JAYWALKER’S POWER STATION for 6/5/17
The Power Report is back for this sweet spot seven game slate Monday night!
First a recap of the metrics we are looking at here:
Expected Power, which is a Baseball HQ/Baseball Info Solutions metric that looks at hard hit percentages, line drive and fly ball rates, and shows what that batters’ rating is on a 100 is average scale.
Actual Power, which is the metric that displays the production that players have actually produced.
GAP: The difference between the two. Positive gaps mean they have underproduced to their metrics, whereas negative indicates regression could soon be coming. It is to show how “real” their production has been and if they are poised for progression or regression.
The purpose of the exercise is to see who is legit, who has been lucky or relatively so, and who has been unlucky and perhaps due for bounce back. Or maybe it is a hitter that has been in a slump, but is showing signs of above average hard contact/power.
The red cells are simply to highlight that they are more volatile due to their low contact rate (Chris/Khris Davis, for examples).
I like to look at last 30 days’ samples to account for adjustments and latest trends. I added a table in the chart for top expected power hitters over the last 30 days with contact rates over 75% for that span, in case you wanted to see a list free from complete windmills like Joey Gallo, Chris/Khris Davis, Alex Avila and the like.
These help us identify who might be relatively off the radar and can be exploited for our success in tournaments tonight!
MAIN SLATE GEMS:
Matt Carpenter, 1B, STL (217 EP, +112 GAP, 72% Contact) Is our current leader in 30 day GAP and is fifth overall in expected power over the last 30 days. Tonight he is in the hitter’s box, the Great American Ballpark and faces Asher Wojciechowski, who has struggled mightily with hard contact in his first eight innings this season.
Dexter Fowler, OF, STL (177 EP, +40 GAP, 78% Contact) should also be considered against Woj, as he should be leading the Cardinals effort off today as well. If you are looking for another Redbird to put in the stack, consider Jedd Gyorko, 3B (128 EP, +41 GAP, 79% Contact) who has shown good contact and Woj has already given up 3 HR in those 8 IP to RHH.
Sal Perez, C, KCR (178 EP, +71 GAP, 79% Contact) Mike Fiers has already given up an insane number of home runs to RHH this season, and Sal is the best the Royals have, by far. Perez has consistently been near the top of our power charts this season and currently comes in third in expected power among high contact rate bats and has the sixth most GAP overall, and fourth most among high contact bats.
Whit Merrifield, 2B, KCR (141 EP, +40 GAP, 85% Contact) is another high contact, high expected and owed power bat in the Royals lineup – watch where he gets placed in the lineup, but if Ned Yost finally leads him off like he should be instead of auto-out Alcides Escobar, then lock him in against Fiers.
Folks are going to want to stack players in the PHI/ATL game in SunTrust in Atlanta, and I understand it. Bartolo Colon and Nick Pivetta do not grade out highly here, but there are very little Braves names on our charts and absolutely zero Phillies. Aaron Altherr, OF, PHI (117 EP, -21 GAP, 70% Contact) grades out the highest for the Phillies.
For the Braves, we do see Matt Adams, 1B (154 EP, -27 GAP, 72% Contact) doing a weaker Freddie Freeman out there for Atlanta. Popular play Matt Kemp, OF (94 EP, -22 GAP, 80% Contact) has not brought the hard contact, but has made good contact, which may be enough here.
STL SP Carlos Martinez dominates RHH, but LHH have gotten to him for a 39% hard contact rate and a 4.21 xFIP. Not lock it in type of numbers, but if you were to want to go against some grain, Joey Votto, 1B (165 EP, +26 GAP, 83% Contact) and Scott Schebler, OF (173 EP, +27 GAP, 82% Contact) would be the way to go there.
Say, did you know that the Oakland A’s are the eighth best team against LHP at home this season? The best on the team so far this season is Ryon Healy, 1B/3B (189 EP, +15 GAP, 74% Contact), who has finally caught up on his GAP, for the most part, and folks are realizing what a potent bat he possesses.
A surprising bat, and one that may match up well with TOR SP J.A. Happ, is Yonder Alonso, 1B (201 EP, -69 GAP, 75% Contact). Happ has given up a couple of blasts to LHH and Alonso has the second best wRC+ against LHP at home this season so far, behind Healy. Alonso has some regression coming as you see from that negative GAP, but is still a strong bat here, nonetheless.
Check the tables for more hitters from TOR, LAD, MIL, CHC, MIA and the rest of the slate!
Here is the full table of top expected power hitters, top expected power hitters with high contact rates, and another table for leaders in GAP, a.k.a. Most Owed Power as well as GAP w/High Contact. Feel free to ask about anybody specifically and enjoy!
There is a lot to find in there, so fire away with any questions – find me in the Premium Slack Chat (@jaywalker72). I hope you find all the power today – good luck! – JW