JAYWALKER’S POWER STATION for 6/23/17

The Power Report is back for this full slate Friday, with every single one of our bats in play today – let us go get them!

First a recap of the metrics we are looking at here:

Expected Power, which is a Baseball HQ/Baseball Info Solutions metric that looks at hard hit percentages, line drive and fly ball rates, and shows what that batters’ rating is on a 100 is average scale.

Actual Power, which is the metric that displays the production that players have actually produced.

GAP: The difference between the two. Positive gaps mean they have underproduced to their metrics, whereas negative indicates regression could soon be coming. It is to show how “real” their production has been and if they are poised for progression or regression.

The purpose of the exercise is to see who is legit, who has been lucky or relatively so, and who has been unlucky and perhaps due for bounce back. Or maybe it is a hitter that has been in a slump, but is showing signs of above average hard contact/power.

The red cells are simply to highlight that they are more volatile due to their low contact rate (Chris/Khris Davis, for examples).

I like to look at last 30 days’ samples to account for adjustments and latest trends. There is a table in the chart for top expected power hitters over the last 30 days with contact rates over 75% for that span, in case you wanted to see a list free from complete windmills like Joey Gallo, Chris/Khris Davis, Alex Avila and the like. Also, I have added a Top Contact table that has all the highest % contact plays with at least the average 100 expected power.

Finally, I added one last table to the report and that is a quick look at the expected power over just the last seven days, with a high contact (75% contact) and 10 at-bat filter applied.

Can’t stress enough to go through the tables and get used to what you are seeing there in addition to the specific write-ups I do in this report – folks are getting an edge with the data, for sure.

These help us identify who might be relatively off the radar and can be exploited for our success in tournaments tonight!

MAIN SLATE GEMS:

Washington Nationals get fresh meat thrown to them in the muggy home park tonight in the form of CIN RHP Luis Castillo. The Nats have not been as excellent as they were in April at home versus RHP. In fact, they are 21st over the last 30 days in split, with an average 101 wRC+ but a healthy .201 ISO. So here are the top bats for the Nationals in a positive spot today:

Anthony Rendon, 3B (152 EP, -28 GAP, 89% Contact)

Adam Lind, 1B (148 EP, +23 GAP, 82% Contact)

Brian Goodwin, OF (115 EP, -55 GAP, 71% Contact)

Ryan Zimmerman, 1B (112 EP, -9 GAP, 82% Contact)

You may see that and wonder where Daniel Murphy, 2B and Bryce Harper, OF are, but neither have been showing anything resembling above average hard contact/expected power, which is likely why we see the Nationals only about average in wRC+. Murphy carries a strong 91% Contact rate, while Harper is at 74% and has a 13% Walk rate.

The Cleveland Indians, on the other hand, could not be more hot, and they return home, where they are, as a whole, better in the splits. They face MIN LHP Adelberto Mejia, who has good stuff but gives up 1.8 HR/9 IP for the last 30 days. Like yesterday, here are the Indians bats likely to face Mejia tonight:

Austin Jackson, OF (193 EP, +62 GAP, 77% Contact) – The man has been a one man inferno and is getting stronger, with a L7 scan of: (224 EP, +73 GAP, 80% Contact, 53% FB rate). Even though it is tempting to do a 4-man stack of Indians and fill out your infield, consider Jackson as an alternate.

Edwin Encarnacion, 1B (168 EP, +5 GAP, 85% Contact) – Admit it, you did not know E5 was making this kind of contact. 85% is not only on our TOP CONTACT table, it is in the top half. And easy choice right now over Carlos Santana, who is not nearly as locked in as Edwin.

Jason Kipnis, 2B (132 EP, +1 GAP, 80% Contact) –  In case you did, in fact, want to fill out the infield with Indians.

Jose Ramirez, 2B/3B (129 EP, -33 GAP, 89% Contact) – The only main Indian with negative GAP, Ramirez still a solid play due to super high contact rate and speed, where his 118 raw speed rating and 125 steal op rating means he has the opportunity and ability to get the steal.

Francisco Lindor, SS (112 EP, +11 GAP, 93% Contact) – Also a 43% fly ball rate. Shortstop play has been bad this season in DFS, and Lindor, thanks to that elite contact rate, above average power and FB rate, is the best cash game shortstop going right now.

Carlos Santana, 1B (105 EP, +18 GAP, 83% Contact) – This is why you cannot roster any SPs against CLE – look at the consistency of the contact rates on this team. Santana hits too many groundballs (46% over his last seven days), but does make excellent overall contact and does it with average to slightly above average hard contact.

I have tried to take on the Rays because of their high K tendencies, but have been burned because they are too tough to keep down for even five innings. At home, vs. RHP, over the last 30 days, they do indeed have a juicy 25.2% K rate, but also a 125 wRC+, .222 ISO and .353 wOBA in split as well. Even though he has pitched well in his last start and out of the pen recently, BAL RHP Ubaldo Jimenez has, for the season, given up 2 HR.9 IP and a 4.90 SIERA. This season, against LHH, Jimenez has given up 10 HR in 123 AB, for a .415 wOBA. Logan Morrison, 1B (202 EP, -11 GAP, 72% Contact) and Colby Rasmus, OF (QUEST) (207 EP, -2 GAP, 67% Contact) are top targets. Corey Dickerson, OF has a last seven day scan of (127 EP, +65 GAP, 78% Contact) while dropping his GB rate below 40% (39).

The Arizona Diamondbacks are back at home, replacing Coors Field as an ownership lightning rod, especially against PHI RHP Mark Leiter, who ranks as one of the worst statistical pitching options on the night. Arizona throws out RHP Patrick Corbin, who has been ok, but has had longball issues of his own, giving up 2.18 per nine innings over his last 30 days. So here are the top bats on both sides, for AZ and PHI:

Daniel Nava, OF (159 EP, +94 GAP, 71% Contact)

Aaron Altherr, OF (131 EP, +26 GAP, 70% Contact) – Also, 47% FB rate.

Tommy Joseph, 1B (111 EP, +17 GAP, 76% Contact)

Freddie Galvis, SS (104 EP, +5 GAP, 80% Contact)

Odubel Herrera, OF (103 EP, -40 GAP, 77% Contact)

Joseph and Nava have the most 7-day GAP on that PHI list

Paul Goldschmidt, 1B (192 EP, +10 GAP, 77% Contact) – Oh, you have heard of him?

Chris Herrmann, C/OF (192 EP, +100 GAP, 67% Contact)   – Get to the choppah!

Chris Owings, SS (143 EP, +17 GAP, 79% Contact) – nice SS option

Daniel Descalso, 2B/OF (130 EP, +35 GAP, 71% Contact) – Yes, he still has above average expected power and GAP, however, you must be aware that he raised his GB rate to 50% and has lowered his contact rate overall, both harbingers of slump. Still, he is a low cost MI option, depending on where he is batting in the lineup.

You may be asking, JAKE LAMB?!! WHERE IS JAKE LAMB? When he is going good, he is locked into 45-50% FB rate with hard contact. When he is in a down phase, as he is right now, his GB rate soars, as it has over the last seven days (47%, 18% FB rate) and 30 days, too (43%/34% GB/FB) leading to his current (81 EP, -68 GAP) status.

Here are some one-offs:

Andrew Benintendi, OF, BOS {173 EP, +83 GAP, 84% Contact) – Going against LAA Alex Meyer, who definitely does worse against LHH, I predict Benintendi honors Big Papi with a high EP HR of his own, as Ortiz dominated my charts for his last three seasons. He and Mookie Betts, OF (145 EP, +33 GAP, 90% Contact) make a nice two-man stack, especially if batting next to each other in the lineup.

Matt Carpenter, 1B, STL (185 EP, +64 GAP, 77% Contact) Against Jamison Taillon, in Busch Stadium, Carp is an excellent one-off considering his own hard contact and Taillon’s high contact pitching approach.

Justin Turner, 3B, LAD (189 EP, +48 GAP, 88% Contact) Dodgers are much better against LHP at home and Turner, batting third most likely, will have a few chances against high contact COL LHP Kyle Freeland.

Kiki Hernandez, 2B/SS/OF, LAD (184 EP, +10 GAP, 68% Contact) – Kiki delivered last night against LHP Steven Matz and now has an easy SP to square up for a very low price tag.

Robinson Cano, 2B, SEA (124 EP, 48 GAP, 88% Contact) – Even after a 2-HR game, there is still GAP to close against HOU RHP Joe Musgrove.

Kyle Seager, 3B, SEA (151 EP, +42 GAP, 83% Contact) – Musgrove is an alright RHP, but Seager and Cano make it difficult here against RHP at home.

Brian McCann, C, HOU (166 EP, +27 GAP, 82% Contact) – While I would like to believe King Felix Hernandez is not completely finished, he has sure looked like against the Astros the past two seasons, and the Astros are tough in every split.

Jake Marisnick, OF, HOU (197 EP, -1 GAP, 66% Contact) – Even before he entered yesterday’s game for the HBP ailing George Springer, Marisnick has launched onto this chart. If he is in again for Springer, batter up against Felix.

In fact, here are the stats for Springer (154 EP, -39 GAP, 77% Contact) and Carlos Beltran, OF (156 EP, +19 GAP, 78% Contact) and Yulieski Gurriel, 1B/3B (130 EP, +12 GAP, 89% Contact).

Tons and tons of bats to tackle today! Check the tables for Coors Field batters, GAP leaders, CONTACT leaders and more hitters/one-offs from the rest of the slate tonight!

Here is the full table of top expected power hitters, top expected power hitters with high contact rates, and another table for leaders in GAP, a.k.a. Most Owed Power as well as GAP w/High Contact. The new charts on Top Contact and Last Seven Days are in there as well. There is a lot to find in there, so fire away with any questions – find me in the Premium Slack Chat (@jaywalker72). I hope you find all the power today – good luck! – JW

 

 

POWER REPORT TABLE CLICK HERE 062317