JAYWALKER’S POWER STATION for 7/24/17
The Power Report is back for this kick off the new week Monday 12-game slate. Some interesting new names on the tables today and the Cardinals and Matt Carpenter are back on a main slate! Woohoo! Let’s find out who I am targeting with Carp tonight 😊!
First a recap of the metrics we are looking at here:
Can’t stress enough to go through the tables and get used to what you are seeing there in addition to the specific write-ups I do in this report – folks are getting an edge with the data, for sure.
We released a video with me explaining the charts, how to use them, use cases, etc. at the link below:
Expected Power, which is a Baseball HQ/Baseball Info Solutions metric that looks at hard hit percentages, line drive and fly ball rates, and shows what that batters’ rating is on a 100 is average scale.
Actual Power, which is the metric that displays the production that players have actually produced.
GAP: The difference between the two. Positive gaps mean they have underproduced to their metrics, whereas negative indicates regression could soon be coming. It is to show how “real” their production has been and if they are poised for progression or regression.
The purpose of the exercise is to see who is legit, who has been lucky or relatively so, and who has been unlucky and perhaps due for bounce back. Or maybe it is a hitter that has been in a slump, but is showing signs of above average hard contact/power.
The red cells are simply to highlight that they are more volatile due to their low contact rate (Chris/Khris Davis, for examples).
I like to look at last 30 days’ samples to account for adjustments and latest trends. There is a table in the chart for top expected power hitters over the last 30 days with contact rates over 75% for that span, in case you wanted to see a list free from complete windmills like Joey Gallo, Chris/Khris Davis, Alex Avila and the like. Also, a Top Contact table that has all the highest % contact plays with at least the average 100 expected power.
Finally, I added one last table to the report and that is a quick look at the expected power over just the last seven days, with a high contact (75% contact) and 10 at-bat filter applied.
These help us identify who might be relatively off the radar and can be exploited for our success in tournaments tonight!
LOS ANGELES DODGERS vs. Bartolo Colon
The Dodgers are fifth best team in wRC+ since June 1st (602 PA) and have a number of guys that dot our tables. Bartolo Colon is hanging on, and while he still gets an abundance of ground balls, this is a terrible matchup for him, given the power LHH on the Dodgers and his .379 wOBA, 41% FB rate and high contact rate in split. He is said to be considering retirement after this start – I think this will be the last time to target Colon, ever.
Chase Utley, 1B/2B (192 EP, +54 GAP, 80% Contact)
Corey Seager, SS (186 EP, +24 GAP, 66% Contact)
Justin Turner, 3B (184 EP, +40 GAP, 91% Contact)
Cody Bellinger, 1B/OF (137 EP, +1 GAP, 74% Contact)
Joc Pederson, OF (131 EP, -23 GAP, 77% Contact)
Yasmani Grandal, C (99 EO, -66 GAP, 79% Contact)
Chris Taylor, IF (131 EP, -23 GAP, 74% Contact)
TEXAS RANGERS vs. Adam Conley
Gonna be a hot day in Dallas(ish) area tonight, and Adam Conley faces a Rangers team that, over 221 PAs since May 1st in split, have a .197 ISO and 113 wRC+ here. Conley has a high walk rate and could get into trouble here in this spot.
Mike Napoli, 1B (218 EP, +30 GAP, 62% Contact)
Rougned Odor, 2B (152 EP, +27 GAP, 70% Contact)
Shin-Soo Choo, OF (149 EP, +72 GAP, 75% Contact)
Adrian Beltre, 3B (120 EP, -4 GAP, 87% Contact)
MIAMI MARLINS at Martin Perez
It is almost an overused narrative that stacking against Marty Perez can be hazardous to your bankroll, but at home, against RHH, Perez is all the target you could ever want. Perez, in that split this season (235 PA) has a .381 wOBA, 1.9% K-BB% (11.1% walk rate), 5.28 xFIP, a relatively low 41% GB rate and only 12% soft contact.
Giancarlo Stanton, OF (164 EP, -82 GAP, 72% Contact)
Justin Bour, 1B (130 EP, +9 GAP, 74% Contact)
J.T. Realmuto, C (86 EP, -8 GAP, 85% Contact) Muto is 93% Contact over last seven days and 166 EP.
Marcell Ozuna, OF (78 EP, -24 GAP, 72% Contact) Ozuna has improved contact rate to 81% and has a HH rating of 134 (100 is average) over the same.
ARIZONA DIAMONBACKS vs. R.A. Dickey
Dickey has been pitching effectively, but Chase is a different animal. The Cubs hit Dickey pretty hard in his last start and he has not been missing a ton of bats, generally, and has a 5.65 xFIP and only 2.9% K-BB differential away from SunTrust.
AJ Pollock, OF (174 EP, +27 GAP, 84% Contact)
Jacob Lamb, 3B (154 EP, -49 GAP, 68% Contact) – Has improved his FB rate to 42%
Chris Owings, SS (131 EP, +17 GAP, 73% Contact)
Daniel Descalso, 2B/OF (120 EP, +13 GAP, 74% Contact)
Jeff Mathis, C (115 EP, +5 GAP, 72% Contact)
Paul Goldschmidt, 1B (106 EP, +9 GAP, 64% Contact)
Pat Valaika, SS, COL (199 EP, +71 GAP, 78% Contact) – Val is finally qualified with ABs but has been consistently included in here when I feature COL stacks.
Charlie Blackmon, OF, COL (178 EP, +34 GAP, 83% Contact) – As Pete’s last Hitler video says, do not let anyone or anything take you off of Chuck Nasty.
Matt Carpenter, IF, STL (175 EP, +95 GAP, 88% Contact) – COL SP Senzatela is not bad at all away from DEN, but Carp does fit the profile of the hitter that does well against the Rockies righty.
Scooter Gennett, IF, CIN (165 EP, -3 GAP, 78% Contact) –Cannot Stop. Will not stop. The power continues to be legit.
Wilmer Flores, IF, NYM (144 EP, -8 GAP, 88% Contact) – Mets sneaky good on the road vs. LHP this season and Flores is a big reason why.
Victor Martinez, C/1B, DET (140 EP, +70 GAP, 86% Contact) – Another bad manager shifting someone down in their lineup because their results have not yet matched their metrics (a la Cutch in PIT). So what will happen is that DET will realize less of the GAP closure as Martinez gets fewer ABs out of the six hole and they will have managed to get the worst of Martinez’s results from the middle of the lineup and less of the goodness when Martinez turns. Well done, Professional Managers.
Miguel Cabrera, 1B, DET (130 EP, +68 GAP, 79% Contact) – GAAAAAAAAAAAAP
Justin Smoak, 1B, TOR (216 EP, +46 GAP, 73% Contact) – His so-good season rolls on and now at home vs. a very hittable (Chris Smith-OAK) RHP.
Nelson Cruz, OF, SEA (182 EP, +62 GAP, 77% Contact) – vs. LHP at home (EROD), Cruz has the expected power back up to his annual levels here with high contact.
Dexter Fowler, OF, STL (120 EP, +78 GAP, 82% Contact) – Has done very well with hard contact all season, output ridiculously low and will be batting third in hot STL tonight.
Ian Kinsler, 2B, DET (118 EP, +53 GAP, 89% Contact) – You know, maybe I shoulda made DET a TOP STACK.
Josh Reddick, OF, HOU (156 EP, +36 GAP, 81% Contact) – Heavy rain in forecast, but nice matchup against a recovering Velasquez in hitter friendly Philly.
Ryon Healy, 1B/3B, OAK (128 EP, +73 GAP, 74% Contact) – Has turned it back around and is under 3K on DK in a matchup against TOR SP Liriano. L7: 330 EP, +330 GAP.
And that’s the list!
Tons and tons of other great one-offs in the tables – please check them out and if you have any specific asks, feel free to @ me in Slack and check the tables for all updated bats in preparation for today’s slate!
Here is the full table of top expected power hitters, top expected power hitters with high contact rates, and another table for leaders in GAP, a.k.a. Most Owed Power as well as GAP w/High Contact. Speciality charts on Top Contact and Last Seven Days are in there as well. There is a lot to find in there, so fire away with any questions – find me in the Premium Slack Chat (@jaywalker72). I hope you find all the power today – good luck! – JW