JAYWALKER’S POWER STATION for 7/25/17
The Power Report is back for this almost all-in 14-game Tuesday slate! After Kevin Gausman day, we are looking for more bats to lock in, if their managers do not keep them out of the lineup in a crush spot. Thanks, Dave Roberts.
First a recap of the metrics we are looking at here:
Can’t stress enough to go through the tables and get used to what you are seeing there in addition to the specific write-ups I do in this report – folks are getting an edge with the data, for sure.
We released a video with me explaining the charts, how to use them, use cases, etc. at the link below:
Expected Power, which is a Baseball HQ/Baseball Info Solutions metric that looks at hard hit percentages, line drive and fly ball rates, and shows what that batters’ rating is on a 100 is average scale.
Actual Power, which is the metric that displays the production that players have actually produced.
GAP: The difference between the two. Positive gaps mean they have underproduced to their metrics, whereas negative indicates regression could soon be coming. It is to show how “real” their production has been and if they are poised for progression or regression.
The purpose of the exercise is to see who is legit, who has been lucky or relatively so, and who has been unlucky and perhaps due for bounce back. Or maybe it is a hitter that has been in a slump, but is showing signs of above average hard contact/power.
The red cells are simply to highlight that they are more volatile due to their low contact rate (Chris/Khris Davis, for examples).
I like to look at last 30 days’ samples to account for adjustments and latest trends. There is a table in the chart for top expected power hitters over the last 30 days with contact rates over 75% for that span, in case you wanted to see a list free from complete windmills like Joey Gallo, Chris/Khris Davis, Alex Avila and the like. Also, a Top Contact table that has all the highest % contact plays with at least the average 100 expected power.
Finally, I added one last table to the report and that is a quick look at the expected power over just the last seven days, with a high contact (75% contact) and 10 at-bat filter applied.
These help us identify who might be relatively off the radar and can be exploited for our success in tournaments tonight!
WASHINGTON NATIONALS vs. Zach Davies
Davies has consistently been one of the worst regular turn SPs this season, with a 4.83 SIERA over his last 30 days and low K rate of 14%. WAS, meanwhile, is 10th against RHP at home since June 1 (622 PA) with a 114 wRC+ and 18.2 K rate. It is going to be hot in DC tonight and as long as Wilmer Difo is batting eighth, they should score often tonight.
Daniel Murphy, 2B (152 EP, +17 GAP, 89% Contact)
Anthony Rendon, 3B (119 EP, -46 GAP, 86% Contact)
Ryan Zimmerman, 1B (110 EP, +55 GAP, 71% Contact)
Bryce Harper, OF (102 EP, -84 GAP, 81% Contact) – Have to pause here for Harper, who is almost always not on this list. His FB rate is up over the last seven days (43%), his contact rate is also up (81% over L30, 82% over last seven) and hard contact rating is 189 (100 is average, which is also his season total) over L7.
HOUSTON ASTROS at Nick Pivetta
Pivetta has great stuff, but also has trouble harnessing it, with an 11.4% walk rate over his last 30 days. Additionally, he has a 51.3 FB rate over that span and a 4.89 SIERA. Lastly, a 3 HR per 9 IP rate. He is at home, which is the #2 park for HRs this season. All of that might not be terrible if facing a weak offense that K’d a lot but, oh no, it is the Astros, who are top in wRC+ against RHP away over L30 (698 PA) with a 155 rating. Their ISO is .277 and the strike out only 16.9% of the time.
Evan Gattis, C (176 EP, -57 GAP, 79% Contact)
Josh Reddick, OF (155 EP, +43 GAP, 81% Contact)
Alex Bregman, 3B (122 EP, -2 GAP, 84% Contact)
Yulieski Gurriel, 1B (118 EP, -38 GAP, 91% Contact)
ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS vs. Mike Foltynewicz
Folty, at home or away still struggles with LHH bats and Chase Field is a bad place to face your worst splits, as it ranks third in HRs and second in runs scored this season.
AJ Pollock, OF (196 EP, +14 GAP, 85% Contact)
Chris Herrmann, C/OF (161 EP, +56 GAP, 68% Contact)
Jacob Lamb, 3B (160 EP, -50 GAP, 67% Contact)
Chris Owings, SS/OF (142 EP, +28 GAP, 72% Contact)
Daniel Descalso, 2B/OF (125 EP, +32 GAP, 74% Contact)
Paul Goldschmidt, 1B (119 EP, +11 GAP, 63% Contact)
David Peralta has a 161 EP and 86% Contact rate over his last seven games and would be in play if continues to bat atop the lineup card.
MILWAUKEE BREWERS at Edwin Jackson
Jackson has returned to the league and has to be considered a target for the Brewers in hot DC.
Ryan Braun, OF (186 EP, -2 GAP, 80% Contact
Travis Shaw, 3B (181 EP, -34 GAP, 66% Contact)
Eric Thames, 1B (166 EP, +30 GAP, 58% Contact)
Manny Pina, C (138 EP, +51 GAP, 70% Contact)
ST LOUIS CARDINALS vs. Jon Gray
I have a lot of respect for Gray’s stuff, but his numbers on the road, surprisingly, is enough to warrant a look at the Redbirds tonight. Also, the temperatures in STL should be hot, helping matters and, upon review of the tables, there are so many Cardinals on there that it warranted an inclusion here, over the Rays, as a sneaky stack tonight. Gray is extra susceptible to LHH, so you know who will be in the mix here.
Randal Grichuk, OF (224 EP, -15 GAP, 66% Contact) – Note: He has home runs in four consecutive games, so as you can see, there is no GAP. FB rate of 53% and his contact is up 7% over the last seven days.
Matt Carpenter, 1B/2B (183 EP, +100 GAP, 88% Contact) – And there he is!
Paul DeJong, SS (164 EP, =28 GAP, 69% Contact)
Yadier Molina, C (154 EP, +94 GAP, 84% Contact)
Thomas Pham, OF (139 EP, -1 GAP, 72% Contact)
Dexter Fowler, OF (131 EP, +91 GAP, 81% Contact)
Jedd Gyorko, 3B (114 EP, +3 GAP, 77% Contact)
Justin Turner, 3B, LAD (202 EP, +65 GAP, 91% Contact)
Chase Utley, 1B/2B, LAD (187 EP, +53 GAP, 80% Contact) – Both he and Turner are nice, post-hype plays, especially Utley, who got cut out of a shot at Bartolo Colon last night.
Charlie Blackmon, OF, COL (187 EP, +43 GAP, 83% Contact) – Lance Lynn will struggle against the LHH, and Chuck Nasty is the best of the Rockies by a long shot.
Giancarlo Stanton, OF, MIA (169 EP, -80 GAP, 73% Contact) – All season we have waited for him to join the list – ride the streak and do not worry about the negative GAP in a matchup in 100 degree heat against a LHP.
Mike Moustakas, 3B, KCR (144 EP, -18 GAP, 86% Contact) – DET RHP Fulmer has live stuff, but it is not translating to missed bats.
Justin Smoak, 1B, TOR (224 EP, +57 GAP, 73% Contact) – Will not be a popular play due to opposing SP (Sonny Gray), price and TOR track record vs. RHP this season at home.
Nelson Cruz, OF, SEA (178 EP, +56 GAP, 76% Contact) – Cruz let down last night against Boston but gets another LHP in Drew Pomeranz tonight.
Zach Cozart, SS, CIN (129 EP, -5 GAP, 91% Contact)
Luis Valbuena, 1B, LAA (199 EP, +60 GAP, 72% Contact) – Big power against a tough RHP in Clevinger, but in a hitter’s park.
Steven Souza, OF, TBR (135 EP, -18 GAP, 69% Contact) – Wade Miley and his .408 wOBA against RHH on the road brings Souza, who should lead off, into play.
And that’s the list!
Tons and tons of other great one-offs in the tables – please check them out and if you have any specific asks, feel free to @ me in Slack and check the tables for all updated bats in preparation for today’s slate!
Here is the full table of top expected power hitters, top expected power hitters with high contact rates, and another table for leaders in GAP, a.k.a. Most Owed Power as well as GAP w/High Contact. Speciality charts on Top Contact and Last Seven Days are in there as well. There is a lot to find in there, so fire away with any questions – find me in the Premium Slack Chat (@jaywalker72). I hope you find all the power today – good luck! – JW