JAYWALKER’S POWER STATION for 7/14/17 MAIN SLATE
The Power Report is back, along with baseball – woohooo! It is the full wagon tonight – 15 amazing games with so many places to run and hide with batters that the report should be overflowing with options – you have been armed for battle!
First a recap of the metrics we are looking at here:
Can’t stress enough to go through the tables and get used to what you are seeing there in addition to the specific write-ups I do in this report – folks are getting an edge with the data, for sure.
We just released a video with me explaining the charts, how to use them, use cases, etc. at the link below:
Expected Power, which is a Baseball HQ/Baseball Info Solutions metric that looks at hard hit percentages, line drive and fly ball rates, and shows what that batters’ rating is on a 100 is average scale.
Actual Power, which is the metric that displays the production that players have actually produced.
GAP: The difference between the two. Positive gaps mean they have underproduced to their metrics, whereas negative indicates regression could soon be coming. It is to show how “real” their production has been and if they are poised for progression or regression.
The purpose of the exercise is to see who is legit, who has been lucky or relatively so, and who has been unlucky and perhaps due for bounce back. Or maybe it is a hitter that has been in a slump, but is showing signs of above average hard contact/power.
The red cells are simply to highlight that they are more volatile due to their low contact rate (Chris/Khris Davis, for examples).
I like to look at last 30 days’ samples to account for adjustments and latest trends. There is a table in the chart for top expected power hitters over the last 30 days with contact rates over 75% for that span, in case you wanted to see a list free from complete windmills like Joey Gallo, Chris/Khris Davis, Alex Avila and the like. Also, I have added a Top Contact table that has all the highest % contact plays with at least the average 100 expected power.
Finally, I added one last table to the report and that is a quick look at the expected power over just the last seven days, with a high contact (75% contact) and 10 at-bat filter applied.
These help us identify who might be relatively off the radar and can be exploited for our success in tournaments tonight!
MAIN SLATE GEMS:
The Seattle Mariners bats are the chalk, if you can call such things on such a dispersed slate, but they have the highest Vegas total on the board as of this writing and they face James Shields, who grades out as the most hittable SP on the slate for power. Shields has a 47% FB rate, leading to a 3+ HR/9 IP total thus far, 81% Contact rate, low 14.9% K rate (all rates L30) and nearly 10% walk rate. Stinky. Fortunately for Shields, the Mariners are not coming in hot whatsoever. They are 19th (L30) in wRC+ against RHP on the road (92 over 246 PAs) and a fair .162 ISO. Here are the top bats in their expected lineup:
Mike Zunino, C (165 EP, -51 GAP, 58% Contact)
Robinson Cano, 2B (136 EP, +44 GAP, 85% Contact)
Mitch Haniger, OF (131 EP, +34 GAP, 69% Contact)
Nelson Cruz, OF (126 EP, +30 GAP, 80% Contact)
Kyle Seager, 3B (100 EP, +13 GAP, 84% Contact)
Sneaky play of the slate might be the Tigers, who have the explodable Aaron Sanchez against them and at home against RHP is usually where the Tigers excel. They have been weaker over the last 30, though, coming in at 93 wRC+ and 19th in that split. Still, they have potent bats in a good spot, so let us take a look at who those bats are:
Alex Avila, C (140 EP, +62 GAP, 63% Contact)
Miguel Cabrera, 1B (139 EP, +16 GAP, 75% Contact)
Ian Kinsler, 2B (117 EP, +33 GAP, 87% Contact)
Nick Castellanos, 3B (115 EP, -14 GAP, 73% Contact)
No Upton, No JD, No Victor – this team is struggling and are GPP only, but they could get going. If you do stack, make sure you get Kinsler, or Cabrera in there to stabilize the stack.
The Brewers are at home against the Phillies and Nick Pivetta has had some good K-rates, but also gives up 50% FB and almost two homers a game. The Brewers are only average at home against RHP, as a team, but also carry a team ISO of .241 – hey, that is a big number! These guys are my top stack tonight.
Stephen Vogt, C (272 EP, +77 GAP, 81% Contact) – My top catcher tonight – is on a roll and has to be happy about being in a hitter’s park after playing home games in Oakland all these seasons.
Ryan Braun, OF (201 EP, +4 GAP, 83% Contact) – Has returned with a fury, with a 257 EP over his last seven days (Vogt is at 402, btw).
Keon Broxton, OF (184 EP, -18 GAP, 59% Contact)
Eric Thames, 1B (181 EP, -8 GAP, 64% Contact)
Travis Shaw, 3B (154 EP, -40 GAP, 76% Contact)
Jonathan Villar, IF (117 EP, +17 GAP, 67% Contact)
It is a night that has many neutral type matchups, with the better pitchers against good teams (Berrios at HOU, for example – White Sox at home against LHP, but against Paxton) and the bad pitchers heading in against teams that are not in their best splits.
With that in mind, it looks like many one-off situations, so here are the some of the top bats to watch tonight:
Matt Carpenter, 1B, STL (224 EP, +90 GAP, 85% Contact) – I have been banging the Matt Carpenter Drum for a while. He is back to his elite levels and still has much production to catch up on with his massive 90 GAP. When, oh when, will he have 2B eligibility again? Until then, he is a cash game 1B play and all formats on FantasyDraft. Teammate Dexter Fowler, OF (174 EP, -12 GAP, 82% Contact) has also found his way back up our tables.
Justin Turner, 3B, LAD (214 EP, +55 GAP, 90% Contact) – Two homers in the game before the break closed some of his GAP and raised his below average HR/FB rate, which is still too low.
Josh Reddick, OF, HOU (197 EP, +9 GAP, 83% Contact) – Houston is #1 in wRC+ against RHP at home, with an otherworldly 183 number. That is 83% higher output than your average team. However, they do get a very tough Jose Berrios, who keeps things in check, so it looks more like a one or two-off situation here, so why not Reddick, who should be batting second. Of course, if you look at the table, George Springer, OF (186 EP, -40 GAP, 79% Contact) might look like the perfect partner for Reddick, too.
Sal Perez, C, KCR (177 EP, -7 GAP, 76% Contact) – Warm night in KC and Martin Perez on the hill for TEX.
Logan Morrison, 1B, TBR (170 EP, -2 GAP, 77% Contact) – Not the best of situations, against a resurgent Ricky Nolasco and in LA, but he is the best of the bench.
Andrew Benintendi, OF, BOS (167 EP, +55 GAP, 78% Contact) – The Yankees are pitching Michael Pineda, who is struggling big time over his last few starts. Over the last 434 pitches (30 days), he has a poor 14.5% K rate and has given up 2.55 HR/9 IP.
That’s the list! If you have any specific asks, feel free to @ me in Slack and check the tables for all updated bats in preparation for today’s slate!
Here is the full table of top expected power hitters, top expected power hitters with high contact rates, and another table for leaders in GAP, a.k.a. Most Owed Power as well as GAP w/High Contact. The new charts on Top Contact and Last Seven Days are in there as well. There is a lot to find in there, so fire away with any questions – find me in the Premium Slack Chat (@jaywalker72). I hope you find all the power today – good luck! – JW