JAYWALKER’S POWER STATION for 7/17/17
The Power Report is back for the Monday 12-game super slate, coming in hot with the usual hot bats, GAP riddled underrated sluggers and our usual Matt Carpenter recommendation. Let’s do it!
First a recap of the metrics we are looking at here:
Can’t stress enough to go through the tables and get used to what you are seeing there in addition to the specific write-ups I do in this report – folks are getting an edge with the data, for sure.
We just released a video with me explaining the charts, how to use them, use cases, etc. at the link below:
Expected Power, which is a Baseball HQ/Baseball Info Solutions metric that looks at hard hit percentages, line drive and fly ball rates, and shows what that batters’ rating is on a 100 is average scale.
Actual Power, which is the metric that displays the production that players have actually produced.
GAP: The difference between the two. Positive gaps mean they have underproduced to their metrics, whereas negative indicates regression could soon be coming. It is to show how “real” their production has been and if they are poised for progression or regression.
The purpose of the exercise is to see who is legit, who has been lucky or relatively so, and who has been unlucky and perhaps due for bounce back. Or maybe it is a hitter that has been in a slump, but is showing signs of above average hard contact/power.
The red cells are simply to highlight that they are more volatile due to their low contact rate (Chris/Khris Davis, for examples).
I like to look at last 30 days’ samples to account for adjustments and latest trends. There is a table in the chart for top expected power hitters over the last 30 days with contact rates over 75% for that span, in case you wanted to see a list free from complete windmills like Joey Gallo, Chris/Khris Davis, Alex Avila and the like. Also, I have added a Top Contact table that has all the highest % contact plays with at least the average 100 expected power.
Finally, I added one last table to the report and that is a quick look at the expected power over just the last seven days, with a high contact (75% contact) and 10 at-bat filter applied.
These help us identify who might be relatively off the radar and can be exploited for our success in tournaments tonight!
MAIN SLATE GEMS:
HOUSTON ASTROS vs. Angel Miranda
The Astros are great in every split, across every timeline this season, but specifically to this split, they have a solid 109 wRC+ with a .172 ISO, 10.1% walk rate and miniscule 15.9% K rate across 277 PAs since May 1st in split. Miranda has given up 51% FBs with only 15.2% K-rate and 2.05 HR 9/IP, not ideal when rolling in to face the Astros right now. Houston top bats in expected lineup include:
Josh Reddick, OF (196 EP, +22 GAP, 80% Contact)
George Springer, OF (192 EP, -15 GAP, 81% Contact) – Contact rate still going up, FB rate remaining steady at 43%, which means he is not sacrificing launch angle to get more contact.
Evan Gattis, C (135 EP, -67 GAP, 83% Contact) – Has the most negative gap for HOU, which stems from not playing as much, but look at his contact rate and you can still play him in right matchups like this.
Jake Marisnick, OF (131 EP, -18 GAP, 69% Contact)
Yulieski Gurriel, IF (127 EP, -33 GAP, 89% Contact)
Carlos Beltran, OF (119 EP, +11 GAP, 83% Contact)
Marwin Gonzalez, IF/OF (113 EP, -22 GAP, 73% Contact)
Both Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa are barely at or over 100 EP, both with negative GAP and high contact rates, making them perfectly fine for stacks.
TEXAS RANGERS at Chris Tillman
The Rangers are power heavy, with an ISO of .226 in split over last 30 days. Chris Tillman has historically pitched batter at home, but has terrible this season with his advanced metrics, with the highest contact rate overall on the slate (87%), only getting 14% Ks, serving up 2 HR per 9 IP and rocking an awful 5.62 SIERA over his last 30 days. Top bats among expected lineup, but remember to blend in high contact bats with the extreme power bunkers.
Joey Gallo, IF (EP 326, +56 GAP, 41% Contact) – Almost impossible to be more extreme than Gallo, who also has a 72% FB rate when he does manage to whack the ball.
Mike Napoli, 1B (238 EP, +13 GAP, 63% Contact)
Carlos Gomez, OF (174 EP, -37 GAP, 53% Contact)
Adrian Beltre, 3B (146 EP, +7 GAP, 88% Contact) – Pretty much a must include in any TEX stack due to his combination high/hard contact.
Rougned Odor, 2B (144 EP, +25 GAP, 73% Contact)
Shin-Soo Choo, OF (137 EP, +59 GAP, 77% Contact) – So much GAP bats high, good contact – another one you should very seriously consider for stacks.
NEW YORK METS vs. Adam Wainwright
The Mets have been terrific at home against RHP, scoring a second best 148 wRC+ and .240 ISO in split over their last 30 days. Adam Wainwright has had a couple of good outing recently, but there is danger up and down this Mets lineup. Top bats:
Curtis Granderson, OF (224 EP, -10 GAP, 70% Contact) – He has caught up in GAP, contact rate dropping, so he is less a lock than a couple of weeks ago, but still viable if leading off, for sure.
Lucas Duda, 1B (159 EP, -24 GAP, 69% Contact)
Jay Bruce, OF (153 EP, +3 GAP, 72% Contact)
Yoenis Cespedes, OF (128 EP, +67 GAP, 84% Contact)
CHICAGO CUBS at Julio Teheran
Teheran struggles against LHH, and the Cubs have begun to warm up in split, with a 108 wRC+ and .218 ISO in split over the last 30 days (444 PA). Top Bats:
Willson Contreras, C/OF (137 EP, -52 GAP, 78% Contact)
Anthony Rizzo, 1B (130 EP, -7 GAP, 86% Contact)
Jason Heyward, OF (110 EP, +19 GAP, 87% Contact)
Ian Happ, 2B/OF (107 EP, -33 GAP, 76% Contact)
Matt Carpenter, 1B, STL (213 EP, +124 GAP, 82% Contact) – He is the equivalent of being 12 months pregnant. Wheeler better pitch with a screen in front of him.
Ryan Braun, OF, MIL (199 EP, +9 GAP, 80% Contact) – Will go against the polarizing Chad Kuhl of PIT.
Yadier Molina, C, STL (181 EP, +88 GAP, 85% Contact) – Another preggo Cardinal, Molina has usurped Sal Perez as catcher play in the middle of the lineup, non-stack division.
Logan Morrison, 1B, TAM (173 EP, +12 GAP, 78% Contact) – Keeps on truckin, gets a sweet matchup with Gossett tonight.
Khris Davis, OF, OAK (179 EP, -36 GAP, 60% Contact) – Against Jake Odorizzi, who has almost 3 HR per 9 IP over his last 30, with a 50+% FB rate, Davis is a great play here to take advantage.
Miguel Cabrera, 1B, DET (159 EP, +58, 78% Contact) – Cabrera gets a slumping Jason Vargas in the heat of Kansas City.
Josh Harrison, IF, PIT (132 EP, +63 EP, 79% Contact) – High in the lineup against LHP Suter for MIL
Mitch Moreland, 1B, BOS (144 EP, +82 GAP, 75% Contact) – Not an easy matchup against TOR SP Stroman, but a solid one-off in tourneys or inclusion in BOS stack.
Francisco Lindor, SS, CLE (123 EP, +33 GAP, 88% Contact) – Top of the lineup against punching bag LHP Matt Moore, though in SF.
Eric Thames, 1B, MIL (218 EP, +36 GAP, 62% Contact)
That’s the list! If you have any specific asks, feel free to @ me in Slack and check the tables for all updated bats in preparation for today’s slate!
Here is the full table of top expected power hitters, top expected power hitters with high contact rates, and another table for leaders in GAP, a.k.a. Most Owed Power as well as GAP w/High Contact. The new charts on Top Contact and Last Seven Days are in there as well. There is a lot to find in there, so fire away with any questions – find me in the Premium Slack Chat (@jaywalker72). I hope you find all the power today – good luck! – JW