JAYWALKER’S POWER STATION for 6/19/17
The Power Report is back for this welcome to the new week Monday 11-game slate. You might be interested in paying up for pitching today, so let us see where we can find some hitting.
First a recap of the metrics we are looking at here:
Expected Power, which is a Baseball HQ/Baseball Info Solutions metric that looks at hard hit percentages, line drive and fly ball rates, and shows what that batters’ rating is on a 100 is average scale.
Actual Power, which is the metric that displays the production that players have actually produced.
GAP: The difference between the two. Positive gaps mean they have underproduced to their metrics, whereas negative indicates regression could soon be coming. It is to show how “real” their production has been and if they are poised for progression or regression.
The purpose of the exercise is to see who is legit, who has been lucky or relatively so, and who has been unlucky and perhaps due for bounce back. Or maybe it is a hitter that has been in a slump, but is showing signs of above average hard contact/power.
The red cells are simply to highlight that they are more volatile due to their low contact rate (Chris/Khris Davis, for examples).
I like to look at last 30 days’ samples to account for adjustments and latest trends. There is a table in the chart for top expected power hitters over the last 30 days with contact rates over 75% for that span, in case you wanted to see a list free from complete windmills like Joey Gallo, Chris/Khris Davis, Alex Avila and the like. Also, I have added a Top Contact table that has all the highest % contact plays with at least the average 100 expected power.
Finally, I added one last table to the report and that is a quick look at the expected power over just the last seven days, with a high contact (75% contact) and 10 at-bat filter applied.
Can’t stress enough to go through the tables and get used to what you are seeing there in addition to the specific write-ups I do in this report – folks are getting an edge with the data, for sure.
These help us identify who might be relatively off the radar and can be exploited for our success in tournaments tonight!
Have not started with the Giants, but they now have three batters among the top GAP w/High Contact leaders now and are in a more hitter friendly SunTrust Park against RA Dickey:
Brandon Belt, 1B (129 EP, +55 GAP, 76% Contact)
Buster Posey, C/1B (119 EP, +27 GAP, 88% Contact)
Joe Panik, 2B (128 EP, +17 GAP, 90% Contact)
Over in Oakland, O.co has played much more friendly to hitters so far this season and the A’s are running out one of the more hitter friendly plays in Daniel Gossett. The Astros are in town and have hit RHP on the road second best over the past 30 days, with a 142 wRC+ and .236 ISO. The top bats for Houston in our tables are:
Brian McCann, C (156 EP, +15 GAP, 82% Contact)
Carlos Beltran, OF (147 EP, +2 GAP, 78% Contact)
Yulieski Gurriel, 3B/1B (130 EP, +14 GAP, 89% Contact)
The Cardinals are not playing today, but I want to take some time for a note here:
I have had locked in Matt Carpenter, 1B, STL (203 EP, +75 GAP, 80% Contact) and Dexter Fowler, OF, STL (146 EP, +2 GAP, 81% Contact) for the last two weeks. I will still have Carp locked in, as his last seven days have been epic (261 EP, -11 GAP) but he has plenty more GAP to close. Meanwhile Fowler has finally paid off his GAP while slipping a little recently.
In many ways, Fowler has been typified how to use these numbers. He has had great power numbers over the last three-four weeks, as we’ve shown in our expected power/high contact tables. He continued to show those numbers with GAP. I have rostered him and he finally paid it off, but the numbers show he is slipping. To folks not watching the numbers, it may look like, with home runs over the weekend, Fowler is “getting hot”, but we know he has been in a groove, but looks like he is falling off, even though he is finally getting the production to pay off his GAP. In a good matchup, I will still feel good rostering him, but I am not locking him in as I have been, with Carpenter – it will just be Carp for me.
Houston RHP Brad Peacock is hard to hit, and very hard to square up, as his HR per 9 IP is 0.40 over the last 30 days. So while stacking the impressive at home against RHP A’s feel not so fortuitous, Stephen Vogt, C (155 EP, +73 GAP, 80% Contact) has to be considered a low-cost catcher play given his rising production.
Also not in a tremendously optimal situation, in a bottom ten park in Kansas City against an improved Jason Hammel, Andrew Benintendi, OF, BOS (144 EP, +67 GAP, 81% Contact) continues to groove and could move up in the lineup if one of the ailing Boston regulars sit out.
Pirates manager Clint Hurdle clearly does not believe in optimizing his lineups, but some of his Pirates have made it to our list. Andrew McCutchen, OF (151 EP, +14 GAP, 78% Contact) continues to be unceremoniously buried in the 6-slot despite having consistent, solid hard contact metrics for over a month. Josh Harrison, 2B/3B (116 EP, +43 GAP, 82% Contact) is usually in a much better spot than Cutch, and while he does not have the double dong power metrics, he is above average, has the nice matchup in Miller Park against Matt Garza, and has high contact rates with sizable GAP. And if John Jaso, 1B (158 EP, +48 GAP, 80% Contact) gets into the lineup, and is batting sixth or higher, go ahead and sneak him in, especially on multiple 1B sites like Fantasy Draft.
Tropicana Field still ranks in the bottom half of the league in run and home run rates, but that has not stopped the Rays from being 11th over the last 30 days in wRC+ at home vs. RHP and having a .212 ISO in split as well. Logan Morrison, 1B (217 EP, -14 GAP, 72% Contact) continues to be a solid play, maintaining that elite 200+ EP with output to match. Quietly, Derek Norris, C (165 EP, +51 GAP, 75% Contact) has snuck into the Top GAP WITH High Contact and is a terrific low cost catcher play. And Colby Rasmus, OF (180 EP, -5 GAP, 64% Contact) can hit it out of the Trop with little difficulty.
On the other side of that game, Joey Votto, 1B, CIN (168 EP, +24 GAP, 86% Contact) is away from the Great American Ballpark and faces a solid SP in Jake Odorizzi. He will be an attractive play in tournies due to lower ownership, even with his fantastic metrics listed there and his recent metrics as well. In his last seven days, Votto has popped the following numbers: 247 EP, +138 GAP, 92% Contact. He is locked in but has not produced to his numbers. Seems like a low exposure spot to tag Votto. His teammate, the unfortunately placed six-hold batter Scott Schebler, OF (187 EP, +32 GAP, 78% Contact) is a solid play there as well.
Kyle Seager, 3B, SEA (154 EP, +50 GAP, 85% Contact) is going to be very highly owned on DraftKings/FantasyDraft tonight with his super low salaries on the two sites, facing a RHP at home (Anibal Sanchez) and the Mariners carrying a five run plus total. Speaking of sweet splits, Justin Bour, 1B, MIA (184 EP, -34 GAP, 76% Contact) is in such a spot at home against RHP Tanner Roark.
Much to tackle today! Check the tables for more hitters/one-offs from the rest of the slate tonight!
Speaking of which, here is the full table of top expected power hitters, top expected power hitters with high contact rates, and another table for leaders in GAP, a.k.a. Most Owed Power as well as GAP w/High Contact. The new charts on Top Contact and Last Seven Days are in there as well. There is a lot to find in there, so fire away with any questions – find me in the Premium Slack Chat (@jaywalker72). I hope you find all the power today – good luck! – JW