JAYWALKER’S POWER STATION for 8/11/17
First a recap of the metrics we are looking at here:
Can’t stress enough to go through the tables and get used to what you are seeing there in addition to the specific write-ups I do in this report – folks are getting an edge with the data, for sure.
We released a video with me explaining the charts, how to use them, use cases, etc. at the link below:
Expected Power, which is a Baseball HQ/Baseball Info Solutions metric that looks at hard hit percentages, line drive and fly ball rates, and shows what that batters’ rating is on a 100 is average scale.
Actual Power, which is the metric that displays the production that players have actually produced.
GAP: The difference between the two. Positive gaps mean they have underproduced to their metrics, whereas negative indicates regression could soon be coming. It is to show how “real” their production has been and if they are poised for progression or regression.
The purpose of the exercise is to see who is legit, who has been lucky or relatively so, and who has been unlucky and perhaps due for bounce back. Or maybe it is a hitter that has been in a slump, but is showing signs of above average hard contact/power.
The red cells are simply to highlight that they are more volatile due to their low contact rate (Chris/Khris Davis, for examples).
I like to look at last 30 days’ samples to account for adjustments and latest trends. There is a table in the chart for top expected power hitters over the last 30 days with contact rates over 75% for that span, in case you wanted to see a list free from complete windmills like Joey Gallo, Chris/Khris Davis, Alex Avila and the like. Also, a Top Contact table that has all the highest % contact plays with at least the average 100 expected power.
Finally, I added one last table to the report and that is a quick look at the expected power over just the last seven days, with a high contact (75% contact) and 10 at-bat filter applied.
These help us identify who might be relatively off the radar and can be exploited for our success in tournaments tonight!
We have a full-fledged 15-game slate with a lot of options, so let’s get to it!
TOP STACKS (in no order):
ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS vs. John Lackey
Lackey has been okay, but that is not good enough in Chase Field, against a Diamondbacks team that has a .221 ISO and .349 wOBA in split since June 1 (889 PA).
JD Martinez, OF (244 EP, -22 GAP, 62% Contact)
Paul Goldschmidt, 1B (154 EP, -27 GAP, 69% Contact)
Daniel Descalso, 2B/OF (151 EP, +82 GAP, 69% Contact)
Jake Lamb, 3B (101 EP, -54 GAP, 71% Contact)
AJ Pollock, Ketel Marte and David Peralta are under 100 EP, but all have 80+% contact rates.
MILWAUKEE BREWERS vs. Homer Bailey
Homer Bailey has had some terrible outings and is an obvious target tonight (5.62 SIERA, 11.1% K rate L30) and while the Brewers have been awful at home against RHP, there are plenty of bats that can do Bailey harm, individually.
Keon Broxton, OF (159 EP, +35 GAP, 58% Contact)
Manny Pina, C (145 EP, +76 GAP, 77% Contact)
Eric Thames, 1B/OF (132 EP, +35 GAP, 60% Contact)
Ryan Braun, OF (129 EP, +28 GAP, 80% Contact)
Jesus Aguilar, 1B (114 EP, +49 GAP, 63% Contact)
Travis Shaw, 3B (105 EP, -27 GAP, 69% Contact)
WASHINGTON NATIONALS vs. Chris Stratton
This is a great split for the Nats, at home vs. an RHP, where they have a .203 ISO, .348 wOBA and 112 wRC+ since June 1 (906 PA). Stratton is not a particularly effective RHP, either, going 12% walk rate, 92% Contact, and 4.88 SIERA L30).
Brian Goodwin, OF (179 EP, -6 GAP, 73% Contact)
Ryan Zimmerman, 1B (171 EP, +3 GAP, 73% Contact)
Bryce Harper, OF (153 EP, -44 GAP, 76% Contact)
Daniel Murphy, 2B (150 EP, -3 GAP, 84% Contact)
Anthony Rendon, 3B (133 EP, -9 GAP, 82% Contact)
Matt Wieters, C (132 EP, +41 GAP, 77% Contact)
CHICAGO CUBS at Taijuan Walker
Walker has been very good, but his 27.4% K rate is offset by only a 7.6% swinging strike rate, which means there are a lot of still bats against Walker, a problem the Cubs do not have. This is a very positive split for the Cubs since July 1, with a 126 wRC+, .258 ISO and .369 wOBA.
Kyle Schwarber, OF (188 EP, -18 GAP, 56% Contact)
Willson Contreras, C (166 EP, -34 GAP, 79% Contact)
Javy Baez, SS (163 EP, -27 GAP, 63% Contact)
Addison Russell, SS (159 EP, -9 GAP, 74% Contact)
Anthony Rizzo, 1B (110 EP, -10 GAP, 80% Contact)
Albert Almora, OF (109 EP, +15 GAP, 88% Contact)
Kris Bryant, 3B (96 EP, +19 GAP, 83% Contact)
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES vs. Seth Lugo
Surprise, it is the Phillies! They have actually been very good, Jacob deGrom notwithstanding, at home against RHP since June 1, with a 106 wRC+, .198 ISO and .335 wOBA.. Since July 1 (510 PA), this has been even better, with a .226 ISO, .346 wOBA and 114 wRC+. Lugo has not established himself as a missed bats hurler yet, with a 16.7% K-rate and gets hit hard, with a 40.4% HH rate over the last five starts.
Cameron Rupp, C (177 EP, -60 GAP, 64% Contact)
Maikel Franco, 3B (110 EP, -3 GAP, 79% Contact)
Nick Williams, OF (101 EP, -55 GAP, 71% Contact)
Odubel Herrera, Daniel Nava, Freddy Galvis and Cesar Hernandez all have contact rates above 80%.
OTHER TOP HITTERS (sorted by position):
Tyler Flowers, C, ATL (158 EP, -17 GAP, 66% Contact)
Brandon Belt, 1B/OF, SF (176 EP, +11 GAP, 72% Contact)
Joey Gallo, 1B/3B, TEX (236 EP, -92 GAP, 60% Contact)
CJ Cron, 1B, LAA (173 EP, -7 GAP, 79% Contact)
Joey Votto, 1B, CIN (149 EP, +43 GAP, 82% Contact)
Matt Carpenter, 1B, STL (141 EP, +24 GAP, 78% Contact)
Rougned Odor, 2B, TEX (133 EP, +23 GAP, 80% Contact)
Ian Kinsler, 2B, DET (136 EP, +52 GAP, 90% Contact)
Justin Turner, 3B (185 EP, +76 GAP, 90% Contact)
Alex Bregman, 3B, HOU (133 EP, -25 GAP, 93% Contact)
Kyle Seager, 3B, SEA (181 EP, +9 GAP, 82% Contact)
Eduardo Escobar, SS, MIN (139 EP, +92 GAP, 78% Contact)
Asdrubal Cabrera, 2B/SS, NYM (130 EP, +57 GAP, 81% Contact)
Giancarlo Stanton, OF, MIA (197 EP, -83 GAP, 72% Contact)
Jay Bruce, OF, CLE, (179 EP, +52 GAP, 71% Contact)
Nelson Cruz, OF, SEA (176 EP, -8 GAP, 69% Contact)
Seth Smith, OF, BAL (148 EP, -1 GAP, 82% Contact)
Dexter Fowler, OF, STL (146 EP, +44 GAP, 79% Contact)
LAST SEVEN DAYS STARS:
Khris Davis, OF, OAK (302 EP, +28 GAP, 76% Contact)
Nick Markakis, OF, ATL (270 EP, +82 GAP, 84% Contact)
Brian Dozier, 2B, MIN (202 EP, -55 GAP, 80% Contact)
Chris Taylor, 2B/OF, LAD (197 EP, -11 GAP, 79% Contact)
Robby Grossman, OF, MIN (194 EP, +92 GAP, 89% Contact)
Tim Beckham, SS, BAL (164 EP, +25 GAP, 89% Contact)
Travis d’Arnaud, C, NYM (153 EP, +74 GAP, 82% Contact)
And that’s the list!
Here is the full table of top expected power hitters, top expected power hitters with high contact rates, and another table for leaders in GAP, a.k.a. Most Owed Power as well as GAP w/High Contact. Specialty charts on Top Contact and Last Seven Days are in there as well. There is a lot to find in there, so fire away with any questions – find me in the Premium Slack Chat (@jaywalker72). I hope you find all the power today – good luck! – JW