JAYWALKER’S POWER STATION for 7/28/17

The Power Report is back for a WEEKEND! 15-game super slate, so let’s get to the top stacks as quickly as possible!

First a recap of the metrics we are looking at here:

Can’t stress enough to go through the tables and get used to what you are seeing there in addition to the specific write-ups I do in this report – folks are getting an edge with the data, for sure.

We released a video with me explaining the charts, how to use them, use cases, etc. at the link below:

Click here for the video which will open in a new tab

Expected Power, which is a Baseball HQ/Baseball Info Solutions metric that looks at hard hit percentages, line drive and fly ball rates, and shows what that batters’ rating is on a 100 is average scale.

Actual Power, which is the metric that displays the production that players have actually produced.

GAP: The difference between the two. Positive gaps mean they have underproduced to their metrics, whereas negative indicates regression could soon be coming. It is to show how “real” their production has been and if they are poised for progression or regression.

The purpose of the exercise is to see who is legit, who has been lucky or relatively so, and who has been unlucky and perhaps due for bounce back. Or maybe it is a hitter that has been in a slump, but is showing signs of above average hard contact/power.

The red cells are simply to highlight that they are more volatile due to their low contact rate (Chris/Khris Davis, for examples).

I like to look at last 30 days’ samples to account for adjustments and latest trends. There is a table in the chart for top expected power hitters over the last 30 days with contact rates over 75% for that span, in case you wanted to see a list free from complete windmills like Joey Gallo, Chris/Khris Davis, Alex Avila and the like. Also, a Top Contact table that has all the highest % contact plays with at least the average 100 expected power.

Finally, I added one last table to the report and that is a quick look at the expected power over just the last seven days, with a high contact (75% contact) and 10 at-bat filter applied.

These help us identify who might be relatively off the radar and can be exploited for our success in tournaments tonight!

TOP STACKS:

The good news is that there are plenty of stacking options on this slate, as the splits and opposition make for some good times out there, at least on paper. There are three I think are going to be very discussed and rostered tonight:

TEXAS RANGERS vs. Chris Tillman

103 degree heat in Arlington tonight, Chris Tillman, who is not so strong generally speaking and totally terrible away from Camden Yards, and the Rangers at home vs. RHP, where they have a 119 wRC+ and .242 ISO in split since June 1st (606 PA). Those are all the reasons that folks will be on this game, especially with the 30something run fest in their recent memory even with Yu Darvish pitching. Very chalky, but you need exposure here.

NEW YORK YANKEES vs. Austin Pruitt

Yankees have cooled a bit, but are still the #2 team in this split since June 1st, with a 128 wRC+ and .221 ISO over 613 PAs. Austin Pruitt has not shown any proclivity to getting major leaguers out consistently and this game could get ugly if the game gets into the backend of this Rays bullpen. The Yankees stack at home against RHP is always popular, so even though the BAL/TEX game will soak ownership, this should compete with top stack status, especially considering the concentration of bats folks like to roster here.

CLEVELAND INDIANS vs. Derek Holland

It is the Indians that have the second highest total on the slate, behind the Rangers, so Vegas patrollers will hone in on this matchup as well against Derek Holland, who is a well known bad pitcher. The Tribe has a solid 108 wRC+ in split here this season and Holland a 5.58 SIERA over his last 30 days.

Now, maybe a couple that are not as obvious or well-travelled tonight:

BOSTON RED SOX vs. Jason Vargas

Jason  Vargas is arguable as the worst pitcher on the slate, based on last 30 days performances. His 5.66 SIERA, 6.6% SWGSTR rate, 46.3% FB rate and 2.75 HR/9IP rate all give Derek Holland a run for the money. But wait, are not the RedSox terrible this season? In split, which is H/LHP, they are 3rd in wRC+ with a 111 total. They lack the big power bopper, which accentuates why a stack is preferable here.

LOS ANGELES DODGERS vs. Matt Moore

Matt Moore is better than his rag-doll status earlier in the season, but that does not mean he is a good pitcher, just merely now better than the Holland/Vargas types. The Dodgers have been vicious towards LHP at home this season, first overall with a 119 wRC+ and .230 ISO.

You could make the case that the CUBS and ASTROS are also top stacks tonight, underlining that there is no reason to run to the chalk tonight in GPPs.

And that’s the list – ONE OFFS can be found in the tables, but with so many super stacks and plays here, it makes sense to perhaps target one of the seven teams I have listed above for that.

Here is the full table of top expected power hitters, top expected power hitters with high contact rates, and another table for leaders in GAP, a.k.a. Most Owed Power as well as GAP w/High Contact. Specialty charts on Top Contact and Last Seven Days are in there as well. There is a lot to find in there, so fire away with any questions – find me in the Premium Slack Chat (@jaywalker72). I hope you find all the power today – good luck! – JW

 

Here is the full table of top expected power hitters, top expected power hitters with high contact rates, and another table for leaders in GAP, a.k.a. Most Owed Power as well as GAP w/High Contact. Specialty charts on Top Contact and Last Seven Days are in there as well. There is a lot to find in there, so fire away with any questions – find me in the Premium Slack Chat (@jaywalker72). I hope you find all the power today – good luck! – JW

 

POWER REPORT TABLE 072817