JAYWALKER’S POWER STATION for 7/6/17
The Power Report is back for today’s travel day split slate, with four early games and seven main slate contests, so let’s get to it!
First a recap of the metrics we are looking at here:
Expected Power, which is a Baseball HQ/Baseball Info Solutions metric that looks at hard hit percentages, line drive and fly ball rates, and shows what that batters’ rating is on a 100 is average scale.
Actual Power, which is the metric that displays the production that players have actually produced.
GAP: The difference between the two. Positive gaps mean they have underproduced to their metrics, whereas negative indicates regression could soon be coming. It is to show how “real” their production has been and if they are poised for progression or regression.
The purpose of the exercise is to see who is legit, who has been lucky or relatively so, and who has been unlucky and perhaps due for bounce back. Or maybe it is a hitter that has been in a slump, but is showing signs of above average hard contact/power.
The red cells are simply to highlight that they are more volatile due to their low contact rate (Chris/Khris Davis, for examples).
I like to look at last 30 days’ samples to account for adjustments and latest trends. There is a table in the chart for top expected power hitters over the last 30 days with contact rates over 75% for that span, in case you wanted to see a list free from complete windmills like Joey Gallo, Chris/Khris Davis, Alex Avila and the like. Also, I have added a Top Contact table that has all the highest % contact plays with at least the average 100 expected power.
Finally, I added one last table to the report and that is a quick look at the expected power over just the last seven days, with a high contact (75% contact) and 10 at-bat filter applied.
Can’t stress enough to go through the tables and get used to what you are seeing there in addition to the specific write-ups I do in this report – folks are getting an edge with the data, for sure.
These help us identify who might be relatively off the radar and can be exploited for our success in tournaments tonight!
MAIN SLATE GEMS:
Right off the bat, we look for the worst pitcher, which is tough to do on this slate, with soooooo many good pitchers on it, it will push ownership towards the few islands of offensive prosperity there are tonight.
To me, the top target are the Twins against RHP Dylan Bundy, who has given up over 3 HR/9 IP over the last 30 days, registers a double digit walk rate and over 50% flyballs in the hot night of Minnesota tonight. So who are the top bats for MIN?
Jason Castro, C (148 EP, +67 GAP, 70% Contact)
Brian Dozier, 2B (141 EP, +31 GAP, 81% Contact)
Eddie Rosario, OF (133 EP, +12 GAP, 79% Contact)
Miguel Sano, 3B (130 EP, +2 GAP, 67% Contact)
And, over the last seven days:
Max Kepler, OF (145 EP, -48 GAP, 76% Contact)
Robert Grossman, OF (132 EP, +36 GAP, 80% Contact)
The Washington Nationals have not hit well lately, but they are a top five team in wRC+ at home vs. RHP over the last 30 days. They have Mike Foltynewicz going against them, and he has a 28% GB rate, and 5.10 SIERA and a 10.3% walk rate over his last 30 days. Top Nats bats:
Anthony Rendon, 3B (165 EP, +6 GAP, 85% Contact)
Adam Lind, 1B (147 EP, +70 GAP, 76% Contact)
Brian Goodwin, OF (116 EP, -49 GAP, 70% Contact)
Ryan Zimmerman, 1B (107 EP, +27 GAP, 85% Contact)
Daniel Murphy, 2B (99 EP, -23 GAP, 92% Contact)
As always, the question is “Where is Bryce Harper – surely he is a top power bat?” No, he is not. Between his high GB rate (44% over L30) and lack of overall hard contact (probably from not seeing good pitches, resulting in his elite 14% walk rate, he never scores well here and I do not typically roster him, unless in stacks, especially since he is always the most owned Nationals bat of the them all.
The tables will turn, one day, against SEA RHP Sam Gaviglio, who has an elite GB rate, but also a SIERA that is nearly two runs more than his basic ERA. Oakland bats can be fun, and are typically best in one or two-offs, but here are the top bats, anyway.
Franklin Barreto, SS (172 EP, +53 GAP, 57% Contact)
Ryon Healy, 1B/3B (143 EP, -21 GAP, 60% Contact)
Matt Joyce, OF (133 EP, -2 GAP, 78% Contact)
Jed Lowrie, 2B (120 EP, +5 GAP, 74% Contact)
Bruce Maxwell, C (114 EP, +38 GAP, 69% Contact)
Khris Davis, OF (111 EP, -57 GAP, 63% Contact)
Lastly, the Houston Astros are great in every split this season, and they are the #3 team in wRC+ against LHP on the road since May 1st (324 PA) and get the volatile Francisco Liriano in the hitter friendly Rogers Centre tonight. Top bats?
SIDENOTE: Only Jake Marisnick has a contact rate lower than 70% over the past 30 days and only George Springer (77%!) is below 80%. This is why you do not target Astros with SPs. Let us continue.
Josh Reddick, OF (183 EP, +7 GAP, 86% Contact)
George Springer, OF (173 EP, -30 GAP, 77% Contact)
Carlos Beltran, OF (145 EP, +40 GAP, 80% Contact)
Yulieski Gurriel, 1B/3B (131 EP, -14 GAP, 87% Contact)
Alex Bregman, 3B (115 EP, +21 GAP, 87% Contact)
I left off Marisnick, who has a 133 EP and Brian McCann, who likely won’t play but has a 127 EP with 80% Contact rate.
Evan Gattis, C, was in a slump but has come out of it over the last seven days with a (249 EP, +10 GAP, 83% Contact) rate – especially good on the contact, which we do not typically associate with Gattis.
Here are some potential one-offs from the rest of the slate:
Andrew Benintendi, OF, BOS (177 EP, +41 GAP, 78% Contact)
Mookie Betts, OF, BOS (140 EP, +18 GAP, 93% Contact)
Kyle Seager, 3B, SEA (132 EP, +13 GAP, 84% Contact)
Robinson Cano, 2B, SEA (130 EP, +32 GAP, 87% Contact)
Nelson Cruz, OF, SEA (110 EP, +27 GAP, 77% Contact) – Ok, you can stack Seattle against Blackburn, too!
Kurt Suzuki, C, ATL (117 EP, +24 GAP, 88% Contact)
That’s the list! If you have any specific asks, feel free to @ me in Slack and check the tables for all updated bats in preparation for today’s slate!
EARLY SLATE NUGGETS:
It is going to be tough to stay away from a very chalky Rockies stack against Sal Romano in the 100 degree temps of Denver this afternoon. Top bats on the Rockies, and the first name will surprise some:
Pat Valaika, SS (163 EP, +20 GAP, 78% Contact) – Sneaky and could be batting sixth today if DJLM is not playing today.
Nolan Arenado, 3B (138 EP, +43 GAP, 81% Contact)
Mark Reynolds, 1B (137 EP, -22 GAP, 59% Contact)
Charlie Blackmon, OF (108 EP, -11 GAP, 77% Contact)
Alexi Amarista, IF/OF (107 EP, +86 GAP, 81% Contact)
Here are some other top bats on the slate:
Matt Carpenter, 1B, STL (232 EP, +91 GAP, 84% Contact) – Goes against the not-so-bold look of MIA RHP Tom Koehler in favorable temps.
Brandon Belt, 1B, SF (203 EP, +65 GAP, 76% Contact) – Almost have to play him if you are not rostering Sanchez today.
Manny Pina, C, MIL (192 EP, +53 GAP, 79% Contact) – Great option at catcher today if you are not rostering Mike Montgomery.
Scooter Gennett, 2B, CIN (176 EP, -36 GAP, 80% Contact) – A little overproduced, but a high contact bat in Denver today is a worthy target.
Joey Votto, 1B, CIN (164 EP, +8 GAP, 91% Contact) – An elite contact bat like Votto is always worth the $$$ in this situation.
Buster Posey, C/1B, SFG (162 EP, +45 GAP, 86% Contact) – Another solid Giants bat in the middle of the lineup – the Posey/Belt combo could be fruitful today.
Alex Avila, C/1B, DET (195 EP, +76 GAP, 63% Contact) – Windmill? Sure, but GAAAAAAP!
Brandon Crawford, SS, SFG (122 EP, +60 GAP, 75% Contact) – More reason to be concerned with Sanchez, as here is another middle of the Giants lineup GAP stick.
Hunter Pence, OF, SFG (131 EP, +53 GAP, 82% Contact) – That is it, I am off of Sanchez now.
Gorkys Hernandez, OF, SFG (106 EP, +51 GAP, 78% Contact) – GIANTZZZZZ!
Ian Kinsler, 2B, DET (127 EP, +26 GAP, 89% Contact)
- Realmuto, C, MIA (132 EP, +21 GAP, 83% Contact) – Lineup bump for JT to second.
Ryan Braun, OF, MIL LAST SEVEN (210 EP, +42 GAP, 86% Contact)
Here is the full table of top expected power hitters, top expected power hitters with high contact rates, and another table for leaders in GAP, a.k.a. Most Owed Power as well as GAP w/High Contact. The new charts on Top Contact and Last Seven Days are in there as well. There is a lot to find in there, so fire away with any questions – find me in the Premium Slack Chat (@jaywalker72). I hope you find all the power today – good luck! – JW