JAYWALKER’S POWER STATION for 7/8/17 MAIN SLATE
The Power Report is back for today’s typical Saturday splitter, with seven games on the early release and eight later tonight. We shall take a look at both, first with the Early Slate Nuggets and later with the Main Slate Gems. Hey. Ho. Let’s. Go.
First a recap of the metrics we are looking at here:
Can’t stress enough to go through the tables and get used to what you are seeing there in addition to the specific write-ups I do in this report – folks are getting an edge with the data, for sure.
We just released a video with me explaining the charts, how to use them, use cases, etc. at the link below:
Expected Power, which is a Baseball HQ/Baseball Info Solutions metric that looks at hard hit percentages, line drive and fly ball rates, and shows what that batters’ rating is on a 100 is average scale.
Actual Power, which is the metric that displays the production that players have actually produced.
GAP: The difference between the two. Positive gaps mean they have underproduced to their metrics, whereas negative indicates regression could soon be coming. It is to show how “real” their production has been and if they are poised for progression or regression.
The purpose of the exercise is to see who is legit, who has been lucky or relatively so, and who has been unlucky and perhaps due for bounce back. Or maybe it is a hitter that has been in a slump, but is showing signs of above average hard contact/power.
The red cells are simply to highlight that they are more volatile due to their low contact rate (Chris/Khris Davis, for examples).
I like to look at last 30 days’ samples to account for adjustments and latest trends. There is a table in the chart for top expected power hitters over the last 30 days with contact rates over 75% for that span, in case you wanted to see a list free from complete windmills like Joey Gallo, Chris/Khris Davis, Alex Avila and the like. Also, I have added a Top Contact table that has all the highest % contact plays with at least the average 100 expected power.
Finally, I added one last table to the report and that is a quick look at the expected power over just the last seven days, with a high contact (75% contact) and 10 at-bat filter applied.
These help us identify who might be relatively off the radar and can be exploited for our success in tournaments tonight!
MAIN SLATE GEMS:
It is a rough slate for SP, which means there should be some good bats to target here on the Main slate.
Texas has the high temps, high total and faces Jesse Chavez, who has been very fly ball heavy lately, getting a 42% FB rate over his last 30 days (449 pitches) and also an 11% walk rate. In short, he is very targetable and stackable tonight and the Rangers bats will be very chalky, so let’s take a look to see who we can target with batzzzz:
Robinson Chirinos, C (258 RP, -54 GAP, 59% Contact)
Joey Gallo, IF (247 EP, +9 GAP, 52% Contact)
Mike Napoli, 1B (236 EP, +46 GAP, 62% Contact)
Carlos Gomez, OF (203 EP, -62 GAP, 49% Contact) – So many windmills on this team. Gomez has overproduced and may see regression, but if he is batting second he is hard to ignore in a stack.
Rougned Odor, 2B (148 EP, -17 GAP, 67% Contact) – Lot of Rangers have negative GAP, which should happen when you are in a park that overproduces to your metrics. These guys are still in play in this matchup even with negative GAP.
Adrian Beltre, 3B (136 EP, +14 GAP, 86% Contact) You want high contact plays in with your windmills, so Beltre, batting in the middle of the lineup also, should be part of every Rangers stack.
Nomar Mazara, OF (126 EP, +8 GAP, 73% Contact)
Shin-Soo Choo, OF (123 EP, +19 GAP, 78% Contact)
The Oakland A’s are very K-heavy, especially on the road, and their split against RHP is no exception, with a 25.6% K rate in split over L30. However, they are also dangerous, with a 120 wRC+ and .203 ISO. They face Andrew Moore, who has a 14% K rate and is very contact prone, being the highest on the slate with a 86.7% rate and 92.3% on pitches in the zone. He has also been prone to the flyball, not a great thing with these power bats of Oakland, with a 54.3% rate. So, who are the OAK bats to target?
Jed Lowrie, 2B (134 EP, +11 GAP, 74% Contact)
Khris Davis, OF (129 EP, -43 GAP, 63% Contact)
Bruce Maxwell, C (124 EP, +23 GAP, 73% Contact)
Matt Joyce, OF (122 EP, -3 GAP, 78% Contact) –Those should be four of the top five bats in the lineup tonight and Marcus Semien also has an above average expected power rate but is just coming back from injury and has been batting in the 2-hole.
Ryon Healy, 1B/3B (122 EP, -4 GAP, 67% Contact) – and there should be your #6 hitter – good lineup if it goes down like that.
On the other side, we do not know much, MLB wise, on OAK SP Chris Smith, but if you wanted to game stack against him, since the M’s have a 5.6 implied run total, here are your top SEA bats:
Mike Zunino, C (180 EP, -63 GAP, 61% Contact)
Robinson Cano, 2B (118 EP, +34 GAP, 87% Contact)
Nelson Cruz, OF (117 EP, +27 GAP, 80% Contact) – Rising, with a super strong 273 EP, +125 GAP, 94% Contact rate and 53% FB rate over L7. I will have him in my lineups tonight.
Kyle Seager, 3B (111 EP, +11 GAP, 83% Contact)
CIN SP Luis Castillo has shown to be a high performance, highly volatile arm, with a 30% K rate, 12% Walk rate, 67% contact rate and 2.76 HR per 9 IP. Whew. But being in Chase, much like being in GAB in CIN, you should consider him a target, so here are the ARI bats that stand out:
Chris Herrmann, C/OF (179 EP, +70 GAP, 75% Contact) – Say it with me now: GET TO THE CHOPPAH!
Paul Goldschmidt, 1B (178 EP, +6 GAP, 71% Contact)
Chris Owings, SS/OF (176 EP, +13 GAP, 76% Contact)
AJ Pollock, OF (168 EP, +97 GAP, 75% Contact) – only 12 AB sample here
Gregor Blanco, OF (113 EP, +39 GAP, 74% Contact) – just in case
Jake Lamb, 3B has dropped below average in expected power, with a 96 total and his recent numbers have been worse. The culprit is a high GB rate, which is 46% over his last 30 days. He will be in the middle of the lineup, so you have to consider him in a stack, but he is not one-off material tonight.
Here are some top one-offs from the rest of the slate:
Lonnie Chisenhall, OF, CLE (165 EP, +33 GAP, 81% Contact)
Justin Turner, 3B, LAD (206 EP, +65 GAP, 90% Contact) – You hear a lot about his high BABIP, but you do not hear a peep about his radically low HR/FB rate. So even as his BABIP normalizes, so too should his power, which is what our GAP is seeing.
Joey Votto, 1B (180 EP, +13 GAP, 91% Contact) – Do not forget about Joey Vottooooo.
Edwin Encarnacion, 1B, CLE (140 EP, -15 GAP, 81% Contact)
Hunter Pence, OF, SFG (132 EP, +55 GAP, 82% Contact)
Buster Posey, C/1B, SFG (151 EP, +30 GAP, 84% Contact)
Anthony Rizzo, 1B, CHC (135 EP, -26 GAP, 85% Contact) – Also L7: 194 EP, -11 GAP, 85% Contact)
John Jaso, 1B, PIT (230 EP, +35 GAP, 72% Contact)
That’s the list! If you have any specific asks, feel free to @ me in Slack and check the tables for all updated bats in preparation for today’s slate!
EARLY SLATE NUGGETS:
Because I promised Premium MLB chat that I would, I am writing up the Rays, who are 4th in wRC+ against RHP at home over the last 30 days (351 PA). They also have a .235 ISO in split and Rick Porcello has been poor this season, especially over the last 30 days himself. Porcello has posted a meh 17% K-rate and is the second most hittable SP on the slate, behind Rays SP Alex Cobb, at 86%, 91.2% when in the zone. Oh, and Porcello is FB heavy against a power heavy lineup. Fore!
Top Rays bats:
Brad Miller, IF (224 EP, -93 GAP, 100% Contact) – He’s back, but only 4 PAs, of which he had two hits and two walks and stung the ball and now gets a homer prone RHP in split and oh yes I will be rostering Miller in a stack.
Wilson Ramos, C (185 EP, +1 GAP, 86% Contact) – The nice thing about Ramos being back is that they have put him in the middle of the order, so his higher contact sits nice in a stack with some of the lower contact bats in Tampa.
Logan Morrison, 1B (173 EP, -7 GAP, 79% Contact) – Nice high power, high contact, consistent and mashes in split. Do not overthink LoMo, as he will be lesser owned due to higher price than some really chalky, but good, 1B plays cheaper than he.
Shane Peterson, OF (165 EP, +16 GAP, 89% Contact) – This is how pure the Rays are running – SHANE PETERSON makes the list. Amazing.
Steve Souza, OF (130 EP, -27 GAP, 69% Contact)
Corey Dickerson, OF (108 EP, +1 GAP, 73% Contact) – Not enough fly balls this season has suppressed Dickerson’s overall rating, but is fine in stack, especially given his lineup spot.
So those are the Rays bats, and as I mentioned, Alex Cobb is very hittable this season and the Sawks are ok on the road against RHP. They are not a power heavy team anyone, now that Big Papi has departed, but they still offer a couple of nice plays:
Andrew Benintendi, OF (166 EP, +53 GAP, 78% Contact) – If Bogaerts is out again, as expected, then it is back to the 2-slot for Beni, who is one of my favorite plays right now due to his high EP and GAP, along with solid contact rate.
Mookie Betts, OF (143 EP, +19 GAP, 92% Contact) – Betts is as solid as it gets (spitting rhymes!) and matches up well here against Porcello.
Mitch Moreland, 1B (139 EP, +43 GAP, 74% Contact) –His GAP tells the story of the times I have rostered him, as his output is below average right now, but GAAAAAP will overcome.
Hanley Ramirez, 1B (128 EP, +16 GAP, 82% Contact)
Tzu-Wei Lin, SS/3B (110 EP, +55 GAP, 72% contact) – If you think I may have been a little tooo excited to see that I could roster both Brad Mlller and Lin on DK, you are correct. I am hoping they bat Lin ninth so I can wrap him around with Betts/Beni and have a ton of fun in this game. Speed rating on Lin is amazing – I am a fan for now. Dirt, filthy cheap, too.
NYM SP Zack Wheeler is strug-a-ling lately, giving up over 3 HR/9 IP over the last 30 days, rising to an 11% walk rate and carrying over a 5.00 SIERA. His GB rate is the second lowest on the slate behind Porcello and third lowest first strike rate. So who are the Redbird bats to go with:
Matt Carpenter, 1B (245 EP, +102 GAP, 84% Contact) – It will be tough to choose between Carp and Morrison, unless I am on FDRAFT, where I will definitely have both. Carpenter, if you are reading TPR for the first time, will go into the TPR HOF one day – always up here, always being touted, always my main man – here is to him getting 2B eligibility again, someday.
Randal Grichuk, OF (224 EP, +23 GAP, 67% Contact) – Probably batting seventh today, so that tosses a cup of cold water on things, but an interesting tourney differentiator.
Dexter Fowler, OF (163 EP, -37 GAP, 82% Contact) – Came back to bat in the middle of the order.
Luke Voit, 1B (151 EP, -47 GAP, 77% Contact) – Voit has overproduced a bit, but this a strong split and could be batting sixth, which would be fine.
Yadier Molina, C (147 EP, +76 GAP, 86% Contact) – Undersold him a bit on the podcast, but did make sure I mentioned him, but he should have been my top catcher on the early.
Paul DeJong, IF (136 EP, -31 GAP, 69% Contact)
Jedd Gyorko, 3B (109 EP, -21 GAP, 78% Contact) – Also a nice 45% FB rate.
Last stack will be the Twins against another struggling SP, BAL LHP Wade Miley. The Twins have not been hitting all that well as a team, and it is reflected here in TPR. Still, there are a couple of bats to look at here:
Chris Gimenez, C (134 EP, -69 GAP, 71% Contact) – Has way overproduced, but can see why one might want to include him in a Twins stack.
Brian Dozier, 2B (132 EP, +30 GAP, 79% Contact) – Cash game 2B, whereas Miller is my GPP.
Miguel Sano, 3B (122 EP, +1 GAP, 65% Contact) – Needs the AS break, but still dangerous in split here.
Now, for the one-offs:
Freddie Freeman, 1B, ATL LAST SEVEN (135 EP, -35 GAP, 82% Contact) – 21% GB Rate also, Freeman has come back with solid timing and now will be a perfect leverage play against Stephen Strasburg, who does struggle in heat games.
Stephen Vogt, C, MIL (276 EP, +97 GAP, 84% Contact) – TPR was telling you, even before Oakland released him, that he was rising up after his A’s teammates had peaked in May. Now in a better hitter’s park, he is crushing and has a leverage play of his own, batting seventh against NYY Luis Severino.
Justin Smoak, 1B, TOR (156 EP, +1 GAP, 77% Contact) – All year he has been here. Mike Fiers has been tough, but Smoak at home is a solid GPP play here.
Curtis Granderson, OF, NYM (242 EP, -2 GAP, 73% Contact) – Nice matchup, if he plays, against Waino in STL.
Lucas Duda, 1B, NYM (182 EP, -16 GAP, 63% Contact)
Jay Bruce, OF, NYM (175 EP, -17 GAP, 71% Contact)
Yoenis Cespedes, OF, NYM (125 EP, +39 GAP, 84% Contact) – These Mets show why I cannot go with Waino today – too volatile to stack, too dangerous to target with a SP.
Daniel Murphy, 2B, WAS (101 EP, -23 GAP, 93% Contact) – Nice matchup with Julio Teheran, Murphy just gets his EP above 100 to make the contact list.
There are a number of quality bats on the EP/High contact lists that are not in prime splits (Rendon, Joseph come to mind immediately) so, as always look at the charts when considering your stacks/one-offs.
Here is the full table of top expected power hitters, top expected power hitters with high contact rates, and another table for leaders in GAP, a.k.a. Most Owed Power as well as GAP w/High Contact. The new charts on Top Contact and Last Seven Days are in there as well. There is a lot to find in there, so fire away with any questions – find me in the Premium Slack Chat (@jaywalker72). I hope you find all the power today – good luck! – JW