JAYWALKER’S POWER STATION for 7/7/17
The Power Report is back for today’s READY FOR THE WEEKEND 13-game mega-slate, complete with huge 100K tourney over on FantasyDraft – giddyup! That’s a lot of cash on the table, so let us go find our bats for tonight!
First a recap of the metrics we are looking at here:
Expected Power, which is a Baseball HQ/Baseball Info Solutions metric that looks at hard hit percentages, line drive and fly ball rates, and shows what that batters’ rating is on a 100 is average scale.
Actual Power, which is the metric that displays the production that players have actually produced.
GAP: The difference between the two. Positive gaps mean they have underproduced to their metrics, whereas negative indicates regression could soon be coming. It is to show how “real” their production has been and if they are poised for progression or regression.
The purpose of the exercise is to see who is legit, who has been lucky or relatively so, and who has been unlucky and perhaps due for bounce back. Or maybe it is a hitter that has been in a slump, but is showing signs of above average hard contact/power.
The red cells are simply to highlight that they are more volatile due to their low contact rate (Chris/Khris Davis, for examples).
I like to look at last 30 days’ samples to account for adjustments and latest trends. There is a table in the chart for top expected power hitters over the last 30 days with contact rates over 75% for that span, in case you wanted to see a list free from complete windmills like Joey Gallo, Chris/Khris Davis, Alex Avila and the like. Also, I have added a Top Contact table that has all the highest % contact plays with at least the average 100 expected power.
Finally, I added one last table to the report and that is a quick look at the expected power over just the last seven days, with a high contact (75% contact) and 10 at-bat filter applied.
Can’t stress enough to go through the tables and get used to what you are seeing there in addition to the specific write-ups I do in this report – folks are getting an edge with the data, for sure.
These help us identify who might be relatively off the radar and can be exploited for our success in tournaments tonight!
MAIN SLATE GEMS:
The worst pitcher on the slate, venue excluded, may very well be Felix Jorge, who has shown, in a very small sample this season, to be extremely hittable and give up a lot of fly balls. The Orioles have not been great this season, but here are the top bats to target on the O’s in our tables:
Trey Mancini, 1B (163 EP, -2 GAP, 70% Contact)
Jonathan Schoop, 2B (138 EP, -42 GAP, 80% Contact)
Ruben Tejada, SS (118 EP, +90 GAP, 83% Contact)
I left off Seth Smith (139 EP, +24 GAP, 74% Contact) because of L-L and may not be in the lineup and oh well included him now anyway just now.
Hot fun in Texas tonight and two average pitchers, Cole Hamels and Ricky Nolasco on the mound. The game has a ten run total and very favorable weather conditions, so let’s look at the top bats from this game on both sides:
Robinson Chirinos, C, TEX (258 EP, -55 GAP, 59% Contact)
Joey Gallo, 3B/1B (253 EP, -4 GAP, 51% Contact)
Mike Napoli, 1B (237 EP, +32 GAP, 60% Contact)
Jurickson Profar, IF (224 EP, +108 GAP, 65% Contact) – only 17 AB sample here
Carlos Gomez, OF (209 EP, -64 GAP, 51% Contact)
Luis Valbuena, 1B/3B (186 EP, +69 GAP, 65% Contact)
Rougned Odor, 2B (138 EP, -21 GAP, 70% Contact)
Nomar Mazara, OF (128 EP, +11 GAP, 73% Contact)
Martin Maldonada, C (122 EP, +42 GAP, 69% Contact)
Adrian Beltre, 3B (120 EP, +10 GAP, 86% Contact)
Shin-Soo Choo, OF (112 EP, +7 GAP, 78% Contact)
The Yankees will be verrry popular tonight, going against Junior Guerra in Yankee Stadium, a split where the Bronx Bombers are second over the last 30 days in wRC+ in split with 140 and a .249 ISO:
Aaron Judge, OF (185 EP, -62 GAP, 62% Contact)
Chris Carter, 1B (152 EP, +25 GAP, 62% Contact)
Gary Sanchez, C (112 EP, -47 GAP, 74% Contact)
Brett Gardner, OF (93 EP, +21 GAP, 80% Contact)
Gee, the WhiteSox come to Coors and Derek Holland is pitching for Chicago! Holland has given up the longball over twice per nine innings over the last 30 days, making him a nice one off target due to good RB rate and alright walk rates. Meanwhile, COL RHP German Marquez has kept the ball in the park, but has the third highest contact rate and third lowest GB rate on the slate. His 3.2% HR/FB rate will not last at this rate.
Matt Davidson, 1B/3B (204 EP, -33 GAP, 51% Contact)
Pat Valaika, SS (175 EP, +42 GAP, 76% Contact)
Mark Reynolds, 1B (145 EP, -9 GAP, 58% Contact)
Todd Frazier, 3B (139 EP, -18 GAP, 76% Contact)
Nolan Arenado, 3B (138 EP, +43 GAP, 81% Contact)
Jose Abreu, 1B (123 EP, +24 GAP, 83% Contact)
Avisail Garcia, OF (123 EP, +24 GAP, 77% Contact)
Charlie Blackmon, OF (113 EP, -1 GAP, 81% Contact)
Here are some top one-off plays tonight:
Justin Turner, 3B, LAD (206 EP, 64 GAP, 90% Contact)
Brian Dozier, 2B, MIN (138 EP, _30 GAP, 80% Contact)
Andrew Benintendi, OF, BOS (172 EP, +40 GAP, 77% Contact)
Ryan Braun, OF, MIL, LAST SEVEN DAYS (290 EP, +88 GAP, 83% Contact)
Alex Avila, C/1B, DET (186 EP, +72 GAP, 64% Contact)
Josh Reddick, OF, HOU (192 EP, +18 GAP, 86% Contact)
Manny Pina, C, MIL (187 EP, +43 GAP, 75% Contact)
Carlos Beltran, OF, HOU (153 EP, +33 GAP, 81% Contact)
Lonnie Chisenhall, OF, CLE (162 EP, +24 GAP, 79% Contact)
OK, one more stack. I like Tim Adleman of the Reds and believe the RHP has a future, but there is no question he has been roughed up lately and now has to go into Chase Field, so here are the top bats on Arizona if you wish to go there.
AJ Pollock, OF (224 EP, +133 GAP, 88% Contact) – EIGHT at-bats only
Chris Owings, SS (192 EP, +8 GAP, 75% Contact)
Chris Herrmann, C/OF (179 EP, +70 GAP, 73% Contact) – If they used him against Alex Wood, I might sue for abuse if they bench him at home against Adleman. Just saying. GET TO THE CHOPPAH! (I cannot help myself with that).
Chris Iannetta, C (172 EP, -87 GAP, 59% Contact)
Paul Goldschmidt, 1B (162 EP, +1 GAP, 71% Contact)
Ketel Marte, SS (152 EP, +17 GAP, 81% Contact) – 16 at-bats here
Daniel Descalso, IF/OF (133 EP, +40 GAP, 77% Contact)
Gregor Blanco, OF (127 EP, +29 GAP, 73% Contact)
David Peralta, OF (100 EP, -3 GAP, 86% Contact)
Jake Lamb, 3B (99 EP, -62 GAP, 73% Contact) – Only 30% FB rate over last 30 days has driven down his EP, but 54% over last week. In fact, everybody but Iannetta and Peralta has been above average (100) in EP over the last week.
That’s the list! If you have any specific asks, feel free to @ me in Slack and check the tables for all updated bats in preparation for today’s slate!
Here is the full table of top expected power hitters, top expected power hitters with high contact rates, and another table for leaders in GAP, a.k.a. Most Owed Power as well as GAP w/High Contact. The new charts on Top Contact and Last Seven Days are in there as well. There is a lot to find in there, so fire away with any questions – find me in the Premium Slack Chat (@jaywalker72). I hope you find all the power today – good luck! – JW