JAYWALKER’S POWER STATION for 7/21/17
The Power Report is back for the Friday 14-game mega slate (sorry, STL/CHC – drink your Old Style and Busch and leave the slate to us!). Let’s get to it!.
First a recap of the metrics we are looking at here:
Can’t stress enough to go through the tables and get used to what you are seeing there in addition to the specific write-ups I do in this report – folks are getting an edge with the data, for sure.
We just released a video with me explaining the charts, how to use them, use cases, etc. at the link below:
Expected Power, which is a Baseball HQ/Baseball Info Solutions metric that looks at hard hit percentages, line drive and fly ball rates, and shows what that batters’ rating is on a 100 is average scale.
Actual Power, which is the metric that displays the production that players have actually produced.
GAP: The difference between the two. Positive gaps mean they have underproduced to their metrics, whereas negative indicates regression could soon be coming. It is to show how “real” their production has been and if they are poised for progression or regression.
The purpose of the exercise is to see who is legit, who has been lucky or relatively so, and who has been unlucky and perhaps due for bounce back. Or maybe it is a hitter that has been in a slump, but is showing signs of above average hard contact/power.
The red cells are simply to highlight that they are more volatile due to their low contact rate (Chris/Khris Davis, for examples).
I like to look at last 30 days’ samples to account for adjustments and latest trends. There is a table in the chart for top expected power hitters over the last 30 days with contact rates over 75% for that span, in case you wanted to see a list free from complete windmills like Joey Gallo, Chris/Khris Davis, Alex Avila and the like. Also, I have added a Top Contact table that has all the highest % contact plays with at least the average 100 expected power.
Finally, I added one last table to the report and that is a quick look at the expected power over just the last seven days, with a high contact (75% contact) and 10 at-bat filter applied.
These help us identify who might be relatively off the radar and can be exploited for our success in tournaments tonight!
NOTE: The stats were not able to be updated before the time of this writing, so the tables and stats are still from yesterday.
HOUSTON ASTROS at Ubaldo Jimenez
The Astros seemingly have calmed down but over the last 30 days on the road vs. RHP (only 275 PAs), they are still the tops in split at 166 wRC+ and .303 ISO. Hefty. Ubaldo Jimenez has not pitched well over his last 30 days, with a 5.18 SIERA, 11% Walk rate (nice for stacking), 2.25 HR/9 IP and an 81% contact rate, which moves up to 92.3% when in the strike zone. Ouch.
Josh Reddick, OF (179 EP, +4 GAP, 79% Contact)
George Springer, OF (171 EP, -4 GAP, 85% Contact)
Carlos Beltran, OF (121 EP, +14 GAP, 77% Contact)
Marwin Gonzalez, IF (119 EP, -37 GAP, 72% Contact)
Yulieski Gurriel, IF (117 EP, -16 GAP, 90% Contact)
NEW YORK METS vs. Paul Blackburn
The Mets can go very wrong from time to time, but we do know that they are strong at home vs. RHP, where they have a 117 wRC+ and .214 ISO in split. Blackburn does not have the missed bats stuff, so he will be prone and subject to the Mets abilities to hit said RHP.
Curtis Granderson, OF (201 EP, -28 GAP, 72% Contact)
Jay Bruce, OF (179 EP, +57 GAP, 70% Contact)
Lucas Duda, 1B (175 EP, -46 GAP, 71% Contact)
Yoenis Cespedes, OF (132 EP, +81 GAP, 83% Contact)
Asdrubal Cabrera, IF (104 EP, +30 GAP, 89% Contact)
Jose Reyes, IF (109 EP, -13 GAP, 88% Contact)
Michael Conforto, OF (111 EP, -22 GAP, 72% Contact)
KANSAS CITY ROYALS vs. James Shields
IF YOU READ TPR yesterday, you already know that the Royals have been excellent in this split over the last 30 days, third overall in the league with a 132 wRC+ and a .208 ISO. Hope you stacked them! James Shields is terrible, we know this, that stats sing that song every time you look at them. Shields has a 1.0 Net K-BB%, gives up 3.15 HR/9 IP, has a 49% fly ball rate and an abysmal 6.13 SIERA over his last 30 days.
Brandon Moss, OF (169 EP, +20 GAP, 64% Contact)
Sal Perez, C (134 EP, +3 GAP, 74% Contact)
Mike Moustakas, 3B (125 EP, -4 GAP, 85% Contact)
Whit Merrifield, 2B (102 EP, -27 GAP, 84% Contact)
Alex Gordon, OF (101 EP, +9 GAP, 73% Contact)
MIAMI MARLINS at Homer Bailey
The Marlins are tough against RHP on the road, ranking fourth over 367 PAs in split with a 118 wRC+ and .199 ISO. Homer Bailey is at the Great American Ball Park and has a 5.12 SIERA with 10% walk rate over his last 30 days.
Giancarlo Stanton, OF (163 EP, -78 GAP, 72% Contact)
Derek Dietrich, IF (124 EP, +23 GAP, 73% Contact)
Justin Bour, 1B (115 EP, +3 GAP, 74% Contact)
Marcell Ozuna, OF (106 EP, -12 GAP, 75% Contact)
Mike Napoli, 1B, TEX (249 EP, +42 GAP, 62% Contact) – Still cooking, gets a very hittable Alex Cobb in Tampa.
Justin Smoak, 1B, TOR (202 EP, +41 GAP, 73% Contact) – CLE is a top 10 hitter’s park, especially for HRs and CLE RHP Trevor Bauer has given up 1.6 HR/9 IP and a .343 wOBA to LHH this season.
Justin Turner, 3B, LAD (178 EP, +28 GAP, 91% Contact) – Jaime Garcia is not the pushover he might appear to be, but LAD has a 139 wRC+ and .269 ISO vs. LHP/home over last 384 PAs.
Nelson Cruz, OF, SEA (164 EP, +27 GAP, 79% Contact) – Always a popular one-off against LHP at home, Cruz faces a suddenly very hittable CC Sabathia.
Todd Frazier, 3B, NYY (166 EP, -2 GAP, 69% Contact) –Andrew Moore is a very hittable SP, with the fourth highest contact rate and second highest fly ball rate on the slate.
Aaron Judge, OF, NYY (162 EP, +3 GAP, 61% Contact) – There is NO way Aaron Judge is owed power, yet, there it is.
Charlie Blackmon, OF, COL (161 EP, +23 GAP, 81% Contact) – Trevor Williams is actually a sneaky GPP play in Coors tonight, but Blackmon will be his toughest out and is a terrific cash game play.
Adam Duvall, OF, CIN (161 EP, -30 GAP, 69% Contact) – MIA SP Urena gives up the power to RHH and Duvall is back to his power hitting ways.
Shin-Soo Choo, OF, TEX (148 EP, +66 GAP, 76% Contact) – Continues to be a great play vs. RHP at the top of the Rangers lineup
Josh Harrison, IF, PIT (135 EP, +56 GAP, 81% Contact) – Jeff Hoffman has been much worse than his early season start and Harrison should be batting second behind Marte, in good position to score FP in Coors tonight.
Francisco Lindor, SS, CLE (110 EP, +31 GAP, 86% Contact) – Lindor, batting second at home, against a struggling Marco Estrada.
Manny Machado, 3B, BAL (119 EP, +19 GAP, 84% Contact) – Love the reverse split goodness against HOU RHP Mike Fiers.
Logan Morrison, 1B, TAM (143 EP, +9 GAP, 81% Contact) – Nice one-off power against TEX ace Yu Darvish
And that’s the list!
Tons and tons of other great one-offs in the tables – please check them out today! If you have any specific asks, feel free to @ me in Slack and check the tables for all updated bats in preparation for today’s slate!
Here is the full table of top expected power hitters, top expected power hitters with high contact rates, and another table for leaders in GAP, a.k.a. Most Owed Power as well as GAP w/High Contact. The new charts on Top Contact and Last Seven Days are in there as well. There is a lot to find in there, so fire away with any questions – find me in the Premium Slack Chat (@jaywalker72). I hope you find all the power today – good luck! – JW