JAYWALKER’S POWER STATION for 7/20/17
The Power Report is back for the Thursday split slate, with four games early and five games on the main slate. I will list the early games first in the Top Stacks and One-Offs and then the main slate plays after them. Now let’s get to it!
First a recap of the metrics we are looking at here:
Can’t stress enough to go through the tables and get used to what you are seeing there in addition to the specific write-ups I do in this report – folks are getting an edge with the data, for sure.
We just released a video with me explaining the charts, how to use them, use cases, etc. at the link below:
Expected Power, which is a Baseball HQ/Baseball Info Solutions metric that looks at hard hit percentages, line drive and fly ball rates, and shows what that batters’ rating is on a 100 is average scale.
Actual Power, which is the metric that displays the production that players have actually produced.
GAP: The difference between the two. Positive gaps mean they have under produced to their metrics, whereas negative indicates regression could soon be coming. It is to show how “real” their production has been and if they are poised for progression or regression.
The purpose of the exercise is to see who is legit, who has been lucky or relatively so, and who has been unlucky and perhaps due for bounce back. Or maybe it is a hitter that has been in a slump, but is showing signs of above average hard contact/power.
The red cells are simply to highlight that they are more volatile due to their low contact rate (Chris/Khris Davis, for examples).
I like to look at last 30 days’ samples to account for adjustments and latest trends. There is a table in the chart for top expected power hitters over the last 30 days with contact rates over 75% for that span, in case you wanted to see a list free from complete windmills like Joey Gallo, Chris/Khris Davis, Alex Avila and the like. Also, I have added a Top Contact table that has all the highest % contact plays with at least the average 100 expected power.
Finally, I added one last table to the report and that is a quick look at the expected power over just the last seven days, with a high contact (75% contact) and 10 at-bat filter applied.
These help us identify who might be relatively off the radar and can be exploited for our success in tournaments tonight!
NEW YORK METS vs. Lance Lynn
Lance Lynn has been a tough nugget to crack recently, especially if you have stacked against him. Lynn has an alright, not exciting 4.52 SIERA and has around 1.1 HR/9 IP and has even managed a 5.2% walk rate over his last 30 days. Not worth rostering the man himself, but not a fantastic target either. He still, however, has the struggles against LHH and he gets a bunch of legit power bats from that side by facing the Mets, who have been troublesome all season at home against RHP but have been especially so of late, third in split with a 125 wRC+ over the last 30 days. With Lynn’s recent heroics (relatively) and Great American Ballpark and Fenway getting a lot of the ownership for bats, the Mets may be a nice place, not sneaky because, four-game slate, but a nice play to roll a stack for bats today.
Curtis Granderson, OF (224 EP, -28 GAP, 70% Contact) – He has not been playing, it has been Conforto, but The Grandy Man would be excellent here.
Jay Bruce, OF (187 EP, +49 GAP, 69% Contact) – There is a classic Jay Bruce power run coming soon.
Lucas Duda, 1B (168 EP, -39 GAP, 71% Contact)
Rene Rivera, C (152 EP, -7 GAP, 81% Contact) – High contact, high power punt catcher, if he is in there today.
Jose Reyes, IF (127 EP, -27 GAP, 87% Contact)
Yoenis Cespedes, OF (122 EP, +71 GAP, 83% Contact)
Michael Conforto, OF (115 EP, +6 GAP, 70% Contact)
Travis d’Arnaud, C (112 EP, +11 GAP, 81% Contact)
MILWAUKEE BREWERS at Jamison Taillon
This is for those players, and you know who you are, who are going to see Jamison Taillon as the chalkiest chalk that chalked the chalk and think: There is no way I am playing Jamison Taillon as chalk – so I am going to stack against him and count all the monies. There are plenty of good reasons that Taillon will be chalk today, his low SIERA, his higher K rates over last 30 days, and the Gerrit Cole performance yesterday against these same Brewers when Cole was also chalk. Still, I get the play, so here are the top bats in MIL to pick from – may the chalk break under your bats.
Eric Thames, 1B (178 EP, +45 GAP, 58% Contact)
Ryan Braun, OF (175 EP, +10 GAP, 78% Contact)
Travis Shaw, 3B (172 EP, -66 GAP, 68% Contact)
Manny Pina, C (130 EP, +69 GAP, 76% Contact)
Jonathan Villar, IF (105 EP, +42 GAP, 67% Contact)
LOS ANGELES DODGERS vs. Mike Foltynewicz
Folty has been excellent lately, getting his K rate in the low 20s% range, scoring a SIERA only slightly above 4 (4.11) over his last 30 days and looking like a solid SP. However, the Braves have traveled over to the West Coast after playing at home yesterday and the Dodgers are waiting for them with a 118 wRC+ and .228 ISO against RHP at home over the last month, right around their numbers for the entire season as well in split. Folty is not a ground ball specialist either, by any means. He has a 33/44 GB/FB% over the last 30 days, which means that those Dodgers power bats will be ready to take aim at the Chavez Ravine backdrop tonight.
Corey Seager, SS (208 EP, +3 GAP, 69% Contact)
Cody Bellinger, 1B/OF (154 EP, -46 GAP, 71% Contact)
Chase Utley, 1B/2B (155 EP, +45 GAP, 78% Contact)
Justin Turner, 3B (193 EP, +32 GAP, 91% Contact)
Joc Pederson, OF (152 EP, -56 GAP, 75% Contact)
Yasmani Grandal, C (151 EP, -41 GAP, 75% Contact)
KANSAS CITY ROYALS vs. Michael Fulmer
Say, did you know that the Royals are fifth in wRC+ at home vs. RHP (307 PAs) over the last 30 days, with a .205 ISO in those games as well? Michael Fulmer is a good pitcher, but on this slate, you are looking for a less traveled angle and Kaufmann Stadium is right there with Dodgers Stadium in terms of runs allowed rate this season, which qualifies as practically Chase to Coors as far as comparisons go with the ballparks on the slate.
Sal Perez, C (139 EP, +4 GAP, 74% Contact)
Brandon Moss, 1B (131 EP, -22 GAP, 60% Contact)
Mike Moustakas, 3B (126 EP, -3 GAP, 85% Contact)
Whit Merrifield, 2B (96 EP, -23 GAP, 84% Contact)
Matt Carpenter, 1B/2B, STL (190 EP, +105 GAP, 85% Contact)
Robinson Cano, 2B, SEA (168 EP, +49 GAP, 84% Contact)
Yadier Molina, C, STL (165 EP, +105 GAP, 85% Contact)
Mike Napoli, 1B, TEX (234 EP, +46 GAP, 62% Contact)
Adrian Beltre, 3B, TEX (144 EP, -1 GAP, 88% Contact)
Chris Herrmann, C/OF (203 EP, +85 GAP, 67% Contact)
Miguel Cabrera, 1B, DET (134 EP, +65 GAP, 83% Contact)
Justin Smoak, 1B, TOR (195 EP, +50 GAP, 73% Contact)
Tons and tons of other great one-off in the tables – please check them out today! If you have any specific asks, feel free to @ me in Slack and check the tables for all updated bats in preparation for today’s slate!
Here is the full table of top expected power hitters, top expected power hitters with high contact rates, and another table for leaders in GAP, a.k.a. Most Owed Power as well as GAP w/High Contact. The new charts on Top Contact and Last Seven Days are in there as well. There is a lot to find in there, so fire away with any questions – find me in the Premium Slack Chat (@jaywalker72). I hope you find all the power today – good luck! – JW