JAYWALKER’S POWER STATION for 8/12/17
First a recap of the metrics we are looking at here:
Can’t stress enough to go through the tables and get used to what you are seeing there in addition to the specific write-ups I do in this report – folks are getting an edge with the data, for sure.
We released a video with me explaining the charts, how to use them, use cases, etc. at the link below:
Expected Power, which is a Baseball HQ/Baseball Info Solutions metric that looks at hard hit percentages, line drive and fly ball rates, and shows what that batters’ rating is on a 100 is average scale.
Actual Power, which is the metric that displays the production that players have actually produced.
GAP: The difference between the two. Positive gaps mean they have underproduced to their metrics, whereas negative indicates regression could soon be coming. It is to show how “real” their production has been and if they are poised for progression or regression.
The purpose of the exercise is to see who is legit, who has been lucky or relatively so, and who has been unlucky and perhaps due for bounce back. Or maybe it is a hitter that has been in a slump, but is showing signs of above average hard contact/power.
The red cells are simply to highlight that they are more volatile due to their low contact rate (Chris/Khris Davis, for examples).
I like to look at last 30 days’ samples to account for adjustments and latest trends. There is a table in the chart for top expected power hitters over the last 30 days with contact rates over 75% for that span, in case you wanted to see a list free from complete windmills like Joey Gallo, Chris/Khris Davis, Alex Avila and the like. Also, a Top Contact table that has all the highest % contact plays with at least the average 100 expected power.
Finally, I added one last table to the report and that is a quick look at the expected power over just the last seven days, with a high contact (75% contact) and 10 at-bat filter applied.
These help us identify who might be relatively off the radar and can be exploited for our success in tournaments tonight!
We have a solid, 11-game main slate with three games going at 4pm, so let’s get to it!
TOP STACKS (in no order):
HOUSTON ASTROS at Tyson Ross
Jake Marisnick, OF (144 EP, -90 GAP, 54% Contact)
Alex Bregman, 3B (129 EP, -21 GAP, 93% Contact)
Jose Altuve, 2B (114 EP, +0 GAP, 88% Contact)
Marwin Gonzalez, SS (106 EP, -34 GAP, 79% Contact)
Carlos Beltran (79%), Josh Reddick (79%), Brian McCann (86%), Yuli Gurriel (90%), George Springer (89%) are all below 100 EP, but have excellent contact rates.
ST LOUIS CARDINALS vs. Lucas Sims
Jose Martinez, 1B/OF (151 EP, -18 GAP, 77% Contact)
Dexter Fowler, OF (148 EP, +49 GAP, 78% Contact)
Paul DeJong, 2B/SS (142 EP, -16 GAP, 65% Contact)
Matt Carpenter, 1B (137 EP, +16 GAP, 78% Contact)
Randal Grichuk, OF (129 EP, -45 GAP, 68% Contact)
Yadier Molina, C (116 EP, +7 GAP, 80% Contact)
LOS ANGELES DODGERS vs. Jhouyls Chacin
Chase Utley, 1B/2B (243 EP, +109 GAP, 79% Contact) – Just play the guy, Dave Roberts, please. He is down to 33 ABs over the last 30 days, so here are his season stats (134 EP, +39 GAP, 82% Contact – 228 AB). Come on, dude. Bench Forsythe in this matchup and play Chase.
Cody Bellinger, 1B/OF (204 EP, +58 GAP, 80% Contact)
Corey Seager, SS (186 EP, +46 GAP, 79% Contact)
Justin Turner, 3B (174 EP, +63 GAP, 91% Contact)
Yasmani Grandal, C (146 EP, +19 GAP, 73% Contact)
Chris Taylor, 2B/OF (145 EP, -50 GAP, 74% Contact)
Joc Pederson, OF (89 EP, -18 GAP, 78% Contact)
SEATTLE MARINERS vs. JC Ramirez
Nelson Cruz, OF (189 EP, -21 GAP, 69% Contact)
Kyle Seager, 3B (171 EP, +7 GAP, 83% Contact)
Mike Zunino, C (163 EP, -38 GAP, 55% Contact)
Leonys Martin, OF (95 EP, -14 GAP, 78% Contact)
Robinson Cano, 2B (87 EP, +3 GAP, 90% Contact)
Ben Gamel, OF (62 EP, -11 GAP, 75% Contact)
OTHER TOP HITTERS (sorted by position):
Manny Pina, C, MIL (163 EP, +80 GAP, 77% Contact)
Joey Gallo, 1B, TEX (224 EP, -88 GAP, 60% Contact)
Luis Valbuena, 1B/3B, LAA (206 EP, +29 GAP, 72% Contact)
Ryan Zimmerman, 1B, WAS (171 EP, +3 GAP, 73% Contact)
Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, ARI (157 EP, -33 GAP, 69% Contact)
Victor Martinez, 1B, DET (EARLY)(125 EP, +56 GAP, 80% Contact)
Lucas Duda, 1B, TAM (EARLY) (156 EP, -24 GAP, 68% Contact)
Brian Dozier, 2B, MIN (EARLY) (173 EP, -7 GAP, 74% Contact)
Daniel Murphy, 2B, WAS (150 EP, -3 GAP, 84% Contact)
Rougned Odor, 2B, TEX (132 EP, +25 GAP, 79% Contact)
Ian Kinsler, 2B, DET (EARLY)(129 EP, +48 GAP, 89% Contact)
Zack Cozart, SS, CIN (180 EP, -5 GAP, 87% Contact)
Javy Baez, 2B/SS, CHC (166 EP, -12 GAP, 63% Contact)
Eduardo Escobar, SS, MIN (EARLY) (129 EP, +85 GAP, 78% Contact)
Eugenio Suarez, 3B, CIN (158 EP, -9 GAP, 72% Contact)
Nick Castellanos, 3B, DET (EARLY)(147 EP, +36 GAP, 77% Contact)
Mike Moustakas, 3B, KCR (122 EP, +2 GAP, 87% Contact)
JD Martinez, OF, ARI (234 EP, -21 GAP, 62% Contact)
Giancarlo Stanton, OF, MIA (202 EP, -81 GAP, 72% Contact)
Brian Goodwin, OF, WAS (179 EP, -6 GAP, 73% Contact)
Manuel Margot, OF, SDP (158 EP, +23 GAP, 80% Contact)
Shin-Soo Choo, OF, TEX (125 EP, +69 GAP, 77% Contact)
LAST SEVEN DAYS STARS:
Joey Votto, 1B, CIN (286 EP, -30 GAP, 84% Contact)
Nick Markakis, OF, ATL (270 EP, +151 GAP, 84% Contact)
Welington Castillo, C, BAL (246 EP, -70 GAP, 79% Contact)
Khris Davis, OF, OAK (237 EP, -18 GAP, 75% Contact)
Kolten Wong, 2B, STL (211 EP, +44 GAP, 86% Contact)
Ozzie Albies, SS, ATL (180 EP, +78 GAP, 100% Contact)
Corey Dickerson, OF, TAM (EARLY)(177 EP, +108 GAP, 76% Contact)
Patrick Kivlehan, OF, CIN (174 EP, +63 GAP, 91% Contact)
Matt Wieters, C, WAS (174 EP, +50 GAP, 100% Contact)
Robby Grossman, OF, MIN (EARLY)(152 EP, +152 GAP, 93% Contact)
Mike Trout, OF, LAA (140 EP, -26 GAP, 88% Contact)
And that’s the list!
Here is the full table of top expected power hitters, top expected power hitters with high contact rates, and another table for leaders in GAP, a.k.a. Most Owed Power as well as GAP w/High Contact. Specialty charts on Top Contact and Last Seven Days are in there as well. There is a lot to find in there, so fire away with any questions – find me in the Premium Slack Chat (@jaywalker72). I hope you find all the power today – good luck! – JW