JAYWALKER’S POWER STATION for 7/22/17
The Power Report is back for this unusually beefy 13-game main slate. Many gasbag (and gas can) pitchers and extremely owed power hitters to identify so let’s get to it!
First a recap of the metrics we are looking at here:
Can’t stress enough to go through the tables and get used to what you are seeing there in addition to the specific write-ups I do in this report – folks are getting an edge with the data, for sure.
We just released a video with me explaining the charts, how to use them, use cases, etc. at the link below:
Expected Power, which is a Baseball HQ/Baseball Info Solutions metric that looks at hard hit percentages, line drive and fly ball rates, and shows what that batters’ rating is on a 100 is average scale.
Actual Power, which is the metric that displays the production that players have actually produced.
GAP: The difference between the two. Positive gaps mean they have underproduced to their metrics, whereas negative indicates regression could soon be coming. It is to show how “real” their production has been and if they are poised for progression or regression.
The purpose of the exercise is to see who is legit, who has been lucky or relatively so, and who has been unlucky and perhaps due for bounce back. Or maybe it is a hitter that has been in a slump, but is showing signs of above average hard contact/power.
The red cells are simply to highlight that they are more volatile due to their low contact rate (Chris/Khris Davis, for examples).
I like to look at last 30 days’ samples to account for adjustments and latest trends. There is a table in the chart for top expected power hitters over the last 30 days with contact rates over 75% for that span, in case you wanted to see a list free from complete windmills like Joey Gallo, Chris/Khris Davis, Alex Avila and the like. Also, I have added a Top Contact table that has all the highest % contact plays with at least the average 100 expected power.
Finally, I added one last table to the report and that is a quick look at the expected power over just the last seven days, with a high contact (75% contact) and 10 at-bat filter applied.
These help us identify who might be relatively off the radar and can be exploited for our success in tournaments tonight!
KANSAS CITY ROYALS vs. Mike Pelfrey
It is hard to imagine writing the Royals up for the third straight slate, but here we are. The temperature has been hitter happy and the Royals, who are second in wRC+ over the last 30 days (367 PA) in this split, have been good with the bats. Now add Mike Pelfrey, who had been better early on in the season, but now has slipped back into being very hittable, and the Royals are on the board again.
Brandon Moss, OF (163 EP, +19 GAP, 63% Contact)
Sal Perez, C (138 EP, +3 GAP, 77% Contact)
Mike Moustakas, 3B (123 EP, -4 GAP, 85% Contact)
Whit Merrifield, 2B (100 EP, -36 GAP, 83% Contact)
CHICAGO WHITE SOX vs. Jason Vargas
Jason Vargas started the season very hot but now he is very not. Over his last 30 days, Vargas has the following numbers: 5.48 SIERA, 14.6% K rate, 9.4% walk rate, 2.91 HR/ 9 IP. He now has the same warm temps that make his teammates good targets working against him and faces the White Sox, who are #4 in wRC+ (129) over the last 30 days in split (298 PA).
Matt Davidson, 1B/3B (146 EP, +45 GAP, 55% Contact)
Yoan Moncada, 2B/3B (141 EP, +35 GAP, 100% Contact) – Six at-bats, so calm down, but if batting sixth again, perfectly playable, especially where he qualifies at 2B.
Adam Engel, OF (107 EP, +6 GAP, 67% Contact)
Avisail Garcia, OF (106 EP, +50 GAP, 77% Contact)
Jose Abreu, 1B (106 EP, -36 GAP, 78% Contact)
HOUSTON ASTROS at Chris Tillman
The Astros kill in every split and while I do not know what magic Chris Tillman pulled to be good in his last start, getting through this Astros lineup with his 5.20 SIERA and 88% Contact rate in the zone is way more unlikely.
Evan Gattis, C (171 EP, -63 GAP, 81% Contact)
Colin Moran, 3B (161 EP, -275 GAP, 100% Contact) – Four whole at-bats, but included to show potential and how hilariously large that noisy GAP is.
Josh Reddick, OF (161 EP, +2 GAP, 80% Contact)
George Springer, OF (151 EP, -12 GAP, 84% Contact)
Yulieski Gurriel, IF (120 EP, -23 GAP, 92% Contact)
Carlos Beltran, OF (117 EP, +30 GAP, 76% Contact)
Alex Bregman, 3B (117 EP, +17 GAP, 84% Contact)
MIAMI MARLINS at Robert Stephenson
The Marlins let down yesterday but have to be considered again as the humidity is still in the warm air, but not as much precipitation. Also, Robert Stephenson, who has super high walk, fly ball and home run rates.
Giancarlo Stanton, OF (167 EP, -83 GAP, 72% Contact)
Justin Bour, 1B (119 EP, -2 GAP, 74% Contact)
Derek Dietrich, IF (110 EP, +19 GAP, 73% Contact)
Marcell Ozuna, OF (99 EP, -16 GAP, 73% Contact)
AJ Pollock, OF, ARI (170 EP, +28 GAP, 88% Contact) – Tanner Roark on the hill for WAS, Pollock has come back off the DL smoking hot.
Mitch Moreland, 1B, BOS (167 EP, +105 GAP, 75% Contact)
Nelson Cruz, OF, SEA (166 EP, +34 GAP, 76% Contact)
Chase Utley, 1B/2B, LAD (165 EP, +49 GAP, 76% Contact) – Julio Teheran and his weakness against LHH should provide needed value here with Utley.
Seth Smith, OF, BAL (164 EP, +50 GAP, 77% Contact)
Charlie Blackmon, OF, COL (161 EP, +23 GAP, 82% Contact) – Chad Kuhl is on and Coors is warm today.
Victor Martinez, C/1B, DET (154 EP, +79 GAP, 88% Contact) – Gappy goodness and a double dong game from VMART, but there is still more GAP to close.
Yasmani Grandal, C, LAD (151 EP, -67 GAP, 77% Contact)
Miguel Cabrera, 1B, DET (142 EP, +68 GAP, 81% Contact)
Zack Cozart, SS, CIN (128 EP, +13 GAP, 94% Contact) – hugely high contact rate and a softer SP in O’Grady for the Marlins.
Josh Harrison, IF, PIT (133 EP, +46 GAP, 81% Contact)- Coors play, along with Josh Bell, Marquez is not a pushover this season, but Harrison’s high contact makes him necessary in any Bucs stack.
And that’s the list!
Tons and tons of other great one-offs in the tables – please check them out today! If you have any specific asks, feel free to @ me in Slack and check the tables for all updated bats in preparation for today’s slate!
Here is the full table of top expected power hitters, top expected power hitters with high contact rates, and another table for leaders in GAP, a.k.a. Most Owed Power as well as GAP w/High Contact. The new charts on Top Contact and Last Seven Days are in there as well. There is a lot to find in there, so fire away with any questions – find me in the Premium Slack Chat (@jaywalker72). I hope you find all the power today – good luck! – JW