JAYWALKER’S POWER STATION for 7/29/17
The Power Report is back for a WEEKEND! 15-game super slate, so let’s get to the top stacks as quickly as possible!
First a recap of the metrics we are looking at here:
Can’t stress enough to go through the tables and get used to what you are seeing there in addition to the specific write-ups I do in this report – folks are getting an edge with the data, for sure.
We released a video with me explaining the charts, how to use them, use cases, etc. at the link below:
Expected Power, which is a Baseball HQ/Baseball Info Solutions metric that looks at hard hit percentages, line drive and fly ball rates, and shows what that batters’ rating is on a 100 is average scale.
Actual Power, which is the metric that displays the production that players have actually produced.
GAP: The difference between the two. Positive gaps mean they have underproduced to their metrics, whereas negative indicates regression could soon be coming. It is to show how “real” their production has been and if they are poised for progression or regression.
The purpose of the exercise is to see who is legit, who has been lucky or relatively so, and who has been unlucky and perhaps due for bounce back. Or maybe it is a hitter that has been in a slump, but is showing signs of above average hard contact/power.
The red cells are simply to highlight that they are more volatile due to their low contact rate (Chris/Khris Davis, for examples).
I like to look at last 30 days’ samples to account for adjustments and latest trends. There is a table in the chart for top expected power hitters over the last 30 days with contact rates over 75% for that span, in case you wanted to see a list free from complete windmills like Joey Gallo, Chris/Khris Davis, Alex Avila and the like. Also, a Top Contact table that has all the highest % contact plays with at least the average 100 expected power.
Finally, I added one last table to the report and that is a quick look at the expected power over just the last seven days, with a high contact (75% contact) and 10 at-bat filter applied.
These help us identify who might be relatively off the radar and can be exploited for our success in tournaments tonight!
NEW YORK YANKEES vs. Blake Snell (EARLY)
An easy target is going to be the Yankees at home, where they crush in almost every split. TAM LHP Blake Snell is a good talent and has K-upside when he pitches, but he also gives up a lot of fly balls (45.2% over L30) and has control issues (12.1% walk rate L30). Do those two things in tandem in Yankee Stadium, even against RHH, and the results will not be in your favor.
Aaron Judge, OF (189 EP, +22 GAP, 57% Contact) – Likely to whiff twice, walk once and homer today.
Clint Frazier, OF (187 EP, +12 GAP, 69% Contact)
Todd Frazier, 3B (131 EP, +2 GAP, 73% Contact)
Gary Sanchez, C (108 EP, +27 GAP, 72% Contact)
Brett Gardner, OF (104 EP, -7 GAP, 80% Contact)
LOS ANGELES DODGERS vs. Ty Blach (EARLY)
The Dodgers laid a vs. LHP egg at home last night against the mighty Matt Moore but their offensive numbers say to take another hack at them against Blach because of their .232 ISO at home against LHP (656 PAs) and 119 wRC+.
Justin Turner, 3B (209 EP, +82 GAP, 88% Contact)
Corey Seager, SS (206 EP, +34 GAP, 66% Contact)
Cody Bellinger, 1B/OF (140 EP, +28 GAP, 73% Contact)
Yasmani Grandal, C (139 EP, -35 GAP, 79% Contact)
Kiki Hernandez, SS/OF (130 EP, +41 GAP, 73% Contact)
Chris Taylor, 2B/OF (125 EP, -35 GAP, 73% Contact)
BALTIMORE ORIOLES at Austin Bibens-Dirkx
This has not been a great split for BAL but the matchup against ABD is too good to ignore. ABD has been slaughtered at home this season, with nearly a 6.00 xFIP, over 40% hard contact and extra base hits galore.
Chris Davis, 1B (184 EP, +26 GAP, 58% Contact)
Seth Smith, OF (164 EP,+25 GAP, 79% Contact)
Jonathan Schoop, 2B (124 EP, -10 GAP, 77% Contact)
Mark Trumbo, OF (122 EP, -17 GAP, 68% Contact)
Ruben Tejada, SS (109 EP, +69 GAP, 90% Contact)
Manny Machado, 3B (106 EP, +38 GAP, 84% Contact)
CLEVELAND INDIANS at Miguel Gonzalez
It is somewhat difficult to recommend Cleveland here because, as not good as Miguel is, he rarely gives up the long ball to pay off the stack. However, with the top five offense of the Indians rolling through and the abundance of LHH that can take advantage of the walks/contact that Gonzalez will allow, they are certainly worthy of listing here.
Edwin Encarnacion, 1B (166 EP, +38 GAP, 79% Contact)
Carlos Santana, 1B (149 EP, -32 GAP, 78% Contact)
Francisco Lindor, SS (108 EP, +31 GAP, 83% Contact)
Both regular starters Jose Ramirez and Yan Gomes are below the 100 average for EP, but both have exceptional contact rates (Ramirez 91%, Gomes 81%) and should be considered in stack.
CHICAGO CUBS at Junior Guerra
The Cubs are third in wRC+ against RHP/A over their last 717 PAs, with a .227 ISO in that effort. Junior Guerra has produced strikeouts but, like Blake Snell, walks a lot (12.5%) and offers up a lot of fly balls (43.1%) which leads to big innings.
Albert Almora, OF (156 EP, +59 GAP, 76% Contact)
Kyle Schwarber, OF (145 EP, -85 GAP, 69% Contact)
Anthony Rizzo, 1B (138 EP, -14 GAP, 83% Contact)
Addison Russell, SS (130 EP, +3 GAP, 74% Contact)
Willson Contreras, C (108 EP, -54 GAP, 80% Contact)
Luis Valbuena, 1B, LAA (247 EP, +34 GAP, 74% Contact) (EARLY) – If in lineup against TOR Liriano
Justin Smoak, 1B, TOR (234 EP, +43 GAP, 73% Contact) (EARLY) – Every day, every day – gets Yusmeiro Petit to pick on in Rogers Centre today.
Ryan Braun, OF, MIL (195 EP, +43 GAP, 82% Contact)
Mike Napoli, 1B, TEX (195 EP, -23 GAP, 67% Contact)
Jay Bruce, OF, NYM (194 EP, +50 GAP, 70% Contact) (EARLY) – Mets just missed top stack status with Yovani Gallardo out there.
Giancarlo Stanton, OF, MIA (165 EP, -78 GAP, 73% Contact) – Reds SP Adleman is prone to giving up the long ball.
AJ Pollock, OF, ARI (160 EP, +0 GAP, 85% Contact) – Pollock has been bringing the bat and Mike Leake has been struggling mightily since the summer began.
Matt Chapman, 3B, OAK (157 EP, -40 GAP, 62% Contact) – Chapman is still under 3K on DK, provides long ball upside against LHP Mejia.
Aaron Altherr, OF, PHI (198 EP, -69 GAP, 67% Contact) – Good home matchup against LHP Newcomb.
Charlie Blackmon, OF, COL (192 EP, +30 GAP, 80% Contact) – Tanner Roark actually projects as a top starter tonight, but Chuck will be a tough roadblock along the way.
Bryce Harper, OF, WAS (L7: 307 EP, +18 GAP, 78% Contact) – New readers may say, duh, Bryce Harper, but his appearance on TPR is unique and explains that he is truly locked in with excellent hard contact and fly ball rates.
And that’s the list – ONE OFFS can be found in the tables, but with so many super stacks and plays here, it makes sense to perhaps target one of the seven teams I have listed above for that.
Here is the full table of top expected power hitters, top expected power hitters with high contact rates, and another table for leaders in GAP, a.k.a. Most Owed Power as well as GAP w/High Contact. Specialty charts on Top Contact and Last Seven Days are in there as well. There is a lot to find in there, so fire away with any questions – find me in the Premium Slack Chat (@jaywalker72). I hope you find all the power today – good luck! – JW