JAYWALKER’S POWER STATION for 7/3/17
The Power Report makes its triumphant return after a weeklong vaca that saw many of the guys we were tracking here come to life, which is what we are looking at this chart for. There is an eight-game slate tonight that we can jump back into – by the way, what was with all the undeserving “power” hitters that made the All-Star game? Pffff – they certainly are not on The Power Report. Hit it!
First a recap of the metrics we are looking at here:
Expected Power, which is a Baseball HQ/Baseball Info Solutions metric that looks at hard hit percentages, line drive and fly ball rates, and shows what that batters’ rating is on a 100 is average scale.
Actual Power, which is the metric that displays the production that players have actually produced.
GAP: The difference between the two. Positive gaps mean they have underproduced to their metrics, whereas negative indicates regression could soon be coming. It is to show how “real” their production has been and if they are poised for progression or regression.
The purpose of the exercise is to see who is legit, who has been lucky or relatively so, and who has been unlucky and perhaps due for bounce back. Or maybe it is a hitter that has been in a slump, but is showing signs of above average hard contact/power.
The red cells are simply to highlight that they are more volatile due to their low contact rate (Chris/Khris Davis, for examples).
I like to look at last 30 days’ samples to account for adjustments and latest trends. There is a table in the chart for top expected power hitters over the last 30 days with contact rates over 75% for that span, in case you wanted to see a list free from complete windmills like Joey Gallo, Chris/Khris Davis, Alex Avila and the like. Also, I have added a Top Contact table that has all the highest % contact plays with at least the average 100 expected power.
Finally, I added one last table to the report and that is a quick look at the expected power over just the last seven days, with a high contact (75% contact) and 10 at-bat filter applied.
Can’t stress enough to go through the tables and get used to what you are seeing there in addition to the specific write-ups I do in this report – folks are getting an edge with the data, for sure.
These help us identify who might be relatively off the radar and can be exploited for our success in tournaments tonight!
MAIN SLATE GEMS:
To break things in after being gone for a week, Matt Carpenter, 1B, STL (224 EP, +71 GAP, 80% Contact) is a great place to begin. Hot weather in the STL, a GPP friendly wrong-way matchup with Jeff Locke of the Marlins and Carp being a reasonable price on DK/FDRAFT kicks things off well.
His teammate, Randal Grichuk, OF (235 EP, +34 GAP, 66% Contact) was all over our charts/tables for the entirety of his absence from the Cardinals lineup. Now that he has returned, he fell below the 40 AB min for the L30, but there he is, among our LAST SEVEN leaders, and is batting sixth tonight.
Two familiar Seattle bats in the mix as well, especially since they will be overlooked on a slate where there are plenty of warm weather, hitter ballpark plays. The Mariners, however, get to face Ian Kennedy, who has been even worse over the last 30 days that he was coming into that stretch, which is hard to fathom. Kennedy has given up 2.2 HR/9 IP and carries a 5.00 SIERA over that span. Robinson Cano, 2B, SEA (146 EP, +49 GAP, 90% Contact) and Kyle Seager, 3B (146 EP, +31 GAP, 83% Contact) lead the usual suspects in Seattle’s lineup against Kennedy.
Oakland RHP Cotton has struggled with power hitting RHH and the White Sox have been much better (11th over L30 in wRC+ on road) in that split. The weather is not great for offense, but a one-off or two-off here in lower ownership are Matt Davidson, 1B/3B (229 EP, -8 GAP, 52% Contact) and Todd Frazier, 3B (133 EP, -24 GAP, 75% Contact, 47% FB rate).
On the other side against the recently returned Carlos Rodon (LHP), the A’s have two guys near the top of expected power, even if one, like Grichuk, fell below our 40 AB min for the tables. Matt Olson, OF (214 EP, +25 GAP, 59% Contact) likely will play, but in a less favorable split and Franklin Barreto, SS (165 EP, +99 GAP, 55% Contact) offers some low contact, high power, GAP potential at SS.
In the heat of Texas, Boston has some RHH bats to attack Martin Perez, who never seems to get blown out despite his high contact rate. However, Hanley Ramirez, 1B (144 EP, +1 GAP, 79% Contact) and Mookie Betts, OF (144 EP, +19 GAP, 92 % Contact) lead the way. Chris Young, OF, BOS has the right split, contact and fly ball rates, but has not been making that contact with any authority, falling to below 70 in expected power, both in L30 and L7 splits.
Four Texas Rangers are atop the Expected Power Leaders, and three are in the lineup tonight, albeit at the bottom.
Carlos Gomez, 6th, OF (244 EP, -49 GAP, 45% Contact) – Forty-Five Percent!
Mike Napoli, 7th, 1B (232 EP, +46 GAP, 55% Contact)
Joey Gallo, 9th, 1B/3B (243 EP, +12 GAP, 55% Contact)
As always with low contact guys, it is hard to get behind stacking them because that is a whole lot of un-contact to put in your lineups, but the power they own is prodigious, blending them with guys like Adrian Beltre, 3B (117 EP, 86% Contact) and some low 70% guys like Shin-Soo Choo, Rougned Odor and Nomar Mazara, makes for an interesting stack.
Check the tables for Coors Field batters, GAP leaders, CONTACT leaders and more hitters/one-offs from the rest of the slate tonight!
Here is the full table of top expected power hitters, top expected power hitters with high contact rates, and another table for leaders in GAP, a.k.a. Most Owed Power as well as GAP w/High Contact. The new charts on Top Contact and Last Seven Days are in there as well. There is a lot to find in there, so fire away with any questions – find me in the Premium Slack Chat (@jaywalker72). I hope you find all the power today – good luck! – JW