JAYWALKER’S POWER STATION for 7/27/17
The Power Report is back for a cute Thursday slate, with three games at noon and five on the main slate. Let’s get to it!
First a recap of the metrics we are looking at here:
Can’t stress enough to go through the tables and get used to what you are seeing there in addition to the specific write-ups I do in this report – folks are getting an edge with the data, for sure.
We released a video with me explaining the charts, how to use them, use cases, etc. at the link below:
Expected Power, which is a Baseball HQ/Baseball Info Solutions metric that looks at hard hit percentages, line drive and fly ball rates, and shows what that batters’ rating is on a 100 is average scale.
Actual Power, which is the metric that displays the production that players have actually produced.
GAP: The difference between the two. Positive gaps mean they have underproduced to their metrics, whereas negative indicates regression could soon be coming. It is to show how “real” their production has been and if they are poised for progression or regression.
The purpose of the exercise is to see who is legit, who has been lucky or relatively so, and who has been unlucky and perhaps due for bounce back. Or maybe it is a hitter that has been in a slump, but is showing signs of above average hard contact/power.
The red cells are simply to highlight that they are more volatile due to their low contact rate (Chris/Khris Davis, for examples).
I like to look at last 30 days’ samples to account for adjustments and latest trends. There is a table in the chart for top expected power hitters over the last 30 days with contact rates over 75% for that span, in case you wanted to see a list free from complete windmills like Joey Gallo, Chris/Khris Davis, Alex Avila and the like. Also, a Top Contact table that has all the highest % contact plays with at least the average 100 expected power.
Finally, I added one last table to the report and that is a quick look at the expected power over just the last seven days, with a high contact (75% contact) and 10 at-bat filter applied.
These help us identify who might be relatively off the radar and can be exploited for our success in tournaments tonight!
MAIN SLATE GEMS:
CHICAGO CUBS at Mike Pelfrey
Pelfrey’s magic has worn off, considerably, registering a 5.94 SIERA and 0.00% K-BB%. The 15.3% BB rate is enough to warrant rostering against, but even though he is getting ground balls (55%) the fly ball he is giving up are leaving the yard and walks + dingers = pointzzzz.
Addison Russell, IF (131 EP, -8 GAP, 72% Contact)
Willson Contreras, C (124 EP, -59 GAP, 78% Contact)
Anthony Rizzo, 1B (112 EP, -22 GAP, 85% Contact)
Jason Heyward, OF (101 EP, +27 GAP, 86% Contact)
As I looked at the other matchups, you can make arguments for MIA, CIN, NYM and TAM stacks but digging into each of them, there is enough to say that none measure up to auto-stack status other than just doing it because it is a tourney ready start. Better off mixing the top one-offs from these matchups, like CIN RHH, NYM LHH, TAM RHH, etc.
Randal Grichuk, OF, STL (204 EP, +10 GAP, 69% Contact)
Paul DeJong, SS, STL (188 EP, -35 GAP, 68% Contact)
Jay Bruce, OF, NYM (184 EP, +66 GAP, 68% Contact) – SDP RHP Perdomo is better at home, but still vulnerable to LHH.
AJ Pollock, OF, ARI (181 EP, +26 GAP, 86% Contact)
Giancarlo Stanton, OF, MIA (162 EP, -92 GAP, 71% Contact) – Fade at your risk right now – Stephenson has been vulnerable to even RHH.
Matt Carpenter, 1B/2B, STL (153 EP, +83 GAP, 88% Contact) – Have a lot of respect for Godley, which is why I am listing the Cardinals out individually. If you are not rostering Godley on this slate, picking a couple of Redbirds looks good, value wise.
Gregor Blanco, OF, ARI (152 EP, +32 GAP, 89% Contact) – Just play this guy everyday, Arizona!
Adam Duvall, OF, CIN (147 EP, -23 GAP, 68% Contact)
Steven Souza, OF, TBR (135 EP, -28 GAP, 73% Contact)
Asdrubal Carbrea, 2B/SS, NYM (119 EP, +34 GAP, 87% Contact)
Derek Dietrich, 2B/3B, MIA (117 EP, +28 GAP, 71% Contact)
And that’s the list!
Tons and tons of other great one-offs in the tables – please check them out and if you have any specific asks, feel free to @ me in Slack and check the tables for all updated bats in preparation for today’s slate!
EARLY SLATE NUGGETS:
Justin Smoak, 1B, TOR (239 EP, +$8 GAP, 71% Contact) – Great against LHP, too, Smoak is the best 1B power bat out there right now.
Luis Valbuena, 1B, LAA (241 EP, +43 GAP, 74% Contact) – Great power bat in a hitter’s park vs. RHP Bauer.
Eric Thames, 1B, MIL (180 EP, +6 GAP, 57% Contact) – As Arizona showed, Max is dominant, but he can be had for the longball
Travis Shaw, 3B, MIL (174 EP, -44 GAP, 68% Contact) – I would stack MIL bats, unless a contrarian stack is in the cards for you in GPP, but they have plenty to choose from in one-offs.
Ryan Braun, OF, MIL (171 EP, +11 GAP, 83% Contact) – And another…
Lewis Brinson, OF, MIL (348 EP, -205 GAP, 67% Contact) – Just kidding – three at-bats here, but cheap on DK.
Khris Davis, OF, OAK (172 EP, -68 GAP, 61% Contact) – Stroman is an extreme GB pitcher, with only 14% FB rate, and Davis is an extreme fly ball hitter, with 42% over last 30 days.
Daniel Murphy, 2B, WAS (163 EP, +9 GAP, 88% Contact) – WAS will be chalky today, with a bullpen game coming for the Brewers.
Bruce Maxwell, C, OAK (149 EP, +58 GAP, 71% Contact) – Super cheap catching option if you are not rostering Stroman today. 2.4K on DK.
Carlos Santana, 1B, CLE (141 EP, -22 GAP, 77% Contact) – JC Ramirez does worse against LHH and Santana has curbed in GB tendencies just enough lately to deliver power.
Here is the full table of top expected power hitters, top expected power hitters with high contact rates, and another table for leaders in GAP, a.k.a. Most Owed Power as well as GAP w/High Contact. Specialty charts on Top Contact and Last Seven Days are in there as well. There is a lot to find in there, so fire away with any questions – find me in the Premium Slack Chat (@jaywalker72). I hope you find all the power today – good luck! – JW