JAYWALKER’S POWER STATION for 8/14/17
First a recap of the metrics we are looking at here:
Can’t stress enough to go through the tables and get used to what you are seeing there in addition to the specific write-ups I do in this report – folks are getting an edge with the data, for sure.
We released a video with me explaining the charts, how to use them, use cases, etc. at the link below:
Expected Power, which is a Baseball HQ/Baseball Info Solutions metric that looks at hard hit percentages, line drive and fly ball rates, and shows what that batters’ rating is on a 100 is average scale.
Actual Power, which is the metric that displays the production that players have actually produced.
GAP: The difference between the two. Positive gaps mean they have underproduced to their metrics, whereas negative indicates regression could soon be coming. It is to show how “real” their production has been and if they are poised for progression or regression.
The purpose of the exercise is to see who is legit, who has been lucky or relatively so, and who has been unlucky and perhaps due for bounce back. Or maybe it is a hitter that has been in a slump, but is showing signs of above average hard contact/power.
The red cells are simply to highlight that they are more volatile due to their low contact rate (Chris/Khris Davis, for examples).
I like to look at last 30 days’ samples to account for adjustments and latest trends. There is a table in the chart for top expected power hitters over the last 30 days with contact rates over 75% for that span, in case you wanted to see a list free from complete windmills like Joey Gallo, Chris/Khris Davis, Alex Avila and the like. Also, a Top Contact table that has all the highest % contact plays with at least the average 100 expected power.
Finally, I added one last table to the report and that is a quick look at the expected power over just the last seven days, with a high contact (75% contact) and 10 at-bat filter applied.
These help us identify who might be relatively off the radar and can be exploited for our success in tournaments tonight!
We have a start your week right 10-game slate at 7pm tonight so let’s get right to it!
TOP STACKS (in no order):
COORS FIELD: Atlanta Braves and Colorado Rockies
Coors Game with extremely reasonable pricing will make this uber-popular, but it cannot be ignored. Julio Teheran has a 37% hard contact rate over his last five starts and while improvement has been made overall for Julio, the struggles against LHH remain here. He may get a break if Nolan Arenado is not in the lineup. Chad Bettis has not pitched in 2017, but has historically had major issues with RHH in Coors.
Tyler Flowers, C, ATL (158 EP, -17 GAP, 66% Contact)
Mark Reynolds, 1B, COL (146 EP, +4 GAP, 67% Contact)
Charlie Blackmon, OF, COL (146 EP, -23 GAP, 84% Contact)
Ozzie Albies, 2B, ATL (140 EP, +35 GAP, 84% Contact)
Nolan Arenado, 3B, COL (135 EP, -47 GAP, 80% Contact)
Danny Santana, 2B/OF, ATL (127 EP, +33 GAP, 82% Contact)
Freddie Freeman, 1B, ATL (120 EP, +13 GAP, 76% Contact)
Nick Markakis, OF, ATL (113 EP, +35 GAP, 85% Contact)
Trevor Story, SS, COL (112 EP, -33 GAP, 57% Contact)
Gerardo Parra, OF, COL (106 EP, -9 GAP, 84% Contact)
Carlos Gonzalez, OF, COL (97 EP, +29 GAP, 77% Contact)
NEW YORK METS at Luis Cessa
Cessa has been bad in his last three games, with a 6.67 SIERA, 22% walk rate, 50% fly ball rate. The Mets have the bats here, in Yankee Stadium to make much from those bad metrics.
Wilmer Flores, 1B/3B (203 EP, +2 GAP, 79% Contact)
Yoenis Cespedes, OF (140 EP, +11 GAP, 77% Contact)
Amed Rosario, SS (131 EP, +20 GAP, 71% Contact)
Asdurbal Cabrera, 2B/SS (126 EP, +50 GAP, 81% Contact)
Jose Reyes, SS/3B (106 EP, +26 GAP, 79% Contact)
Curtis Granderson, OF (93 EP, -31 GAP, 72% Contact)
BALTIMORE ORIOLES at Yovani Gallardo
Gallardo over his last five starts: 6.90 SIERA, -0.9 K-BB% and 49% fly ball rate. The Orioles have improved in split here and Safeco is the only thing preventing this from being a favorite non-Coors stack.
Seth Smith, OF (141 EP, +3 GAP, 83% Contact)
Chris Davis, 1B (135 EP, +33 GAP, 61% Contact)
Mark Trumbo, OF (123 EP, +2 GAP, 63% Contact)
Welington Castillo, C (114 EP, -15 GAP, 77% Contact)
Tim Beckham, SS (108 EP, -48 GAP, 73% Contact)
Jonathan Schoop, 2B (107 EP, -25 GAP, 78% Contact)
Adam Jones and Manny Machado are both under 100, but have above 85% contact rates, Trey Mancini has 80%.
KANSAS CITY ROYALS at Jharel Cotton
Cotton continues to have struggles against RHH, even at home, yielding a .359 wOBA in split and over .500 in his last five starts. A 5.60 SIERA and 50%+ fly ball rate means the stacky Royals are a good play here.
Brandon Moss, OF (163 EP, -14 GAP, 65% Contact)
Alciedes Escobar, SS (125 EP, +61 GAP, 82% Contact)
Mike Moustakas, 3B (124 EP, +2 GAP, 88% Contact)
Lorenzo Cain, OF (111 EP, +43 GAP, 83% Contact)
Melky Cabrera, OF (107 EP, -14 GAP, 89% Contact)
Whit Merrifield, 2B (99 EP, -8 GAP, 87% Contact)
OTHER TOP HITTERS (sorted by position):
Willson Contreras, C, CHC (166 EP, +2 GAP, 79% Contact)
JD Martinez, OF, ARI (238 EP, -14 GAP, 63% Contact)
Joey Gallo, 1B, TEX (224 EP, -74 GAP, 61% Contact)
Justin Smoak, 1B, TOR (183 EP, +21 GAP, 70% Contact)
Joey Votto, 1B, CIN (139 EP, +39 GAP, 81% Contact)
Rougned Odor, 2B, TEX (135 EP, +32 GAP, 79% Contact)
Carlos Asuaje, 2B, SDP (160 EP, +86 GAP, 79% Contact)
Dusty Coleman, SS, SDP (191 EP, -38 GAP, 55% Contact)
Zack Cozart, SS, CIN (179 EP, -14 GAP, 88% Contact)
Nick Castellanos, 3B, DET (140 EP, +34 GAP, 78% Contact)
Manuel Margot, OF, SDP (147 EP, +20 GAP, 81% Contact)
Kyle Schwarber, OF, CHC (217 EP, -8 GAP, 54% Contact)
Giancarlo Stanton, OF, MIA (213 EP, -83 GAP, 72% Contact)
Shin-Soo Choo, OF, TEX (121 EP, +66 GAP, 77% Contact)
LAST SEVEN DAYS STARS:
Hanley Ramirez, 1B, BOS (6pm Slate) (273 EP, +99 GPA, 83% Contact)
Eugenio Suarez, 3B, CIN (239 EP, -8 GAP, 84% Contact)
Kyle Seager, 3B, SEA (172 EP, +34 GAP, 86% Contact)
Ian Kinsler, 2B, DET (168 EP, +80 GAP, 93% Contact)
Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, NYY (168 EP, +36 GAP, 86% Contact)
Jake Lamb, 3B, ARI (150 EP, +20 GAP, 89% Contact)
Yangervis Solarte, 3B, SDP (149 EP, +62 GAP, 91% Contact)
And that’s the list!
Here is the full table of top expected power hitters, top expected power hitters with high contact rates, and another table for leaders in GAP, a.k.a. Most Owed Power as well as GAP w/High Contact. Specialty charts on Top Contact and Last Seven Days are in there as well. There is a lot to find in there, so fire away with any questions – find me in the Premium Slack Chat (@jaywalker72). I hope you find all the power today – good luck! – JW