (sorted by position):
Willson Contreras, C, CHC (160 EP, -31 GAP, 80% Contact)
Manny Pina, C, MIL (150 EP, +57 GAP, 75% Contact)
Edwin Encarnacion, 1B, CLE (165 EP, +7 GAP, 76% Contact)
Ryan Zimmerman, 1B, WAS (160 EP, -12 GAP, 75% Contact)
Joey Votto, 1B, CIN (148 EP, +46 GAP, 82% Contact)
Carlos Asuaje, 2B, SDP (162 EP, +89 GAP, 80% Contact)
Brian Dozier, 2B, MIN (151 EP, -7 GAP, 76% Contact)
Zack Cozart, SS, CIN (198 EP, +1 GAP, 86% Contact)
Anthony Rendon, 3B, WAS (143 EP, +10 GAP, 83% Contact)
Joey Gallo, 3B, TEX (218 EP, -79 GAP, 62% Contact)
Dexter Fowler, OF, STL (148 EP, +34 GAP, 77% Contact)
Manuel Margot, OF, SDP (144 EP, +15 GAP, 83% Contact)
Ryan Braun, OF, MIL (134 EP, +28 GAP, 83% Contact)
Giancarlo Stanton, OF, MIA (223 EP, -87 GAP, 71% Contact)
Kyle Schwarber, OF, CHC (203 EP, +2 GAP, 52% Contact)
JD Martinez, OF, ARI (228 EP, -14 GAP, 67% Contact)
And that’s the list!
Here is the full table of top expected power hitters, top expected power hitters with high contact rates, and another table for leaders in GAP, a.k.a. Most Owed Power as well as GAP w/High Contact. Specialty charts on Top Contact and Last Seven Days are in there as well. There is a lot to find in there, so fire away with any questions – find me in the Premium Slack Chat (@jaywalker72). I hope you find all the power today – good luck! – JW