JAYWALKER’S POWER STATION for 8/1/17
First a recap of the metrics we are looking at here:
Can’t stress enough to go through the tables and get used to what you are seeing there in addition to the specific write-ups I do in this report – folks are getting an edge with the data, for sure.
We released a video with me explaining the charts, how to use them, use cases, etc. at the link below:
Expected Power, which is a Baseball HQ/Baseball Info Solutions metric that looks at hard hit percentages, line drive and fly ball rates, and shows what that batters’ rating is on a 100 is average scale.
Actual Power, which is the metric that displays the production that players have actually produced.
GAP: The difference between the two. Positive gaps mean they have underproduced to their metrics, whereas negative indicates regression could soon be coming. It is to show how “real” their production has been and if they are poised for progression or regression.
The purpose of the exercise is to see who is legit, who has been lucky or relatively so, and who has been unlucky and perhaps due for bounce back. Or maybe it is a hitter that has been in a slump, but is showing signs of above average hard contact/power.
The red cells are simply to highlight that they are more volatile due to their low contact rate (Chris/Khris Davis, for examples).
I like to look at last 30 days’ samples to account for adjustments and latest trends. There is a table in the chart for top expected power hitters over the last 30 days with contact rates over 75% for that span, in case you wanted to see a list free from complete windmills like Joey Gallo, Chris/Khris Davis, Alex Avila and the like. Also, a Top Contact table that has all the highest % contact plays with at least the average 100 expected power.
Finally, I added one last table to the report and that is a quick look at the expected power over just the last seven days, with a high contact (75% contact) and 10 at-bat filter applied.
These help us identify who might be relatively off the radar and can be exploited for our success in tournaments tonight!
We have a full on 15-game super slate going tonight so let’s get right to it!
We have two teams with pitchers we have liked to target recently, Mets’ Steven Matz (LHP) and Rockies’ Jeff Hoffman (RHP). This is going to be a well-travelled game, even on a 15-game slate, so here are the top bats expected to play:
Jay Bruce, OF, NYM (204EP, +63 GAP, 70% Contact)
Charlie Blackmon, OF, COL (183 EP, +37 GAP, 79% Contact)
Nolan Arenado, 3B, COL (160 EP, -19 GAP, 82% Contact)
Trevor Story, SS, COL (148 EP, -49 GAP, 55% Contact)
Neil Walker, 2B, NYM (141 EP, +141 GAP, 55% Contact) – 11 AB since return
Asdrubal Cabrera, 2B/SS, NYM (136 EP, +60 GAP, 82% Contact)
Wilmer Flores, 1B/3B, NYM (126 EP, -16 GAP, 83% Contact)
Mark Reynolds, 1B, COL (120 EP, -15 GAP, 58% Contact)
Yoenis Cespedes, OF, NYM (118 EP, +49 GAP, 83% Contact)
Jose Reyes, SS/3B, NYM (118 EP, +1 GAP, 90% Contact)
Travis d’Arnaud, C, NYM (104 EP, +63 GAP, 81% Contact)
TEXAS RANGERS vs. Erasmo Ramirez
Welcome back to the Mariners, Mr. Erasmo, sir – your first effort is to take on the Texas Rangers at home in 90 degree temps! The Rangers have a strong 117 wRC+ since June 1st in split here.
Shin-Soo Choo, OF (119 EP, +54 GAP, 80% Contact)
Rougned Odor, 2B (177 EP, +4 GAP, 76% Contact)
Adrian Beltre, 3B (119 EP, +8 GAP, 88% Contact)
Mike Napoli, 1B (200 EP, -23 GAP, 61% Contact)
Joey Gallo, 3B (174 EP, -28 GAP, 53% Contact)
SEATTLE MARINERS vs. Nick Martinez
Martinez has gotten a reputation for not being fun to stack against and then has turned around and become someone to stack against again.
Nelson Cruz, OF (216 EP, +83 GAP, 72% Contact)
Mike Zunino, C (196 EP, +7 GAP, 56% Contact)
Kyle Seager, 3B (148 EP, +8 GAP, 80% Contact)
Mitch Haniger, OF (110 EP, +44 GAP, 81% Contact)
Robinson Cano, 2B (86 EP, +11 GAP, 86% Contact)
NEW YORK YANKEES vs. Anibal Sanchez
Yankees, in split, have a 121 wRC+ over the last 767 plate appearances, with a .223 ISO in split as well. Sanchez has been a solid SP since stepping back into the role, but this is a tough matchup/venue for him to keep that going.
Clint Frazier, OF (177 EP, +17 GAP, 71% Contact)
Aaron Judge, OF (183 EP, +9 GAP, 55% Contact)
Todd Frazier, 3B (117 EP, +29 GAP, 74% Contact)
Gary Sanchez, C (97 EP, -12 GAP, 71% Contact)
Brett Gardner, OF (94 EP, -4 GAP, 77% Contact)
OTHER TOP HITTERS:
Justin Smoak, 1B, TOR (220 EP, +47 GAP, 73% Contact)
Corey Seager, SS, LAD (196 EP, +11 GAP, 70% Contact)
Eric Thames, 1B, MIL (191 EP, +40 GAP, 62% Contact)
Justin Turner, 3B, LAD (189 EP, +71 GAP, 86% Contact)
Chris Davis, 1B, BAL (182 EP, +50 GAP, 58% Contact)
Seth Smith, OF, BAL (180 EP, +34 GAP, 82% Contact)
Travis Shaw, 3B, MIL (152 EP, -43 GAP, 68% Contact)
Melky Cabrera, OF, KCR (144 EP, +29 GAP, 85% Contact)
Mike Moustakas, 3B, KCR (141 EP, -1 GAP, 84% Contact)
Carlos Asuaje, 2B, SDP, (146 EP, +72 GAP, 75% Contact)
Cody Bellinger, 1B/OF, LAD (143 EP, +39 GAP, 76% Contact)
Matt Carpenter, 1B, STL (146 EP, +59 GAP, 84% Contact)
LAST SEVEN DAYS STARS:
Jose Bautista, OF, TOR (158 EP, +25 GAP, 76% Contact)
Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, ARI (146 EP, -12 GAP, 79% Contact)
Lorenzo Cain, Of, KCR (144 EP, +8 GAP, 81% Contact)
Anthony Rizzo, 1B, CHC (182 EP, +37 GAP, 75% Contact)
Ryan Zimmerman, 1B, WAS (186 EP, -67 GAP, 83% Contact)
And that’s the list!
Here is the full table of top expected power hitters, top expected power hitters with high contact rates, and another table for leaders in GAP, a.k.a. Most Owed Power as well as GAP w/High Contact. Specialty charts on Top Contact and Last Seven Days are in there as well. There is a lot to find in there, so fire away with any questions – find me in the Premium Slack Chat (@jaywalker72). I hope you find all the power today – good luck! – JW