JAYWALKER’S POWER STATION for 7/5/17

 

The Power Report is back for today’s back-to-work split slate, with three early games and 12 main slate contests, so let’s get to it!

First a recap of the metrics we are looking at here:

Expected Power, which is a Baseball HQ/Baseball Info Solutions metric that looks at hard hit percentages, line drive and fly ball rates, and shows what that batters’ rating is on a 100 is average scale.

Actual Power, which is the metric that displays the production that players have actually produced.

GAP: The difference between the two. Positive gaps mean they have underproduced to their metrics, whereas negative indicates regression could soon be coming. It is to show how “real” their production has been and if they are poised for progression or regression.

The purpose of the exercise is to see who is legit, who has been lucky or relatively so, and who has been unlucky and perhaps due for bounce back. Or maybe it is a hitter that has been in a slump, but is showing signs of above average hard contact/power.

The red cells are simply to highlight that they are more volatile due to their low contact rate (Chris/Khris Davis, for examples).

I like to look at last 30 days’ samples to account for adjustments and latest trends. There is a table in the chart for top expected power hitters over the last 30 days with contact rates over 75% for that span, in case you wanted to see a list free from complete windmills like Joey Gallo, Chris/Khris Davis, Alex Avila and the like. Also, I have added a Top Contact table that has all the highest % contact plays with at least the average 100 expected power.

Finally, I added one last table to the report and that is a quick look at the expected power over just the last seven days, with a high contact (75% contact) and 10 at-bat filter applied.

Can’t stress enough to go through the tables and get used to what you are seeing there in addition to the specific write-ups I do in this report – folks are getting an edge with the data, for sure.

These help us identify who might be relatively off the radar and can be exploited for our success in tournaments tonight!

MAIN SLATE GEMS!

Tigers are chalk again tonight against Ty Blach away from San Francisco. Here are the top expected Tigers bats tonight:

Alex Avila, C/1B (200 EP, +78 GAP, 63% Contact)

Justin Upton, OF (137 EP, -18 GAP, 76% Contact)

Mikie Mahtook, OF (134 EP, +78 GAP, 87% Contact)

Ian Kinsler, 2B (127 EP, +20 GAP, 88% Contact)

Miguel Cabrera, 1B (125 EP, -5 GAP, 75% Contact)

James McCann, C (117 EP, -13 GAP, 77% Contact)

JD Martinez, OF (114 EP, -34 GAP, 73% Contact)

Nick Castellanos, 3B (112 EP, -27 GAP, 77% Contact)

 

Houston stack went off last night and the low cost plays helped those who rostered Kluber/Kershaw to make some $$. Against LHP Jaime Garcia, the Astros have a 5.1 run projected total and here are the top expected bats:

George Springer, OF (191 EP, -39 GAP, 77% Contact)

Josh Reddick, OF (181 EP, +17 GAP, 88% Contact)

Yulieski Gurriel, 3B/1B (140 EP, -19 GAP, 87% Contact)

Alex Bregman, 3B (106 EP, +19 GAP, 86% Contact)

 

The Twins have a huge expected run total of nearly six runs, so we should look at the top bats on their side as they go against low GB rate, low K rate LAA RHP Parker Bridwell.

Jason Castro, C (161 EP, +57 GAP, 69% Contact)

Brian Dozier, 2B (143 EP, +31 GAP, 80% Contact)

Miguel Sano, 3B (136 EP, -4 GAP, 69% Contact)

Eddie Rosario, OF (129 EP, +12 GAP, 75% Contact)

On the LAST SEVEN scan, we see Dozier and Sano above average and they are joined by Max Kepler (174 EP, -65 GAP, 67% Contact).

 

Here are some strong one-offs from tonight’s action:

Curtis Granderson, OF, NYM  (237 EP, +1 GAP, 78% Contact) – The Grandy Man CAN!

Matt Carpenter, 1B, STL (232 EP, +90 GAP, 83% Contact) – Still poppin and preggo with GAP

Justin Turner, 3B, LAD (202 EP, +65 GAP, 93% Contact) – ELITE contact rate and tons of GAP due to a low HR/FB rate.

Andrew Benintendi, OF, BOS (189 EP, +27 GAP, 79% Contact) – You missed his big catchup game, but he still has some GAP and has adjusted to the pitching after they adjusted to him.

Scooter Gennett, 2B, CIN (186 EP, -26 GAP, 80% Contact)

Buster Posey, C, SFG (157 EP, +40 GAP, 86% Contact)

Joey Votto, 1B, CIN (157 EP, +3 GAP, 92% Contact) – Locked in right now and faces a SP that people like in Jon Gray.

Nolan Arenado, 3B, COL (141 EP, +44 GAP, 80% Contact) – So good and now his output has dropped below average. Will bounce back.

That’s the list! If you have any specific asks, feel free to @ me in Slack and check the tables for all updated bats in preparation for today’s slate!

 

EARLY SLATE NUGGETS:

Right from the jump, Yankees stacks will be popular, so here are the top bats, above the 100 is average line, right now for the Bronx Bombers:

Aaron Judge, OF, Batting Second (167 EP, -60 GAP, 63% Contact)

Gary Sanchez, C, Batting Third (114 EP, -48 GAP, 74% Contact)

Tyler Wade, SS/OF, Batting Ninth (110 EP, +52 GAP, 65% Contact)

Grading out the SPs on the short slate, the worst one is John Lackey, who faces a Rays team that is sixth in wRC+ (111) over the last 30 days vs. RHP on the road (345 PA). Here are the top probable bats, again above average, for the visiting Rays:

Logan Morrison, 1B (177 EP, -8 GAP, 78% Contact)

Wilson Ramos, C (161 EP, +44 GAP, 83% Contact)

Steven Souza, OF (126 EP, -22 GAP, 69% Contact)

Tim Beckham, SS (123 EP, +35 GAP, 68% Contact)

High powered one-offs from the other games:

Franklin Barreto, SS, OAK (200 EP, +63 GAP, 55% Contact)

Matt Davidson, 1B/3B, CHW (199 EP, -25 GAP, 51% Contact)

Ian Happ, 2B/OF, CHC (158 EP, -60 GAP, 68% Contact)

Justin Smoak, 1B, TOR (156 EP, -14 GAP, 66% Contact)

Kendrys Morales, 1B, TOR (148 EP, +32 GAP, 66% Contact)

Matt Joyce, OF, OAK (142 EP, +2 GAP, 78% Contact)

Ryon Healy, 1B/3B, OAK (135 EP, -26 GAP, 70% Contact)

Todd Frazier, 3B, CHW (135 EP, -26 GAP, 77% Contact)

Willson Contreras, C, CHC (131 EP, -8 GAP, 72% Contact)

Avisail Garcia, OF, CHW (130 EP, +30 GAP, 76% Contact)

Jose Abreu, 1B, CHW (126 EP, -17 GAP, 83% Contact)

Here is the full table of top expected power hitters, top expected power hitters with high contact rates, and another table for leaders in GAP, a.k.a. Most Owed Power as well as GAP w/High Contact. The new charts on Top Contact and Last Seven Days are in there as well. There is a lot to find in there, so fire away with any questions – find me in the Premium Slack Chat (@jaywalker72). I hope you find all the power today – good luck! – JW

 

POWER REPORT TABLE 070517 (click here)

Here is the full table of top expected power hitters, top expected power hitters with high contact rates, and another table for leaders in GAP, a.k.a. Most Owed Power as well as GAP w/High Contact. The new charts on Top Contact and Last Seven Days are in there as well. There is a lot to find in there, so fire away with any questions – find me in the Premium Slack Chat (@jaywalker72). I hope you find all the power today – good luck! – JW