JAYWALKER’S POWER STATION for 6/24/17
The Power Report is back for this weirdo split slate Saturday, where FD is running three non-overlapping slates, at 1, 4 and 7 and DK is running a strange, leave out the Yankees split, with seven games at 2pm and seven at 7pm – sounds like crazy go nuts good times, right? I am going to treat things like an all day slate and just give you all the goodness at the same time, no early or late designations. Let us begin!
First a recap of the metrics we are looking at here:
Expected Power, which is a Baseball HQ/Baseball Info Solutions metric that looks at hard hit percentages, line drive and fly ball rates, and shows what that batters’ rating is on a 100 is average scale.
Actual Power, which is the metric that displays the production that players have actually produced.
GAP: The difference between the two. Positive gaps mean they have underproduced to their metrics, whereas negative indicates regression could soon be coming. It is to show how “real” their production has been and if they are poised for progression or regression.
The purpose of the exercise is to see who is legit, who has been lucky or relatively so, and who has been unlucky and perhaps due for bounce back. Or maybe it is a hitter that has been in a slump, but is showing signs of above average hard contact/power.
The red cells are simply to highlight that they are more volatile due to their low contact rate (Chris/Khris Davis, for examples).
I like to look at last 30 days’ samples to account for adjustments and latest trends. There is a table in the chart for top expected power hitters over the last 30 days with contact rates over 75% for that span, in case you wanted to see a list free from complete windmills like Joey Gallo, Chris/Khris Davis, Alex Avila and the like. Also, I have added a Top Contact table that has all the highest % contact plays with at least the average 100 expected power.
Finally, I added one last table to the report and that is a quick look at the expected power over just the last seven days, with a high contact (75% contact) and 10 at-bat filter applied.
Can’t stress enough to go through the tables and get used to what you are seeing there in addition to the specific write-ups I do in this report – folks are getting an edge with the data, for sure.
These help us identify who might be relatively off the radar and can be exploited for our success in tournaments tonight!
ALL DAY GOODNESS:
If you are playing the three-game FD Early Only slate, then you will see folks lining up to play the Bronx Bombers against Austin Bibens-Dirkx in Yankee Stadium with the wind blowing out. Also, Yankees RHP Luis Cessa has a good K rate (23.5%) but also has given up some longball this season (2.25 HR/9 IP) Top bats here:
Carlos Gomez, OF, TEX (302 EP, -85 EP, 59% Contact)
Mike Napoli, 1B, TEX (224 EP, +21 GAP, 53% Contact)
Aaron Judge, OF, NYY (205 EP, -35 GAP, 61% Contact)
Joey Gallo, 1B/3B, TEX (204 EP, +4 GAP, 57% Contact)
Chris Carter, 1B, NYY (165 EP, +41 GAP, 59% Contact)
Robinson Chirinos, C, TEX (157 EP, -28 GAP, 72% Contact)
Matt Holliday, 1B/OF, NYY (156 EP, -5 GAP, 77% Contact)
Rougned Odor, 2B, TEX (121 EP, -5 GAP, 70% Contact) 120 EP, +37 GAP, 83% Contact
Nomar Mazara, OF, TEX (120 EP, +22 GAP, 74% Contact) – 156 EP, +55 GAP, 85% Contact over last seven
Adrian Beltre, 3B, TEX (114 EP, +20 GAP, 88% Contact) – 157 EP, +62 GAP, 93% Contact over last seven
That is a lot of bats – and you can get a different stack if you are creative with the combinations here.
Wind blowing out and a hot day in the Nation’s Capital, where Homer Bailey comes back for the Reds and Joe Ross takes the hill for the home Nationals. Top bats here:
Scooter Gennett, 2B, CIN (167 EP, -25 GAP, 75% Contact)
Scott Schebler, OF, CIN (163 EP, +4 GAP, 76% Contact) – 64% Contact over last seven days
Joey Votto, 1B, CIN (157 EP, +20 GAP, 87% Contact) – 167 EP, +59 GAP, 92% Contact over last seven days
Adam Lind, 1B, WAS (148 EP, +23 GAP, 81% Contact) – 64% Contact over last seven days
Anthony Rendon, 3B, WAS (141 EP, +70 GAP, 88% Contact)
Brian Goodwin, OF, WAS (134 EP, -67 GAP, 73% Contact) – Beware some regression here, but if he is batting second again, you may wait another day before fading.
The Cubs are in Miami and MIA LHP Justin Nicolino has given up the most contact (88%) of any pitcher today and over two home runs per 9 IP this season. Anthony Rizzo, 1B, CHC (135 EP, -26 GAP, 89% Contact) has been even better last seven days, scoring a (190 EP, +38 GAP, 92% Contact) rate and has a L-L matchup which, along with the Miami venue, makes Rizzo an interesting one-off Cub target here.
On the other side, Marcell Ozuna, OF, MIA (121 EP, -38 GAP, 78% Contact) has a great matchup here, even against a much tougher LHP Jon Lester, and carries a (200 EP, +41 GAP, 84% Contact) over his last seven days.
Loved Tampa yesterday, as they have been great at home against RHP this season, and that should continue against BAL RHP Dylan Bundy. Logan Morrison, 1B (217EP, -9 GAP, 73% Contact) will be in my FantasyDraft lineup, as he has been 75% of the time, I would guess this season. His consistency in power has been tremendous and is a terrific one-off, even if more popular because of Tampa’s 15 run outburst last night.
Cleveland takes on MIN RHP Kyle Gibson, who is not the treasure chest of targeted goodness we think his lack of dominance would imply. Still, Lonnie Chisenhall, OF (218 EP, +47 GAP, 87% Contact) has been 256 EP, +132 GAP and 88% Contact over his last seven and is a great one-off play here as well.
Matt Carpenter, 1B, STL (175 EP, +54 GAP, 77% Contact) takes his usual seat at the table in the back of the Power Report restaurant, in a great spot against Gerrit Cole at home and the wind blowing slightly out to RF today.
With LAA RHP JC Ramirez struggling against LHH, Andrew Benintendi, OF, BOS (176 EP, +78 GAP, 83% Contact) is a core play for me today.
Arizona let down yesterday against Mark Leiter, but that will not stop folks from running there again against PHI RHP Ben Lively, who has been pitching to a lot of contact. Paul Goldschmidt, 1B (182 EP, +7 GAP, 78% Contact) at home is a great play, but hugely expensive. Chris Owings, SS (134 EP, +15 GAP, 81% Contact) and Chris Herrmann, C/OF (152 EP, +90 GAP, 65% Contact) could be less expensive access to this game.
Houston has done great things against SEA, and Brian McCann, C (159 EP, +25, 80% Contact, 45% FB rate) leads the way against high contact RHP Sam Gaviglio. Carlos Beltran, OF (161 EP, +9 GAP, 79% Contact) has been highly underrated on this team and George Springer, OF has a (269 EP, +60 GAP, 79% Contact) over his last seven days. Finally, Jose Altuve, 2B (100 EP, -17 GAP, 91% Contact) has been making power strides again. Over his last seven days, Altuve is rocking a (249 EP, +83 GAP, 91% Contact) line. Time to consider paying up for Altuuuuuve.
Tons and tons of bats to tackle today! Check the tables for Coors Field batters, GAP leaders, CONTACT leaders and more hitters/one-offs from the rest of the slate tonight!
Here is the full table of top expected power hitters, top expected power hitters with high contact rates, and another table for leaders in GAP, a.k.a. Most Owed Power as well as GAP w/High Contact. The new charts on Top Contact and Last Seven Days are in there as well. There is a lot to find in there, so fire away with any questions – find me in the Premium Slack Chat (@jaywalker72). I hope you find all the power today – good luck! – JW