JAYWALKER’S POWER STATION for 6/3/17
The Power Report is back for this ready for the Saturday split slate, with nine games at 2pm and five on the night slate!
First a recap of the metrics we are looking at here:
Expected Power, which is a Baseball HQ/Baseball Info Solutions metric that looks at hard hit percentages, line drive and fly ball rates, and shows what that batters’ rating is on a 100 is average scale.
Actual Power, which is the metric that displays the production that players have actually produced.
GAP: The difference between the two. Positive gaps mean they have underproduced to their metrics, whereas negative indicates regression could soon be coming. It is to show how “real” their production has been and if they are poised for progression or regression.
The purpose of the exercise is to see who is legit, who has been lucky or relatively so, and who has been unlucky and perhaps due for bounce back. Or maybe it is a hitter that has been in a slump, but is showing signs of above average hard contact/power.
The red cells are simply to highlight that they are more volatile due to their low contact rate (Chris/Khris Davis, for examples).
I like to look at last 30 days’ samples to account for adjustments and latest trends. I added a table in the chart for top expected power hitters over the last 30 days with contact rates over 75% for that span, in case you wanted to see a list free from complete windmills like Joey Gallo, Chris/Khris Davis, Alex Avila and the like.
These help us identify who might be relatively off the radar and can be exploited for our success in tournaments tonight!
EARLY SLATE NUGGETS:
Miguel Cabrera, 1B, DET (173 EP, +88 GAP, 75% Contact) started to emerge from his unlucky corner and is still fourth among our expected power leaders with 75% or higher contact and THE leader in GAP among the same.
Alex Avila, C, DET (285 EP, +47 GAP, 57% Contact) continues to be a windmill at the plate, but the expected power is so profound at catcher that, if he is still batting second at home against Miguel Gonzalez, he is worth a play as the leader in expected power over the last 30 days and still with some owned power.
Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, ARI (233 EP, +56 GAP, 79% Contact) It is tough to go against Goldy, even in a pitcher’s park like Miami, but he gets the nice reverse splits both for him and Edinson Volquez, and with him being so locked in over the last 30 days, third in expected power, first in high contact expected power and with GAP, there is no problem with him at any price right now.
Dexter Fowler, OF, STL (184 EP, +42 GAP, 79% Contact) We like Fowler against LHP and he gets Jon Lester, who is tough, but with favorable weather conditions in Chicago, where Fowler is exacting some fun against his old teammates. Visiting team’s leadoff man in a favorable split is a good play here.
Matt Carpenter, 1B, STL (217 EP, +112 GAP, 72% Contact) The leader in GAP among all qualified hitters, Carpenter is an interesting, low cost play on DK, where he is an absurd $3,100. Carp has been an elite power guy for three seasons and will be very low owned on this slate against LHP Lester.
Khris Davis, OF, OAK (202 EP, +68 GAP, 63% Contact) Along the same lines as Avila, Davis is an all or nothing power bat, but has a decent matchup at home against WAS SP Joe Ross. Davis has been able to go for power against either handed pitcher, and will be batting in the middle of the A’s lineup, making for a popular one-off in the A’s lineup.
In fact, look at the OAK bats near the top of the EP List, after Davis:
Yonder Alonso, 1B (190 EP, -86 GAP, 74% Contact)
Ryon Healy, 1B/3B (172 EP, +40 GAP, 73% Contact)
Matt Joyce, OF, (172 EP, +32 GAP, 72% Contact)
Chad Pinder, 2B/SS (172 EP, -116 GAP, 62% Contact)
The low contact rates means they are risky to stack, but as one-offs and punts, they are prime targets.
JD Martinez, OF, DET (230 EP, -34 GAP, 72% Contact) JDM continues to bring the power. Sure, there is little GAP as compared to Cabrera and Avila, but the -34 GAP does not indicate too much regression here and his baseline EP is still super elite.
While we are here, the Tigers still have some in the leaders table that have not been mentioned, if you can believe it.
Justin Upton, OF (164 EP, +33 GAP, 66% Contact)
Victor Martinez, 1B (161 EP, +55 GAP, 85% Contact)
A couple of Miami bats make our list here: Justin Bour, 1B (180 EP, -47 GAP) and J.T. Riddle, SS (143 EP, +20 GAP) will have the platoon advantage here against RHP Randal Delgado. Bour is nobody’s secret anymore, he is being well owned but now his priced has jumped into elite status, which may deter some. Riddle is still somewhat of a secret, but we are hoping he is batting first or second, rather than eighth, before we roster him.
Aaron Hicks, OF, NYY (152 EP, +10 GAP, 76% Contact) is making life difficult for when Jacoby Ellsbury comes back, as Hicks has hit both handed pitchers well. He is batting second today in the middle of a Yankees lineup that is top three against RHP, and on the road.
If you are included to stack Cubs today against STL SP Mike Leake, here are the three Cubs that have made it onto the list:
Kyle Schwarber, OF (169 EP, +35 GAP, 64% Contact) – batting ninth today (!)
Jason Heyward, OF (145 EP, +31 GAP, 84% Contact)
Ben Zobrist, OF (144 EP, +54 GAP, 83% Contact)
Finally the Reds, who are at home against RHP RA Dickey, are still showing Joey Votto, 1B (161 EP, +27 GAP, 84% Contact) and Scott Schebler, OF (161 EP, +16 GAP, 81% Contact) as the top power bats right now.
MAIN SLATE GEMS:
Robinson Cano, 2B, SEA (166 EP, +26 GAP, 88% Contact) has been elite in his contact and is an excellent targets against TAM SP Alex Cobb, who has been giving up 92% contact in the strike zone and only 14% of contact over considered soft over his last 30 days.
Kyle Seager, 3B, SEA (169 EP, +87 GAP, 81% Contact) is in the same boat with Cano, except he is way behind in GAP, trailing only Miggy Cabrera in GAP for high contact players.
Don’t forget Nelson Cruz, OF (139 EP, +36 GAP, 81% Contact) who is miscast as another windmill low contact hitter – he fits nicely in between Cano and Seager, as well as probable #2 hitter Ben Gamel (127 EP, +32 GAP, 67% Contact) in a Seattle stack tonight.
Miguel Sano, 3B, MIN (203 EP, +36 GAP, 52% Contact) will be HR, walk or busto on a nightly basis, but has a nice matchup here against LAA SP Matt Shoemaker, who has been getting hit in the zone (88%), has been giving up hard contact (39%) over his last 30 days and has a 5.22 xFIP against RHH at home this season.
Tampa is sixth over the last 30 days in wRC+ against RHP on the road. With 200 PAs, they have a team ISO of .282 in split, with a 132 wRC+. Logon Morrison, 1B (217 EP, -16 GAP, 66% Contact) leads the way, with Colby Rasmus, OF (189 EP, -32 GAP, 61% Contact) on the list as well.
Another guy who typifies the Rays approach is back in the lineup, Bradley Miller, SS (105 EP, +61 GAP, 59% Contact) and Evan Longoria, 3B (118 EP, +15 GAP, 86% Contact) is in play as well.
John Jaso, 1B, PIT (151 EP, +42 GAP, 80% Contact) has snuck on the list for the Pirates, joining Andrew McCutchen, OF (162 EP, +54 GAP, 77% Contact), both of whom can make the night difficult for NYM SP Robert Gsellman.
On the Mets side, Jay Bruce, OF (173 EP, +69 GAP, 72% Contact), Michael Conforto, OF (196 EP, -12 GAP, 68% Contact), Rene Rivera, C (165 EP, +97 GAP, 74% Contact) and Lucas Duda, 1B (151 EP, -49 GAP, 78% Contact) look problematic against PIT SP Tyler Glasnow.
The Mets even put more guys on the list in Power/Contact with Asdurbal Cabrera, SS (133 EP, +39 GAP, 88% Contact), Curtis Granderson, OF (144 EP, -15 GAP, 75% Contact) and Neil Walker, 2B (129 EP, +0 GAP, 83% Contact).
Check the tables for more hitters from BOS, BAL, TEX, HOU and the rest of the slate!
Here is the full table of top expected power hitters, top expected power hitters with high contact rates, and another table for leaders in GAP, a.k.a. Most Owed Power as well as GAP w/High Contact. Feel free to ask about anybody specifically and enjoy!
There is a lot to find in there, so fire away with any questions – find me in the Premium Slack Chat (@jaywalker72). I hope you find all the power today – good luck! – JW