JAYWALKER’S POWER STATION for 7/15/17 MAIN SLATE
The Power Report is back for the Saturday Showdown, with a 13-game main slate tonight on all sites. Good times abound!
First a recap of the metrics we are looking at here:
Can’t stress enough to go through the tables and get used to what you are seeing there in addition to the specific write-ups I do in this report – folks are getting an edge with the data, for sure.
We just released a video with me explaining the charts, how to use them, use cases, etc. at the link below:
Expected Power, which is a Baseball HQ/Baseball Info Solutions metric that looks at hard hit percentages, line drive and fly ball rates, and shows what that batters’ rating is on a 100 is average scale.
Actual Power, which is the metric that displays the production that players have actually produced.
GAP: The difference between the two. Positive gaps mean they have underproduced to their metrics, whereas negative indicates regression could soon be coming. It is to show how “real” their production has been and if they are poised for progression or regression.
The purpose of the exercise is to see who is legit, who has been lucky or relatively so, and who has been unlucky and perhaps due for bounce back. Or maybe it is a hitter that has been in a slump, but is showing signs of above average hard contact/power.
The red cells are simply to highlight that they are more volatile due to their low contact rate (Chris/Khris Davis, for examples).
I like to look at last 30 days’ samples to account for adjustments and latest trends. There is a table in the chart for top expected power hitters over the last 30 days with contact rates over 75% for that span, in case you wanted to see a list free from complete windmills like Joey Gallo, Chris/Khris Davis, Alex Avila and the like. Also, I have added a Top Contact table that has all the highest % contact plays with at least the average 100 expected power.
Finally, I added one last table to the report and that is a quick look at the expected power over just the last seven days, with a high contact (75% contact) and 10 at-bat filter applied.
These help us identify who might be relatively off the radar and can be exploited for our success in tournaments tonight!
MAIN SLATE GEMS:
Plenty of stacky places to go on this slate, as there are a number of weak SPs that have proven to be profitable to target, so who are the bats that are warm enough to do damage?
HOUSTON vs. Ervin Santana
They took apart a far better pitcher last night in Berrios, and Erv has begun to do a traditional slide from his early season excellence, lowering his K and GB rates and sliding higher in contact, home run rate and SIERA. The Astros are a bad team to be weaker than normal, so here are the top bats, as expected lineup projects:
Josh Reddick, OF (203 EP, +6 GAP, 82% Contact) – Have to love the high contact, high power and reasonable price across the industry – batting second, too!
George Springer, OF (194 EP, -33 GAP, 79% Contact) – As said on today’s podcast, the reason Springer has been an awesome leadoff man this season is that his contact rate is way up. So is his price, but you can see why in his metrics.
Carlos Beltran, OF (134 EP, +23 GAP, 82% Contact) – Price is down and he does not strike people as a big score threat, but even batting fifth or sixth in this lineup is a profitable place.
Marwin Gonzalez, IF (118 EP, -11 GAP, 78% Contact) – High contact bats to fit into stacks.
METS vs. Tyler Chatwood
Chatwood seems to be a solid pitcher, but his lack of contact has gotten the best of him lately, scoring a really poor 6.26 SIERA over his last 30 days. His GB rate has dipped below 50% as well, so while he has not been giving up the long ball, he has been nicked up real well in games anyway. Along come the Mets, who are second in WRC+ vs. RHP at home over the last 30 days (231 PA), with a .218 ISO. Who are these bats?
Curtis Granderson, OF (223 EP, -26 GAP, 72% Contact) – The Grandy Man can….as long as he is in the lineup. Superb power.
Lucas Duda, 1B (146 EP, -27 GAP, 69% Contact) – Also a stellar 49% FB rate, Duda you would hope bats higher than 7th today to get more chances.
Jay Bruce, OF (142 EP, +8 GAP, 72% Contact)
Yoenis Cespedes, OF (137 EP, +68 GAP, 83% Contact) – Look at that GAP, Becky, it is so BIG. High contact rate means he can close that GAP quickly.
Asdrubal Cabrera, IF (111 EP, +30 GAP, 89% Contact rate) – Must include in any Mets stack due to high contact stability.
CUBS vs. Wade Miley
Less about the Cubs value against LHP on the road (they are ok), but more about Miley, who has a 13% walk rate, 2 HR per 9 IP, 90% contact rate in the zone, and 5.17 SIERA over L30.
Willson Contreras, C/OF (140 EP, -49 GAP, 74% Contact) – If he is the winner of the Joe Maddon Daily Leadoff Lottery again today, fire him up.
Anthony Rizzo, 1B (125 EP, -5 GAP, 86% Contact)
Ian Happ, 2B/OF (116 EP, -41 GAP, 75 Contact)
Justin Turner, 3B, LAD (210 EP, +51 GAP, 92% Contact) – Jose Urena gives up the power to RHH
Ryan Braun, OF, MIL (209 EP, -9 GAP, 80% Contact) – Aaron Nola is a tough SP, but Braun is locked in in the middle of a powerful offense.
Matt Carpenter, 1B, STL (209 EP, +100 GAP, 83% Contact) – Jamison Taillon is a good SP, but does give up a lot of contact in the zone, where Carpenter is keyed into.
Logan Morrison, 1B, TAM ( 188 EP, +34 GAP, 79% Contact) – Morrison makes our TOP CONTACT table today, hard to believe. JC Ramirez struggles more to LHH.
Robinson Cano, 2B, SEA (157 EP, +40 GAP, 85% Contact) – Hope you have been playing him, as he has been closing a lot of GAP and now gets CHW SP Mike Pelfrey.
Yadier Molina, C, STL (156 EP, +80 GAP, 88% Contact) – Has been stinging the ball and created some major GAP – Taillon will be in the zone, so Molina will have his chances today.
Josh Bell, 1B, PIT (143 EP, -7 GAP, 84% Contact) – LHH will have some FB success against Lance Lynn.
Brian Dozier, 2B, MIN (126 EP, +33 GAP, 75% Contact) – Solid cash game play at a weak position, batting leadoff.
That’s the list! If you have any specific asks, feel free to @ me in Slack and check the tables for all updated bats in preparation for today’s slate!
Here is the full table of top expected power hitters, top expected power hitters with high contact rates, and another table for leaders in GAP, a.k.a. Most Owed Power as well as GAP w/High Contact. The new charts on Top Contact and Last Seven Days are in there as well. There is a lot to find in there, so fire away with any questions – find me in the Premium Slack Chat (@jaywalker72). I hope you find all the power today – good luck! – JW