JAYWALKER’S POWER STATION for 8/10/17
First a recap of the metrics we are looking at here:
Can’t stress enough to go through the tables and get used to what you are seeing there in addition to the specific write-ups I do in this report – folks are getting an edge with the data, for sure.
We released a video with me explaining the charts, how to use them, use cases, etc. at the link below:
Expected Power, which is a Baseball HQ/Baseball Info Solutions metric that looks at hard hit percentages, line drive and fly ball rates, and shows what that batters’ rating is on a 100 is average scale.
Actual Power, which is the metric that displays the production that players have actually produced.
GAP: The difference between the two. Positive gaps mean they have underproduced to their metrics, whereas negative indicates regression could soon be coming. It is to show how “real” their production has been and if they are poised for progression or regression.
The purpose of the exercise is to see who is legit, who has been lucky or relatively so, and who has been unlucky and perhaps due for bounce back. Or maybe it is a hitter that has been in a slump, but is showing signs of above average hard contact/power.
The red cells are simply to highlight that they are more volatile due to their low contact rate (Chris/Khris Davis, for examples).
I like to look at last 30 days’ samples to account for adjustments and latest trends. There is a table in the chart for top expected power hitters over the last 30 days with contact rates over 75% for that span, in case you wanted to see a list free from complete windmills like Joey Gallo, Chris/Khris Davis, Alex Avila and the like. Also, a Top Contact table that has all the highest % contact plays with at least the average 100 expected power.
Finally, I added one last table to the report and that is a quick look at the expected power over just the last seven days, with a high contact (75% contact) and 10 at-bat filter applied.
These help us identify who might be relatively off the radar and can be exploited for our success in tournaments tonight!
We have a solid 10-game main slate tonight, with an interesting mix of matchups, so let’s get to it!
TOP STACKS (in no order):
OAKLAND A’s vs. Wade Miley
Miley is a consistently underperforming SP that does not really miss a lot of bats (8.8% over L30), does not get a ton of ground balls (just at 40% L30) and does not get ahead of hitters (52.5% first strike rate). He does give up a lot of hard contact (38.8%) and that leaves him vulnerable to an A’s team that does have quite a bit of pop at home against LHP this season (3rd in wRC+).
Khris Davis, OF (212 EP, +2 GAP, 66% Contact) – 342 EP, +66 GAP and 70% contact over L7
Matt Chapman, 3B (170 EP, -43 GAP, 72% Contact)
Marcus Semien, SS (152 EP, +67 GAP, 75% Contact) – 276 EP, +176 GAP, 73% Contact L7
Josh Phegley, C (113 EP, +43 GAP, 75% Contact)
Rajai Davis, OF (110 EP, -23 GAP, 79% Contact) – 199 EP, +25 GAP, 77% Contact L7
Jed Lowrie, 2B (104 EP, +37 GAP, 88% Contact)
BALTIMORE ORIOLES at Chris Smith
Chris Smith is as ordinary a major league SP as they come, journeyman by his own lack of upside’s definition. Smith has a 5.82 SIERA over his L30, a 7.6% swinging strike rate, 12.4% K-rate and double digit walk rate (10.3%) over the same span. BAL is not great in split, but they have plenty of hard contact bats that can get it done in this matchup.
Seth Smith, OF (163 EP, +0 GAP, 80% Contact)
Chris Davis, 1B (133 EP, +24 GAP, 61% Contact)
Welington Castillo, C (126 EP, +0 GAP, 80% Contact)
Jon Schoop, 2B (125 EP, -17 GAP, 77% Contact)
Mark Trumbo, 1B (112 EP, +8 GAP, 59% Contact)
Caleb Joseph, C (109 EP, -45 GAP, 86% Contact)
Manny Machado, 3B (103 EP, +12 GAP, 89% Contact)
Adam Jones, OF (96 EP, -9 GAP, 86% Contact)
Tim Beckham has a 159 EP and has 85% Contact over his last 27 ABs.
- LOUIS CARDINALS vs. Jason Hammel
Hunch play here, as Hammel is ok (4.66 SIERA L30) but does not get a lot of Ks (15.6% K rate). The Cardinals have a number of bats that are getting great hard contact lately and are at home. Not an obvious play here.
Jose Martinez, 1B (164 EP, -17 GAP, 80% Contact)
Matt Carpenter, 1B (147 EP, +23 GAP, 77% Contact)
Paul DeJong, 2B/SS (139 EP, -3 GAP, 65% Contact)
Randal Grichuk, OF (134 EP, -37 GAP, 70% Contact)
Dexter Fowler, OF (121 EP, +56 GAP, 80% Contact)
Yadier Molina, C (116 EP, -4 GAP, 81% Contact)
LOS ANGELES DODGERS at Tony Banda
Maybe my #1 stack on the slate here, as the Dodgers are great in split, playing in a hitter’s park and against Banda, who has posted good swing/miss numbers but still giving up 37% hard contact when he gets hit with a 56% FB rate. As you will see below, there are a bunch of guys who can make him pay.
Cody Bellinger, 1B/OF, LAD (205 EP, +40 GAP, 78% Contact)
Corey Seager, SS, LAD (186 EP, +32 GAP, 79% Contact)
Justin Turner, 3B, LAD (179 EP, +71 GAP, 90% Contact)
Kiki Hernandez, SS/OF (178 EP, +49 GAP, 71% Contact)
Logan Forsythe, 2B (156 EP, +126 GAP, 65% Contact)
Chris Taylor, 2B (138 EP, -49 GAP, 74% Contact)
Yasiel Puig has a 193 EP, +55 GAP, 84% Contact rate L7
OTHER TOP HITTERS:
JD Martinez, OF, ARI (234 EP, -13 GAP, 63% Contact)
Giancarlo Stanton, OF, MIA (199 EP, -81 GAP, 71% Contact)
Justin Smoak, 1B, TOR (197 EP, +12 GAP, 70% Contact)
Kyle Seager, 3B, SEA (189 EP, +11 GAP, 82% Contact)
Ryan Zimmerman, 1B, WAS (178 EP, +4 GAP, 73% Contact)
Jay Bruce, CLE (183 EP, +53 GAP, 71% Contact)
Nelson Cruz, OF, SEA (171 EP, -2 GAP, 70% Contact)
Bryce Harper, OF, WAS (152 EP, -47 GAP, 75% Contact)
Nick Castellanos, 3B, DET (151 EP, +39 GAP, 77% Contact)
Manny Pina, C, MIL (141 EP, +68 GAP, 77% Contact)
Eduardo Escobar, SS, MIN (139 EP, +92 GAP, 80% Contact)
Ryan Braun, OF, MIL (133 EP, +28 GAP, 81% Contact)
Steve Pearce, 1B, TOR (131 EP, -1 GAP, 80% Contact)
LAST SEVEN DAYS STARS:
Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, ARI (319 EP, +3 GAP, 83% Contact)
Danny Valencia, 1B, SEA (265 EP, -121 GAP, 90% Contact)
Ian Kinsler, 2B, DET (255 EP, +110 GAP, 89% Contact)
Max Kepler, OF, MIN (190 EP, -31 GAP, 83% Contact)
Robby Grossman, OF, MIN (182 EP, +85 GAP, 86% Contact)
Freddy Galvis, SS, PHI (159 EP, +133 GAP, 89% Contact)
And that’s the list!
Here is the full table of top expected power hitters, top expected power hitters with high contact rates, and another table for leaders in GAP, a.k.a. Most Owed Power as well as GAP w/High Contact. Specialty charts on Top Contact and Last Seven Days are in there as well. There is a lot to find in there, so fire away with any questions – find me in the Premium Slack Chat (@jaywalker72). I hope you find all the power today – good luck! – JW