JAYWALKER’S POWER STATION for 6/9/17
The Power Report is back for this 14 game weekend kickoff spectacular! Let’s get to the good stuff!
First a recap of the metrics we are looking at here:
Expected Power, which is a Baseball HQ/Baseball Info Solutions metric that looks at hard hit percentages, line drive and fly ball rates, and shows what that batters’ rating is on a 100 is average scale.
Actual Power, which is the metric that displays the production that players have actually produced.
GAP: The difference between the two. Positive gaps mean they have underproduced to their metrics, whereas negative indicates regression could soon be coming. It is to show how “real” their production has been and if they are poised for progression or regression.
The purpose of the exercise is to see who is legit, who has been lucky or relatively so, and who has been unlucky and perhaps due for bounce back. Or maybe it is a hitter that has been in a slump, but is showing signs of above average hard contact/power.
The red cells are simply to highlight that they are more volatile due to their low contact rate (Chris/Khris Davis, for examples).
I like to look at last 30 days’ samples to account for adjustments and latest trends. I added a table in the chart for top expected power hitters over the last 30 days with contact rates over 75% for that span, in case you wanted to see a list free from complete windmills like Joey Gallo, Chris/Khris Davis, Alex Avila and the like.
These help us identify who might be relatively off the radar and can be exploited for our success in tournaments tonight!
MAIN SLATE GEMS:
Checking the top of our GAP chart, we see Matt Carpenter, 1B, STL (193 EP, +121 GAP, 75% Contact) taking on RHP Jeremy Hellickson in STL. Hellickson has been pitching to a lot of contact this season and getting over 20% soft contact and limiting the hard contact. But giving up a lot of contact to someone that is hitting as hard as Carp is right now isn’t a great idea.
Other Cardinals on our board today are: Dexter Fowler, OF (147 EP, +26 GAP, 78% Contact), Stephen Piscotty, OF (100 EP, +6 GAP, 81% Contact), who is just getting back into the groove after returning from injury and Jedd Gyorko, 3B (130 EP, +70 GAP, 78% Contact).
Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, ARI (234 EP, +71 GAP, 76% Contact) is at home against an improving but still below average Kyle Davies, RHP, MIL. Additionally, we see Jake Lamb, 3B (127 EP, -63 GAP, 77% Contact), who has definitely overproduced to his metrics over the last 30 days but has seen his contact rate rise significantly, a plus for this matchup. Daniel Descalso, 2B/OF (193 EP, +5 GAP, 65% Contact) is more of an all or nothing type play, but has maintained hard contact throughout the season and is playing with Yasmany Tomas on the DL.
BOS LHP Brian Johnson dazzled his last time out, but his 84.1% Contact Rate and 91.4% Contact rate in the strike zone does not matchup up well with the Tigers and all of their RHH power. Miguel Cabrera, 1B (152 EP, +72 GAP, 80% Contact) is the kind of high contact, backlogged power bat we want to target here. Here is a list of the rest of the Tigers on this chart that are also probable for this game:
Ian Kinsler, 2B (100 EP, +31 GAP, 89% Contact)
Victor Martinez, 1B (173 EP, +55 GAP, 85% Contact)
Nick Castellanos, 3B (132 EP, +58 GAP, 74% Contact)
JD Martinez, OF (220 EP, -39 GAP, 71% Contact)
Justin Upton, OF (194 EP, +25 GAP, 69% Contact)
Over in Pittsburgh, there are a couple of Pirates making the list against one of the lowest rated SPs of the slate in Vance Worley. One is Andrew McCutchen, OF (157 EP, +56 GAP, 75% Contact) and the other is Josh Harrison, 2B/3B (110 EP, +24 GAP, 84% Contact). And even in only 17 ABs since replacing Francisco Cervelli as the Pirates catcher, Elias Diaz, C (141 EP, -22 GAP, 88% Contact) has shown great competency at low prices.
Toronto has three active guys on the Expected Power with High Contact Rates list, Josh Donaldson, 3B (187 EP, -45 GAP, 80% Contact), Justin Smoak, 1B (173 EP, -30 GAP, 83% Contact) and Jose Bautista, OF (133 EP, -20 GAP, 80% Contact). They are going against SEA RHP Sam Gaviglio, who has given up the fourth most contact in the strike zone over the last 30 days among SPs on this slate. A fourth Jay, Ezequiel Carrera, OF (118 EP, +70 GAP, 78% Contact) shows up sixth on our GAP w/high contact chart.
There is so much GAP is SEA, where Kyle Seager, 3B (197 EP, +90 GAP, 78% Contact) is joined by Robinson Cano, 2B (152 EP, +34 GAP, 90% Contact) and Ben Gamel, OF (103 EP, +37 GAP, 68% Contact), but the matchup against the tough Joe Biagini, the TOR RHP, means maybe a one-off instead of stack in this case.
Much to tackle today! Check the tables for more hitters from the rest of the slate tonight!
Speaking of which, here is the full table of top expected power hitters, top expected power hitters with high contact rates, and another table for leaders in GAP, a.k.a. Most Owed Power as well as GAP w/High Contact. Feel free to ask about anybody specifically and enjoy!
There is a lot to find in there, so fire away with any questions – find me in the Premium Slack Chat (@jaywalker72). I hope you find all the power today – good luck! – JW