JAYWALKER’S POWER STATION for 7/19/17
The Power Report is back for the Wednesday split slate, where SEVEN games are on the board in the early afternoon and seven more are on the main slate tonight. I will list everything out in one bunch for Top Stacks and One-Offs so check the schedule to make sure when they play. Now let’s get to it!
First a recap of the metrics we are looking at here:
Can’t stress enough to go through the tables and get used to what you are seeing there in addition to the specific write-ups I do in this report – folks are getting an edge with the data, for sure.
We just released a video with me explaining the charts, how to use them, use cases, etc. at the link below:
Expected Power, which is a Baseball HQ/Baseball Info Solutions metric that looks at hard hit percentages, line drive and fly ball rates, and shows what that batters’ rating is on a 100 is average scale.
Actual Power, which is the metric that displays the production that players have actually produced.
GAP: The difference between the two. Positive gaps mean they have underproduced to their metrics, whereas negative indicates regression could soon be coming. It is to show how “real” their production has been and if they are poised for progression or regression.
The purpose of the exercise is to see who is legit, who has been lucky or relatively so, and who has been unlucky and perhaps due for bounce back. Or maybe it is a hitter that has been in a slump, but is showing signs of above average hard contact/power.
The red cells are simply to highlight that they are more volatile due to their low contact rate (Chris/Khris Davis, for examples).
I like to look at last 30 days’ samples to account for adjustments and latest trends. There is a table in the chart for top expected power hitters over the last 30 days with contact rates over 75% for that span, in case you wanted to see a list free from complete windmills like Joey Gallo, Chris/Khris Davis, Alex Avila and the like. Also, I have added a Top Contact table that has all the highest % contact plays with at least the average 100 expected power.
Finally, I added one last table to the report and that is a quick look at the expected power over just the last seven days, with a high contact (75% contact) and 10 at-bat filter applied.
These help us identify who might be relatively off the radar and can be exploited for our success in tournaments tonight!
ATLANTA BRAVES vs. Mike Montgomery (LHP)
The Braves are at home and playing a 1210pm special and get Montgomery, who has been on the side of control issues. If he loses enough control against a resurgent Braves lineup with Freddie Freeman, the 92 degree heat in the ATL will make for a long (and short) day for Montgomery.
Freddie Freeman, 1B (124 EP, -43 GAP, 76% Contact)
Tyler Flowers, C (118 EP, +41 GAP, 72% Contact)
Matt Kemp, OF (L7: 99 EP, +30 GAP, 89% Contact, 18 ABs)
NEW YORK METS vs. Mike Leake (RHP)
The Mets are fourth against RHP at home in wRC+ and get Leake, who will not miss many bats at all against the heavy hitting squad. Throw in the hot weather and wind slightly blowing out and it is a good night for Mets bats.
Curtis Granderson, OF (206 EP, -28 GAP, 70% Contact)
Jay Bruce, OF (179 EP, +39 GAP, 69% Contact)
Lucas Duda, 1B (163 EP, -44 GAP, 71% Contact)
Yoenis Cespedes, OF (117 EP, +73 GAP, 83% Contact)
ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS vs. Tim Adleman (RHP)
Diamondbacks are coming off of a double digit runfest in the Great American Ballpark and get Adleman, who they just saw in Arizona. Only not having Chris Herrmann in the lineup (because Mathis usually catches Zach Greinke) makes this a bummer. Enjoy.
AJ Pollack, OF (176 EP, +88 GAP, 84% Contact)
Chris Owings, SS (175 EP, +26 GAP, 76% Contact)
Paul Goldschmidt, 1B (148 EP, +2 GAP, 73% Contact)
David Peralta, OF (95 EP, +16 GAP, 88% Contact)
Both Jake Lamb and JD Martinez are below the 100 EP line, but Martinez has been excellent over his last 20 ABs and Lamb is lethal against RHP.
TEXAS RANGERS at Kevin Gausman (RHP)
One more time Texas, only because Gausman has been losing it again lately and they have to come through for more than one run on this trip to Camden Yards, right? Right?
Joey Gallo, IF (301 EP, +14 GAP, 40% Contact)
Mike Napoli, 1B (239 EP, +47 GAP, 62% Contact)
Carlos Gomez, OF (160 EP, -20 GAP, 53% Contact)
Shin-Soo Choo, OF (145 EP, +65 GAP, 76% Contact)
Adrian Beltre, 3B (144 EP, +6 GAP, 88% Contact)
Rougned Odor, 2B (130 EP, +44 GAP, 73% Contact)
Giancarlo Stanton, OF, MIA (149 EP, -77 GAP, 71% Contact)
Justin Turner, 3B, LAD (210 EP, +34 GAP, 91% Contact)
Justin Smoak, 1B, TOR (192 EP, +52 GAP, 75% Contact)
Nelson Cruz, OF, SEA (179 EP, +33 GAP, 79% Contact)
Robinson Cano, 2B, SEA (162 EP, +43 GAP, 84% Contact)
Here is the full table of top expected power hitters, top expected power hitters with high contact rates, and another table for leaders in GAP, a.k.a. Most Owed Power as well as GAP w/High Contact. The new charts on Top Contact and Last Seven Days are in there as well. There is a lot to find in there, so fire away with any questions – find me in the Premium Slack Chat (@jaywalker72). I hope you find all the power today – good luck! – JW