JAYWALKER’S POWER STATION for 6/7/17 MAIN SLATE
The Power Report is back for this oddball, Wednesday split slate. We have three games early @ 310pm EST and the rest are on the regular main slate. We’ll have some Early Slate Nuggets of goodness and then the Main Slate Gems so let us enjoy!
First a recap of the metrics we are looking at here:
Expected Power, which is a Baseball HQ/Baseball Info Solutions metric that looks at hard hit percentages, line drive and fly ball rates, and shows what that batters’ rating is on a 100 is average scale.
Actual Power, which is the metric that displays the production that players have actually produced.
GAP: The difference between the two. Positive gaps mean they have underproduced to their metrics, whereas negative indicates regression could soon be coming. It is to show how “real” their production has been and if they are poised for progression or regression.
The purpose of the exercise is to see who is legit, who has been lucky or relatively so, and who has been unlucky and perhaps due for bounce back. Or maybe it is a hitter that has been in a slump, but is showing signs of above average hard contact/power.
The red cells are simply to highlight that they are more volatile due to their low contact rate (Chris/Khris Davis, for examples).
I like to look at last 30 days’ samples to account for adjustments and latest trends. I added a table in the chart for top expected power hitters over the last 30 days with contact rates over 75% for that span, in case you wanted to see a list free from complete windmills like Joey Gallo, Chris/Khris Davis, Alex Avila and the like.
These help us identify who might be relatively off the radar and can be exploited for our success in tournaments tonight!
EARLY SLATE NUGGETS:
Ryon Healy, 1B/3B, OAK (173 EP, -2 GAP, 76% Contact) has finally caught up to his metrics and now sits as a top ten expected power hit in our expected power with high contact list. He is the top Oakland bat at home against LHP in terms of wRC+ and has the volatile TOR LHP Francisco Liriano in house.
Khris Davis, OF, OAK (166 EP, -2 GAP, 63% Contact) has also closed his GAP, but has not done as well against LHP at home this season, though that sample size is super small. If you are stacking the A’s against Liriano, then Davis’ high expected power should be a part of that as well.
Charlie Blackmon, OF, COL (137 EP, +0 GAP, 77% Contact) He metrics are finally getting up to his salary level across the industry. Against Trevor Bauer, who has given up 40+% hard contact and over a .400 wOBA to LHH away from CLE this season, Blackmon leading off is a great place to go if you are differentiating elsewhere.
OAK SP Jharel Cotton has given up more hard contact and a higher wOBA to RHH this season, and while recently DL’d Devon Travis, 2B, TOR (180 EP, -3 GAP, 80% Contact) would have been excellent here, Jose Bautista, OF, TOR (130 EP, -9 GAP, 81% Contact) gives a nice price on DK today and fits the bill on reverse splits.
An interesting lower price play in Toronto could be Ezequiel Carrera, OF (118 EP, +70 GAP, 76% Contact) who has a ton of backlogged production there and higher contact rates – if he is batting high in the Jays lineup, he is a nice bargain on DK at $2,900.
On the Cleveland side of Coors, Yan Gomes, C (170 EP, -4 GAP, 68% Contact) is solid if in the lineup and batting at least seventh. Carlos Santana, 1B (138 EP, +1 GAP, 77% Contact) and Jason Kipnis, 2B (136 EP, +7 GAP, 84% Contact) have great metrics, even if in a L-L matchup.
Nobody is going to want to take batters in the WAS/LAD matchup featuring Stephen Strasburg for the visitors and Clayton Kershaw for the home team. Good reason – both are elite and neither team is featuring any hitters who are locked in on our expected power charts. One guy you may consider if you insist on being contrarian and attacking the chalk SPs is Adrian Gonzalez, 1B (107 EP, +4 GAP, 80% Contact) who is still in the middle of the lineup, has made high contact and has a 128 EP over the past seven days as well.
MAIN SLATE GEMS:
Seattle is the new Oakland on The Power Report these days, with Kyle Seager, 3B (201 EP, +91 GAP, 78% Contact) leading the way and Robinson Cano, 2B (159 EP, +34 GAP, 90% Contact) next with an elite contact rate number. Cano is locked in and showed last night that L on L did not matter. Both guys had solid games and get the same sort of matchup with Aldaberto Mejia of the Twins. If he plays, Nelson Cruz, OF (135 EP, -9 GAP, 81% Contact) is still in play, even at higher salary.
With PIT RHP Chad Kuhl really struggling with LHH, Chris Davis, 1B (220 EP, -15 GAP, 53% Contact) is a prime play if you can handle strikeouts. Seth Smith, OF (133 EP, +24 GAP, 70% Contact) has kinda gone the some whiffy way as Davis lately, but the fly ball rates and hard hit metrics are still there.
CIN is pitching Bronson Arroyo, and he is allowing hard contact and production to both sides of the plate, though LHH are getting nearly 4 HR/9 IP (10 HR in 107 BF). A quick look at our charts say that, once again, Matt Carpenter, 1B (179 EP, +113 GAP, 75% Contact) should be an amazing play again, though he has more than let us down the last two sweet spots for him. Maybe it will dissuade.
Also, Dexter Fowler, OF (162 EP, +45 GAP, 78% Contact) is great at the top of the order. And, if you can forget the multi-K output against Asher Wojiechowski, Jedd Gyorko, 3B (140 EP, +61 GAP, 76% Contact) is another nice piece of that stack.
Despite their heartbreaking tendencies, the Tigers are still a go for this matchup with young LAA RHP Alex Meyer. Meyer has K upside but does give up more production to LHH, meaning that elite power bat Alex Avila, C/1B (282 EP, +8 GAP, 60% Contact) is still awesome to play right now and Victor Martinez, 1B (168 EP, +56 GAP, 88% Contact), who bats fourth typically, is strong tonight, too.
The Cubs are waking up and MIA SP Jose Urena has given up solid contact to LHH and power to RHH. Kyle Schwarber, OF (169 EP, +36 GAP, 64% Contact), Jason Heyward, OF (166 EP, +51 GAP, 90% Contact), Ben Zobrist, 2B/OF (159 EP, +66 GAP, 85% Contact) and Kris Bryant, 3B (138 EP, -22 GAP, 77% Contact) look good here.
Finally, when you look at the top of the charts and see that Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, ARI (231 EP, +77 GAP, 78% Contact) is home and extremely owed power, it does not matter who is pitching, he’s is a sensational play. Sorry, Perdomo Dude.
Much to tackle today! Check the tables for more hitters from TAM, PIT, ATL, PHI, MIL and the rest of the slate tonight!
Here is the full table of top expected power hitters, top expected power hitters with high contact rates, and another table for leaders in GAP, a.k.a. Most Owed Power as well as GAP w/High Contact. Feel free to ask about anybody specifically and enjoy!
There is a lot to find in there, so fire away with any questions – find me in the Premium Slack Chat (@jaywalker72). I hope you find all the power today – good luck! – JW