JAYWALKER’S POWER STATION for 7/4/17
The Power Report makes a special Independence Day appearance and, today, we are going to do something different: We are going to run down the current top 5 at each position and top 10 in outfield as we near the mythical midpoint to the season. All the tables are updated for the purpose of today’s slate as well.
First a recap of the metrics we are looking at here:
Expected Power, which is a Baseball HQ/Baseball Info Solutions metric that looks at hard hit percentages, line drive and fly ball rates, and shows what that batters’ rating is on a 100 is average scale.
Actual Power, which is the metric that displays the production that players have actually produced.
GAP: The difference between the two. Positive gaps mean they have underproduced to their metrics, whereas negative indicates regression could soon be coming. It is to show how “real” their production has been and if they are poised for progression or regression.
The purpose of the exercise is to see who is legit, who has been lucky or relatively so, and who has been unlucky and perhaps due for bounce back. Or maybe it is a hitter that has been in a slump, but is showing signs of above average hard contact/power.
The red cells are simply to highlight that they are more volatile due to their low contact rate (Chris/Khris Davis, for examples).
I like to look at last 30 days’ samples to account for adjustments and latest trends. There is a table in the chart for top expected power hitters over the last 30 days with contact rates over 75% for that span, in case you wanted to see a list free from complete windmills like Joey Gallo, Chris/Khris Davis, Alex Avila and the like. Also, I have added a Top Contact table that has all the highest % contact plays with at least the average 100 expected power.
Finally, I added one last table to the report and that is a quick look at the expected power over just the last seven days, with a high contact (75% contact) and 10 at-bat filter applied.
Can’t stress enough to go through the tables and get used to what you are seeing there in addition to the specific write-ups I do in this report – folks are getting an edge with the data, for sure.
These help us identify who might be relatively off the radar and can be exploited for our success in tournaments tonight!
Now the top expected power at each position for the season (MIN 70 AB):
Alex Avila, C, DET (235 EP, +55 GAP, 64% Contact) – Avila has been great all season for power and, with his 2-slot role in the Tigers lineup, Avila has been a very consistent, popular play and has gone from GPP only catching power punt to the Chalkmaster General at the position this season.
Robinson Chirinos, C, TEX (188 EP, -8 GAP, 70% Contact)
Chris Herrmann, C, ARI (182 EP, +66 GAP, 74% Contact) – GET TO THE CHOPPAH! So good for and, like Chirinos and Avila above him, is on this list every season. No fluke.
Salvador Perez, C, KCR (163 EP, +35 GAP, 80% Contact) – Plays every day, middle of the lineup and has not dropped off in hard contact and high contact all season. Avila emerging in the 2-slot is the only thing that has prevented Perez from being the chalk catcher this season.
Chris Gimenez, C, MIN (144 EP, +17 GAP, 69% Contact) – Part time power punt at the bottom of the Twins lineup. Sort of a secret Mike Zunino.
TOP FIRST BASEMEN:
Going to ten here, too – so many good bats at this position.
Matt Carpenter, 1B, STL (187 EP, +59 GAP, 75% Contact) – He has been hurt, missed time, and does not seem to get it done when I play him, personally, but here he is, at the top of the biggest power position there is. Always a great cash play, but given the competition at the position, is also an excellent tourney play.
Freddie Freeman, 1B, ATL (183 EP, -41 GAP, 77% Contact) – Get well soon, Freddie.
Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, ARI (180 EP, +26 GAP, 77% Contact)
Logan Morrison, 1B, TAM (175 EP, -4 GAP, 74% Contact) – So good all season and the anchor of a powerful Rays lineup. Another excellent tourney play and auto play on FantasyDraft in most slates.
Chris Davis, 1B, BAL (163 EP, -7 GAP, 56% Contact)
Eric Thames, 1B, MIL (163 EP, -26 GAP, 68% Contact) – Out of nowhere to this elite list of power bats. Hanging tough though the contact rate is dropping.
Adam Lind, 1B, WAS (159 EP, +27 GAP, 82% Contact)
John Jaso, 1B, PIT (158 EP, +19 GAP, 76% Contact)
Lucas Duda, 1B, NYM (158 EP, -37 GAP, 70% Contact)
Joey Votto, 1B, CIN (157 EP, +4 GAP, 87% Contact) – Top cash game bat at the position – elite contact bat with power, really getting back to his MVP form. Locked in, totally.
Ryan Schimpf, 2B, SDP (144 EP, -34 GAP, 58% Contact) – Schimpf defined all or nothing – and the Padres could not take it anymore and sent him packing. In the 58% of the times he made contact, it was hard contact, but still had only .150 BABIP. If he had hit .208 instead of .158 would the Padres have stuck with it? Who knows, but the power is real.
Scooter Gennett, 2B, CIN (143 EP, -12 GAP, 76% Contact) – Mr. Four Home Runs. Gennett was not even playing regularly with solid power numbers, but now is locked in the Reds lineup against RHP.
Brian Dozier, 2B, MIN (132 EP, +28 GAP, 79% Contact)
Devon Travis, 2B, TOR (131 EP, +15 GAP, 79% Contact)
Neil Walker, 2B, NYM (129 EP, +23 GAP, 84% Contact) – So many guys just below Walker, who has been a high contact, high power, middle of the Mets lineup cog. Robinson Cano, Jed Lowrie, Whit Merrifield, Josh Harrison, Ian Kinsler just below Walker.
Chad Pinder, OAK (157 EP, -14 GAP, 66% Contact) – Pinder emerged in May and it has been an up and down ride through the A’s lineup.
Daniel Descalso, ARI (145 EP, +44 GAP, 74% Contact) – Descalso is listed here from the stat service I use, so I will list another real SS, but let me talk about Descalso for a moment. Here he is, a Rockies castoff and there were hangups on DD coming into the season but he has provided a power bat at 2B/OF on DK most of the season and only recently has seen his salary and ownership rise.
Corey Seager, LAD (142 EP, +9 GAP, 75% Contact)
Trevor Story, COL (142 EP, +15 GAP, 62% Contact) – Story has had a stereotypical sophomore slump, complete with time off to renew. The power is still there, but the plate discipline still needs work.
Tim Beckham, TAM (122 EP, +30 GAP, 66% Contact)
Francisco Lindor, CLE (121 EP, +8 GAP, 85% Contact) – The cash game SS due to his high contact rate, though you could make the case for Seager, too, but Lindor has the highest floor due to lineup, venue and contact rate.
Going to go to ten at this big position, too.
Joey Gallo, TEX (213 EP, -22 GAP, 55% Contact) – Gallo has been as advertised: A free swining, low contact, high power bat that the Rangers can afford to bury in the 8-9 slots in their lineup.
Matt Davidson, CHI (167 EP, -32 GAP, 56% Contact)
Miguel Sano, MIN (167 EP, -21 GAP, 61% Contact) – Only difference between Sano and Gallo is 150 of BABIP in favor of Sano as the walk and contact rates are similar for the season. Sano, however, has the plumb cleanup slot in Minnesota while Texas buries Gallo.
Ryon Healy, OAK (153 EP, +9 GAP, 72% Contact) – One of the top players in May that had massive GAP and slowly started to see that production manifest on the field, Healy remains a great tourney play, even if his price Is no longer at the discount we got him at in May.
Nolan Areando, COL (144 EP, +6 GAP, 82% Contact)
Justin Turner, LAD (139 EP, +43 GAP, 88% Contact) – How can a guy with a .410 BABIP have GAP? The singles have come but the power stats have not for Turner, who has only seven HR in 212 AB despite his massive hard contact and 40% FB rate. A HR/RB rate 4-5% lower than his par value has to do with that.
Nick Castellanos, DET (139 EP, +22 GAP, 73% Contact)
Kyle Seager, SEA (136 EP, +44 GAP, 82% Contact) – He has been riddled with GAP for over a month – his streak will come soon.
Jedd Gyorko, STL (136 EP, +12 GAP, 77% Contact)
Manny Machado, BAL (133 EP, +16 GAP, 77% Contact)
Cody Bellinger, LAD (188 EP, -38 GAP, 67% Contact)
Colby Rasmus, TAM (187 EP, -10 GAP, 63% Contact)
Khris Davis, OAK (177 EP, -15 GAP, 63% Contact)
Aaron Judge, NYY (169 EP, -53 GAP, 65% Contact) – Bellinger and Judge. Nice additions to a season that saw Ortiz leave this list.
Michael Conforto, NYM (169 EP, +5 GAP, 70% Contact)
JD Martinez, DET (166 EP, -30 GAP, 73% Contact)
Jay Bruce, NYM (163 EP, +21 GAP, 76% Contact)
Justin Upton, DET (161 EP, +9 GAP, 69% Contact)
Yoenis Cespedes, NYM (160 EP, +26 GAP, 81% Contact)
Yasmany Tomas, ARI (160 EP, -17 GAP, 70% Contact)
Curtis Granderson, NYM (159 EP, +16 GAP, 70% Contact) – Look at all the Mets on this list. This is why I cannot target this team – too many power bats.
That’s the list! If you have any specific asks, feel free to @ me in Slack and check the tables for all updated bats in preparation for today’s slate!
Here is the full table of top expected power hitters, top expected power hitters with high contact rates, and another table for leaders in GAP, a.k.a. Most Owed Power as well as GAP w/High Contact. The new charts on Top Contact and Last Seven Days are in there as well. There is a lot to find in there, so fire away with any questions – find me in the Premium Slack Chat (@jaywalker72). I hope you find all the power today – good luck! – JW