JAYWALKER’S POWER STATION for 6/20/17
The Power Report is back for this full-on, loosen your belt, 15-game extravaganza. You might be interested in paying up for pitching today, so let us see where we can find some hitting.
First a recap of the metrics we are looking at here:
Expected Power, which is a Baseball HQ/Baseball Info Solutions metric that looks at hard hit percentages, line drive and fly ball rates, and shows what that batters’ rating is on a 100 is average scale.
Actual Power, which is the metric that displays the production that players have actually produced.
GAP: The difference between the two. Positive gaps mean they have underproduced to their metrics, whereas negative indicates regression could soon be coming. It is to show how “real” their production has been and if they are poised for progression or regression.
The purpose of the exercise is to see who is legit, who has been lucky or relatively so, and who has been unlucky and perhaps due for bounce back. Or maybe it is a hitter that has been in a slump, but is showing signs of above average hard contact/power.
The red cells are simply to highlight that they are more volatile due to their low contact rate (Chris/Khris Davis, for examples).
I like to look at last 30 days’ samples to account for adjustments and latest trends. There is a table in the chart for top expected power hitters over the last 30 days with contact rates over 75% for that span, in case you wanted to see a list free from complete windmills like Joey Gallo, Chris/Khris Davis, Alex Avila and the like. Also, I have added a Top Contact table that has all the highest % contact plays with at least the average 100 expected power.
Finally, I added one last table to the report and that is a quick look at the expected power over just the last seven days, with a high contact (75% contact) and 10 at-bat filter applied.
Can’t stress enough to go through the tables and get used to what you are seeing there in addition to the specific write-ups I do in this report – folks are getting an edge with the data, for sure.
These help us identify who might be relatively off the radar and can be exploited for our success in tournaments tonight!
I am not sure if you noticed, but the Yankees are good this season. I mean that sarcastically. Well, not that the Yankees are good, they are, ranking first in wRC+ against RHP at home over the last 30 days (307 PA) with a staggering 163 wRC+, .291 ISO and .416 wOBA. Pretty good. No, I mean sarcastically in that you may not have noticed. You have, I am sure, if you have been playing this season. Good times. It breaks my heart that Aaron Hicks, who has had strong power metrics all season, is missing games with a lingering sore Achilles. Without him, here are the top Yankees in expected power coming into this game against Angels RHP/sacrificial lamb, Parker Bridwell:
Aaron Judge, OF (200 EP, -41 GAP, 61% Contact) – Would be even more sarcastic to wonder if you have noticed this guy was good at the power.
Chris Carter, 1B (171 EP, +11 GAP, 61% Contact) – Chris Carter is back for HARD CONTACT 7: Return From the 9-Slot. The biggest lineup beneficiary from Hicks’ absence.
Matt Holliday, 1B/OF (160 EP, +14 GAP, 72% Contact) – 50% FB rate and batting right in the middle of the offensive soup.
Gary Sanchez, C (119 EP, -61 GAP, 73% Contact) – Has overproduced, but provides ridiculous offensive upside at catcher. Pricy, sure, but valuable part of a stack.
Starlin Castro, 2B (118 EP, +24 GAP, 79% Contact) – A Yankee with GAP! A miracle! At second base no less! And batting fifth! More exclamation points!!!
Brett Gardner, OF (97 EP, -22 GAP, 77% Contact) – Included due to his leadoff role – just because he is below average in EP does not mean I would not stack him, but as a one-off, he is sub-prime.
The St. Louis Cardinals have been poor on the road against RHP, especially over the last 30 days (416 PA) where they posted a 73 wRC+ and a .289 wOBA. However, that does not stop me from playing Matt Carpenter, 1B (202 EP, +70 GAP, 79% Contact) in his leadoff role, at the second-best offensive park this season (PHI) against RHP Jeremy Hellickson. If you wanted to stack the top line on the Cardinals, with Dexter Fowler, OF (139 EP, +9 GAP, 80% Contact), Stephen Piscotty, OF (124 EP, +23 GAP, 82% Contact) and Jedd Gyorko, 3B (101 EP, +41 GAP, 76% Contact) I can see it here – those are a lot of high contact bats with solid metrics in a good park against a below average RHP. I wrote, at length, about Fowler in yesterday’s article about how he is a good example of watching the metrics on this chart, so check it out for the best context.
Lonnie Chisenhall, OF (231 EP, +11 GAP, 80% Contact) batted fifth yesterday and is in the middle of a classic Chisenhall power run. The game has an 11-run total and Chris Tillman has struggled this season, though he has always been better at Camden Yards. Still, it is a great matchup for Chisenhall, as long as he continues to bat in the middle of the order.
The Reds are facing Alex Cobb, who is among the leaders on the slate in giving up hard contact. Scott Schebler, OF (195 EP, +19 GAP, 78% Contact) continued his great run this season, though the Reds see fit to let him languish in the six-slot. Joey Votto, 1B (162 EP, +25 GAP, 88% Contact) joins Schebs as a play, as his price is down to $4,400 on DK and Schebs comes in at $3,600. In the same game, Derek Norris, C (165 EP, +51 GAP, 75% Contact) comes in against a LHP (Amir Garrett) and having recently been making much better contact rates.
Toronto has three bats on the Expected Power/High Contact table and are in a hot-temp game in Texas with another 11-run total. Justin Smoak, 1B (157EP, -11 GAP, 82% Contact) has begun to slip back into some old ground ball habits, but remains alright here in this matchup against Nick Martinez. Josh Donaldson, 3B (152 EP, -5 GAP, 79% Contact) has seen his large negative GAP close and Kendrys Morales, 1B (145 EP, -25 GAP, 77% Contact) makes his return to the tables as well.
For the Rangers, Mike Napoli, 1B (187 EP, -2 GAP, 59% Contact) has returned from injury and posted a quick 286 EP, +6 GAP, 67% Contact rate over the last seven days. Also over the last seven, Carlos Gomez, OF has put up a 249 EP, -39 GAP, +67% Contact rate and while both are low contact plays with power upside, they are both very affordable on DK, considering the high total, with Gomez at $3.9K and Napoli at $3.4K.
Vegas sees the Mets as patsies tonight in LA, where Brandon McCarthy is going to be a very popular play. However, there are plenty of Mets bats that can make trouble for the Dodger RHP. Jay Bruce, 1B/OF (161 EP, -19 GAP, 75% Contact) and Lucas Duda, 1B (166 EP, -27 GAP, 74% Contact) both should be in the middle of the lineup and continue to consistently produce solid power metrics. Wilmer Flores, 2B/3B (117 EP, +22 GAP, 84% Contact) makes solid contact in the middle of the projected lineup and either one of Curtis Granderson, OF (165 EP, +22 GAP, 75% Contact) or Michael Conforto, OF (130 EP, +2 GAP, 68% Contact) could be in play at the top of the order.
Danny Santana, OF, ATL (202 EP, +25 GAP, 76% Contact) came off the bench last night and plowed a HR, surprising few who read this report daily. Santana has been lodged in the top of the EP/HC chart for a couple of weeks now, since he reached the min 40 AB. If he gets the start against LHP Matt Moore, he is a solid one-off at $3,300 on DK, depending on lineup slot.
Much to tackle today! Check the tables for Coors Field batters, GAP leaders, CONTACT leaders and more hitters/one-offs from the rest of the slate tonight!
Here is the full table of top expected power hitters, top expected power hitters with high contact rates, and another table for leaders in GAP, a.k.a. Most Owed Power as well as GAP w/High Contact. The new charts on Top Contact and Last Seven Days are in there as well. There is a lot to find in there, so fire away with any questions – find me in the Premium Slack Chat (@jaywalker72). I hope you find all the power today – good luck! – JW