JAYWALKER’S POWER STATION for 6/2/17
The Power Report is back for this ready for the weekend, 14 game megaslate!
First a recap of the metrics we are looking at here:
Expected Power, which is a Baseball HQ/Baseball Info Solutions metric that looks at hard hit percentages, line drive and fly ball rates, and shows what that batters’ rating is on a 100 is average scale.
Actual Power, which is the metric that displays the production that players have actually produced.
GAP: The difference between the two. Positive gaps mean they have underproduced to their metrics, whereas negative indicates regression could soon be coming. It is to show how “real” their production has been and if they are poised for progression or regression.
The purpose of the exercise is to see who is legit, who has been lucky or relatively so, and who has been unlucky and perhaps due for bounce back. Or maybe it is a hitter that has been in a slump, but is showing signs of above average hard contact/power.
The red cells are simply to highlight that they are more volatile due to their low contact rate (Chris/Khris Davis, for examples).
I like to look at last 30 days’ samples to account for adjustments and latest trends. I added a table in the chart for top expected power hitters over the last 30 days with contact rates over 75% for that span, in case you wanted to see a list free from complete windmills like Joey Gallo, Chris/Khris Davis, Alex Avila and the like.
These help us identify who might be relatively off the radar and can be exploited for our success in tournaments tonight!
MAIN SLATE GEMS:
Evan Longoria, 3B, TAM (123 EP, +16 GAP, 86% Contact) Longoria will lead the power brigade against SEA SP Christian Bergman, who has seen his soft contact rate slip to less than 14% over his last 350 pitches and yet continues to pound the strike zone and pitch to contact. The Rays are the top team over the last 30 days in wRC+ against RHP on the road (336 PAs, 153 wRC+, .300 ISO). Why Longoria? Because Bergman has given up a .424 wOBA against RHH for his career (464 BF) with a 39% hard contact and those numbers bump up when considering Bergman as a starter.
Other RHH bats include: Daniel Robertson, SS/3B (143 EP, +35 GAP), Steven Souza, OF (131 EP, -48 GAP), Derek Norris, C (95 EP, -17 GAP).
Stephen Strasberg is in an excellent spot tonight in Oakland, a team that has lethal power but also prone to the whiff. Where does Stras struggle, if you can call it that? RHH power, giving up 39% hard contact and over a 4.40 xFIP against RHH this season. The first Oakland RHH bat that leaps to mind is Khris Davis, OF (213 EP, +79 GAP). If you want a higher contact bat, then maybe Ryon Healy, 1B/3B (182 EP, +50 GAP, 73% contact). Finally, if you are interested in a low owned MI bat, then check to make sure Chad Pinder, SS/2B (191 EP, -126 GAP, 69% Contact) is in the lineup and perhaps plug him in there.
Pitching at home has been a problem for MIA SP Jose Urena, and it has been even worse against RHH, where Urena has faced 76 RHH batters this season at home and seen 30 reach base, including three home runs for a .435 wOBA. Paul Goldschmidt, 1B (231 EP, +65 GAP, 78% Contact) will not be near as chalky as he was last night, when the whole team bowed down to Jeff Locke, but people will remember he let them down.
Our top GAP guy with more than 75% contact rate (a new table added today to the chart) is Miguel Cabrera, 1B (170 EP, +88 GAP, 76% Contact) who gets brewed regularly by his home park. His opponent tonight is LHP Derek Hollard, who has a 5.18 xFIP and 40+% hard contact rate against RHH on the road.
Joey Votto, 1B (170 EP, +21 GAP, 85% Contact) will be a popular cash game play against RHP Mike Foltynewicz, who gives up .379 wOBA, 1.7 HR/9 IP and a 5.23 xFIP against LHH and has to be in the Great American Ballpark tonight. Also a solid play, Scott Schebler, OF (158 EP, +15 GAP, 82% Contact).
On the other side, Bronson Arroyo throws for the Reds and he has just been flat out bad, including a brutal 41.5% hard contact rate over his last 441 pitches, a span in which he has given up 82.5% contact overall and 89.8% contact in the strike zone. Freddie Freeman has to be in agony that he is missing this matchup, but Matt Adams, 1B (120 EP, -40 GAP), Matt Kemp, OF (99 EP, -14 GAP, 78% Contact) and Ender Inciarte, OF (76 EP, +49 GAP, 85% Contact, 100 EP over last seven days) would be the best calls here, though not overly impressive overall.
MIN LHH should be in play again tonight as LAA SP JC Ramirez has been coached to change his pitch mix and the results have been disastrous, giving up 95.7% contact with pitches in the strike zone over the past 30 days and seeing 34 batters faced over that same span against LHH at home, a 2.1 HR/9 IP rate and 5.63 xFIP and 3.3% soft contact rate. MIN bats on the table include:
Miguel Sano, 3B (208 EP, +11 GAP)
Brian Dozier, 2B (155 EP, +14 GAP)
Eddie Rosario, OF (148 EP, +14 GAP, 79% Contact)
Jason Castro, C (147 EP, +9 GAP)
Max Kepler, OF (110 EP, +8 GAP, 81% Contact)
There are so many games and team – if you have a question, check the tables to see if your guy is there or @jaywalker72 in MLB chat.
One final team to look at and it’s the Miami Marlins, who get LHP Patrick Corbin in Marlins Park and he has been awful against RHH this season – 78 batters faced, 34 H/BB, five HR and a .480 wOBA. RHH for the Marlins are (with wRC+ for home vs. LHP):
JT Realmuto, C (117 EP, +34 GAP, 76% Contact, 214 wRC+)
Marcel Ozuna, OF (87 EP, -43 GAP, 81% Contact, 171 wRC+)
Giancarlo Stanton, OF (77 EP, -91 GAP, 78% Contact, 239 wRC+)
Here is the full table of top expected power hitters, top expected power hitters with high contact rates, and another table for leaders in GAP, a.k.a. Most Owed Power as well as GAP w/High Contact. Feel free to ask about anybody specifically and enjoy!
There is a lot to find in there, so fire away with any questions – find me in the Premium Slack Chat (@jaywalker72). I hope you find all the power today – good luck! – JW