JAYWALKER’S POWER STATION for 6/6/17
The Power Report is back for this full on 15-game slate! Almost all the popular hitting parks are on the board tonight (Coors, Chase, Miller, SunTrust, GAB, Texas and Yankee Stadium) so let’s see who we can target tonight.
First a recap of the metrics we are looking at here:
Expected Power, which is a Baseball HQ/Baseball Info Solutions metric that looks at hard hit percentages, line drive and fly ball rates, and shows what that batters’ rating is on a 100 is average scale.
Actual Power, which is the metric that displays the production that players have actually produced.
GAP: The difference between the two. Positive gaps mean they have underproduced to their metrics, whereas negative indicates regression could soon be coming. It is to show how “real” their production has been and if they are poised for progression or regression.
The purpose of the exercise is to see who is legit, who has been lucky or relatively so, and who has been unlucky and perhaps due for bounce back. Or maybe it is a hitter that has been in a slump, but is showing signs of above average hard contact/power.
The red cells are simply to highlight that they are more volatile due to their low contact rate (Chris/Khris Davis, for examples).
I like to look at last 30 days’ samples to account for adjustments and latest trends. I added a table in the chart for top expected power hitters over the last 30 days with contact rates over 75% for that span, in case you wanted to see a list free from complete windmills like Joey Gallo, Chris/Khris Davis, Alex Avila and the like.
These help us identify who might be relatively off the radar and can be exploited for our success in tournaments tonight!
MAIN SLATE GEMS:
The Tigers are interesting plays tonight. Since all those parks are in play tonight, as described above, a Tigers stack against LAA SP Jesse Chavez in a split that the Tigers have dominated this season will be much less targeted than most other slates.
JD Martinez, OF (229 EP, -43 GAP,75% Contact) and Alex Avila, C/1B (274 EP, +32 GAP, 60% Contact) have the most expected power. Avila has been remarkable in his pure power. To be owed power despite sucha high output number is incredible. Also, Avila contact rate over the last seven days is 13% higher than his L30 number.
Another Tiger that has seen a high rise in contact rate, while also maintaining a high level of hard contact is Justin Upton, OF (197 EP, +39 GAP, 71% Contact). Upton’s contact rate over the last seven days is 23% higher than his L30 scan.
Detroit has a lot of hitters on our charts so mix and match:
Miguel Cabrera, 1B (166 EP, +81 GAP, 76% Contact) – second most owed production among qualified hitters on our chart
Victor Martinez, 1B (143 EP, +41 GAP, 86% Contact) – Contact rate tops among the listed Tigers, cheap pivot from Miggy.
Nick Castellanos, 3B (130 EP, +61 GAP, 74% Contact) – massive bad luck this season for Castellanos.
Alright, enough Tigers talk, what about the others?
Nelson Cruz, OF (131 EP, -9 GAP, 83% Contact) leads our fearless trio of hitters in Seattle against MIN LHP Hector Santiago. But it is only Cruz that has been really good at home against LHP this season (small sample) as Robinson Cano, 2B (165 EP, +60 GAP, 90% Contact) and Kyle Seager, 3B (186 EP, +95 GAP, 77% Contact) have been well below average in wRC+ in split, but again, small sample. Bear in mind, too, that Santiago has been crushed by LHH over his career, giving up a .330 wOBA last season and already yielding five home runs in 45 batters faced this season against LHH.
If you wanted to play the other side of that Tigers game, the Angels get to face Daniel Norris, who has been very hittable and with authority this season. Albert Pujols, 1B (148 EP, +60 GAP, 86% Contact) has picked up some slack from Mike Trout’s injury and Trout is at the top of our charts right now in absentia. A bit more volatile a play is Danny Espinosa, 3B (192 EP, +67 GAP, 61% Contact)
Michael Conforto, OF, NYM (221 EP, +14 GAP, 68% Contact) leads the Mets in Texas against RHP Dillon Gee. Conforto has a 14% higher contact rate over L7 (82%) than he has over L30. That, with his 50% FB rate over L7 makes him a great target leading off the game in Texas.
Other Mets include Jay Bruce, OF (165 EP, +49 GAP, 72% Contact), Wilmer Flores, 3B (151 EP, +36 GAP, 84% Contact) and middle infielders Neil Walker, 2B (131 EP, -5 GAP, 84% Contact) and Asdrubal Cabrera, SS (112 EP, +36 GAP, 86% Contact).
Lucas Duda, 1B (139 EP, -48 GAP, 79% Contact) has been great, but his price is higher and has slightly overproduced. Rene Rivera, C (171 EP, +87 GAP, 67% Contact) has seen 24% less contact over the last week (43%) thank over his last 30 days.
Finally, if you have been a consistent reader of this article then you have seen the espousal of praise heaped here onto Ryon Healy, 1B/3B, OAK (186 EP, +9 GAP, 77% Contact). Little by little, his GAP has shrunk (a pair of 2-HR games will do that) and is still a prime target against even the likes of TOR SP Marco Estrada.
It is the Seattle Mariners, Detroit Tigers and New York Mets that have taken the torch from the A’s as the team with most GAP representation.
Much to tackle today on a full slate! Check the tables for more hitters from the rest of the picture tonight!
Here is the full table of top expected power hitters, top expected power hitters with high contact rates, and another table for leaders in GAP, a.k.a. Most Owed Power as well as GAP w/High Contact. Feel free to ask about anybody specifically and enjoy!
There is a lot to find in there, so fire away with any questions – find me in the Premium Slack Chat (@jaywalker72). I hope you find all the power today – good luck! – JW