JAYWALKER’S POWER STATION for 6/22/17
The Power Report is back for this split slate Thursday, with not one, but two sweet spot six-game slates in play. The first starts at 1:05 Eastern and the main slate at 7:05 Eastern. Let us begin!
First a recap of the metrics we are looking at here:
Expected Power, which is a Baseball HQ/Baseball Info Solutions metric that looks at hard hit percentages, line drive and fly ball rates, and shows what that batters’ rating is on a 100 is average scale.
Actual Power, which is the metric that displays the production that players have actually produced.
GAP: The difference between the two. Positive gaps mean they have underproduced to their metrics, whereas negative indicates regression could soon be coming. It is to show how “real” their production has been and if they are poised for progression or regression.
The purpose of the exercise is to see who is legit, who has been lucky or relatively so, and who has been unlucky and perhaps due for bounce back. Or maybe it is a hitter that has been in a slump, but is showing signs of above average hard contact/power.
The red cells are simply to highlight that they are more volatile due to their low contact rate (Chris/Khris Davis, for examples).
I like to look at last 30 days’ samples to account for adjustments and latest trends. There is a table in the chart for top expected power hitters over the last 30 days with contact rates over 75% for that span, in case you wanted to see a list free from complete windmills like Joey Gallo, Chris/Khris Davis, Alex Avila and the like. Also, I have added a Top Contact table that has all the highest % contact plays with at least the average 100 expected power.
Finally, I added one last table to the report and that is a quick look at the expected power over just the last seven days, with a high contact (75% contact) and 10 at-bat filter applied.
Can’t stress enough to go through the tables and get used to what you are seeing there in addition to the specific write-ups I do in this report – folks are getting an edge with the data, for sure.
These help us identify who might be relatively off the radar and can be exploited for our success in tournaments tonight!
EARLY SLATE NUGGETS:
Matt Carpenter, 1B, STL (175 EP, +52 GAP, 78% Contact) has been in here so often we should seriously consider renaming this The Carpenter Report, but it does not mean he is here ceremoniously. He is slowly working off his GAP, which was over 100 last week. His last seven days look like this: (207 EP, +5 GAP, 79% Contact). It is excellent and in a hitter’s park like Philly, even against a solid SP like Aaron Nola, Carpenter is an excellent play.
There are a number of Redbirds in GAP lists here, with Carpenter leading the way, followed by Yadier Molina, C (130 EP, +33 GAP, 85% Contact) and Jedd Gyorko, 3B (107 EP, +20 GAP, 77% Contact). On other charts we see Stephen Piscotty, OF (126 EP, +6 GAP, 81% Contact) on the TOP CONTACT list and Jose Martinez, 1B/OF (L7: 246 EP, +28 GAP, 73% Contact), Tommy Pham, OF (239 EP, -61 GAP, 68% Contact) joining PIscotty, Carpenter and Molina on the LAST SEVEN chart.
It is a hot day in Denver, too, which bodes poorly for Zack Godley and Antonio Senzatela, today’s hurlers in that game. Top Bats:
Paul Goldschmidt, 1B (186 EP, +6 GAP, 79% Contact)
Chris Herrmann, C/OF (215 EP, +112 GAP, 68% Contact)
Nolan Arenado, 3B (167 EP, +19 GAP, 81% Contact)
Daniel Descalso, 2B/OF (139 EP, +24 GAP, 71% Contact)
Trevor Story, SS (129 EP, +18 GAP, 70% Contact)
Chris Owings, SS (125 EP, +13 GAP, 80% Contact)
Charlie Blackmon, OF (120 EP, -47 GAP, 72% Contact)
Gregor Blanco, OF (110 EP, -35 GAP, 89% Contact)
Mark Reynolds, 1B (101 EP, -61 GAP, 65% Contact)
Another hot spot, Texas, sees Kendrys Morales, 1B (162 EP, -14 GAP, 78% Contact) in the middle of a hot spot, Justin Smoak, 1B (153 EP, -20 GAP, 81% Contact) and Josh Donaldson, 3B (141 EP, +1 GAP, 80% Contact) also making the Expected Power lists.
On the other side, Texas has three power bats over the last seven days on the list: Joey Gallo, 3B/OF (390 EP, +124 GAP, 60% Contact), Carlos Gomez, OF (292 EP, -71 GAP, 58% Contact) and Mike Napoli, 1B (269 EP, +66 GAP, 58% Contact) heading into this home matchup with Jays RHP Marcus Stroman.
Finally, in Minnesota, it is looking rainy and colder than the rest of the hot weather slate, but if you are so inclined to do so, Miguel Sano, 3B (180 EP, -18 GAP, 64% Contact) and Brian Dozier, 2B (143 EP, +12 GAP, 78% Contact) are popular plays here.
Andrew McCutchen, OF, PIT (152 EP, -10 GAP, 81% Contact) has finally used up his GAP (Love it when it works that way!) and is just left with well above average metrics in a hitter’s park. Too bad his “smart” manager keeps him sixth in order to get less production from a highly productive bat because of some aberrant results from April.
One more warm weather game is in Oakland, and the Astros, who have been dangerous in all splits this season, have Brian McCann, C (166 EP, +27 GAP, 82% Contact), Carlos Beltran, OF (146 EP, +2 GAP, 79% Contact) and, yes, even George Springer, OF (152 EP, -39 GAP, 76% Contact) on the high power/high contact tables.
MAIN SLATE GEMS:
The Indians will be popular with the surging Cleveland team still in Baltimore to go after the Orioles. LHP Wade Miley is on the hill in Camden Yards for the Orioles and has not been able to miss many bats and has walked 11% over the last 30 days. He has the worst first strike rate of any pitcher on the slate over the past 30 days, with a 50% mark. When he is in the zone, it is getting hit 95% of the time. So, batter up for Cleveland. Who are the top bats, according to their projected lineup?
Lonnie Chisenhall, OF (224 EP, +34 GAP, 82% Contact, 59% FB rate) – also has a 286 EP, +93 GAP, 86% Contact rate and 63% FB rate over last seven. Bonkers, even if it is L-L – so keep an eye on if he is in the lineup.
Edwin Encarnacion, 1B (179 EP, -2 GAP, 82% Contact)
Austin Jackson, OF (178 EP, +49 GAP, 76% Contact) – 177 EP, +36 GAP and 77% Contact rate over last seven.
Jason Kipnis, 2B (134 EP, -5 GAP, 80% Contact)
Jose Ramirez, 2B/3B (131 EP, -33 GAP, 88% Contact)
Francisco Lindor, SS (115 EP, +5 GAP, 92% Contact) – Wrestled the TOP CONTACT title today from KC’s Whit Merrifield. Did so by a L7 scan of: 146 EP, +36 GAP, 97% CONTACT. Yowza.
That is a bunch of high contact, high power bats – no wonder they are rolling right now and I say stack them up today.
The Dodgers, since May 1st against LHP at home (189 PA), are #2 in wRC+ with 137. Top Bats on the Dodgers over the last 30 days:
Justin Turner, 3B (186 EP, +65 GAP, 89% Contact)
Cody Bellinger, 1B/OF (180 EP, -90 GAP, 65% Contact)
Kiki Hernandez, SS/OF (172 EP, +20 GAP, 69% Contact)
Corey Seager, SS (142 EP, +4 GAP, 72% Contact)
Yasmani Grandal, C (124 EP, +10 GAP, 65% Contact)
Mets LHP Steven Matz has given up second highest contact and in zone contact on the slate, behind only Matt Cain.
Speaking of Cain, he is in Atlanta, away from the security blanket that is San Francisco. Matt Adams, 1B (151 EP, -40 GAP, 79% Contact) is a strong play against Cain, but he and Daniel Santana, OF (202 EP, +26 GAP, 76% Contact) are above average power bats over the last 30 days, and Santana is not a regular player.
The Yankees have disappointed in their first two home game against the Angels and now gets Professional Pitcher Jesse Chavez in Yankee Stadium. I say that the Bronx Bombers are still good to go for another round at the Angels, as you cannot ignore the 156 wRC+ record over the last 372 PAs at home vs. RHP.
Aaron Judge, OF (201 EP, -19 GAP, 63% Contact)
Chris Carter, 1B (167 EP, +11 GAP, 62% Contact)
Matt Holliday, 1B/OF (155 EP, -11 GAP, 79% Contact)
Aaron Hicks, OF (145 EP, +7 GAP, 81% Contact)
Austin Romine, C (126 EP, +80 GAP, 68% Contact)
Gary Sanchez, C (117 EP, -65 GAP, 72% Contact)
Starlin Castro, 2B (108 EP, +13 GAP, 78% Contact)
Justin Bour, 1B, MIA (151 EP, -40 GAP, 80% Contact)
Brandon Belt, 1B, SFG (163 EP, +66 GAP, 77% Contact)
Joe Panik, 2B, SFG (152 EP, +32 GAP, 87% Contact)
Ian Kinsler, 2B, DET (134 EP, +30 GAP, 90% Contact)
Much to tackle today! Check the tables for Coors Field batters, GAP leaders, CONTACT leaders and more hitters/one-offs from the rest of the slate tonight!
Here is the full table of top expected power hitters, top expected power hitters with high contact rates, and another table for leaders in GAP, a.k.a. Most Owed Power as well as GAP w/High Contact. The new charts on Top Contact and Last Seven Days are in there as well. There is a lot to find in there, so fire away with any questions – find me in the Premium Slack Chat (@jaywalker72). I hope you find all the power today – good luck! – JW