JAYWALKER’S POWER STATION for 6/17/17
The Power Report is back for this Friday Full-slate. So many hitters here so let’s just get right to it!
First a recap of the metrics we are looking at here:
Expected Power, which is a Baseball HQ/Baseball Info Solutions metric that looks at hard hit percentages, line drive and fly ball rates, and shows what that batters’ rating is on a 100 is average scale.
Actual Power, which is the metric that displays the production that players have actually produced.
GAP: The difference between the two. Positive gaps mean they have underproduced to their metrics, whereas negative indicates regression could soon be coming. It is to show how “real” their production has been and if they are poised for progression or regression.
The purpose of the exercise is to see who is legit, who has been lucky or relatively so, and who has been unlucky and perhaps due for bounce back. Or maybe it is a hitter that has been in a slump, but is showing signs of above average hard contact/power.
The red cells are simply to highlight that they are more volatile due to their low contact rate (Chris/Khris Davis, for examples).
I like to look at last 30 days’ samples to account for adjustments and latest trends. There is a table in the chart for top expected power hitters over the last 30 days with contact rates over 75% for that span, in case you wanted to see a list free from complete windmills like Joey Gallo, Chris/Khris Davis, Alex Avila and the like. Also, I have added a Top Contact table that has all the highest % contact plays with at least the average 100 expected power.
Finally, I added one last table to the report and that is a quick look at the expected power over just the last seven days, with a high contact (75% contact) and 10 at-bat filter applied.
Can’t stress enough to go through the tables and get used to what you are seeing there in addition to the specific write-ups I do in this report – folks are getting an edge with the data, for sure.
These help us identify who might be relatively off the radar and can be exploited for our success in tournaments tonight!
Let’s start with Arizona, who struggles on the road, away from friendly Chase Field, but play in the second best HR park against the Phillies and Jared Eickhoff, who struggles mightily against LHH. Now, Paul Goldschmidt, 1B (183 EP, +24 GAP, 76% Contact) is not LHH, but he is a necessary part of a strong stack today there. Chris Herrmann, C/OF (224 EP, +17 GAP, 70% Contact) is LHH, does crush RHP and is high on our expected power lists. Very popular catcher punt when he plays. Also, with Yasmany Tomas out, Daniel Descalso, 2B/OF (154 EP, +30 GAP, 70% Contact) has not taken advantage of his extra playing time, but is an excellent play here.
Misty dong weather in Cincinnati so all the bats in LAD/CIN are in play. Cody Bellinger, 1B/OF (197 EP, -43 GAP, 63% Contact) leads the way and appears on our LAST SEVEN chart, where he has shown better contact with an 80% rate over the last seven days. Chase Utley (L7: 205 EP, +19 GAP, 87% Contact) is there as well, if Restin’ Dave Roberts can keep him in the game longer than 2-3 ABs at the top of the lineup. For the Reds, I do not mind a L-L Joey Votto, 1B (155 EP +13 GAP, 86% Contact) play as a lower owned tourney piece of this game.
In the same mindset, the St. Louis Cardinals are at home against LHP Wade Miley. Matt Carpenter, 1B (212 EP, +84 GAP, 79% Contact) continues to dominate the tables and Dexter Fowler, OF (150 EP, +15 GAP, 82% Contact) is right there with him. Both gents are also featured on the LAST SEVEN table as well.
Edwin Encarnacion, 1B (146 EP, -27 GAP, 79% Contact) is making excellent contact and has two excellent matchups today in Minnesota, against LHPs Adam Wilk and Adelberto Mejia.
Stack the Rockies in Coors? Sure. Charlie Blackmon, OF (133 EP, -23 GAP, 74% Contact) is a high priced play, but RHP at home is a sweet split. Both Nolan Arenado, 3B (157 EP, +17 GAP, 79% Contact) and Trevor Story, SS (143 EP, +29 GAP, 69% Contact) appear throughout our charts and tables.
Obviously, it does not matter who is in the Yankees lineup, they are going to crush anyway, anywhere forever this season, apparently. Against Jesse Hahn, the amazing Aaron Judge, OF (170 EP, -51 GAP, 64% Contact) can still be considered even at his high price tag. Matt Holliday, 1B/OF (163 EP, +14 GAP, 70% Contact) is another R-R consideration in the middle of that productive lineup.
Do not forget about Justin Smoak,1B (159 EP, -15 GAP, 82% Contact) at home against RHP Pelfrey and Josh Donaldson, 3B (158 EP, -32 GAP, 79% Contact) is a nice R-R play on a slate where there will be a lot of eyes on other parks.
Even though Masohira Tanaka whiffed 13 A’s in NYY the last time he faced them, Stephen Vogt, C (155 EP, +73 GAP, 77% Contact) is an excellent catcher play, especially if batting sixth or higher in the lineup today.
Parked in Houston tonight, Andrew Benintendi, OF (151 EP, +72 GAP, 79% Contact) has a ton of GAP and has been GAP’d recently as well, with a (212 EP, +114 GAP, 78% Contact rate). Mookie Betts, OF (136 EP, +23 GAP, 88% Contact) has done well over the last seven days, too, with an incredible 97% Contact rate to go with his near 200 expected power.
Eric Thames, 1B has popped back into our consciousness and gets Dinelson Lamet, who has electric stuff, but can struggle to LHH, and he is in Miller Park. Thames has gotten back on course over the last seven days, with a (180 EP, -94 GAP, 68% Contact) run.
Much to tackle today! Check the tables for more hitters/one-offs from the rest of the slate tonight!
Speaking of which, here is the full table of top expected power hitters, top expected power hitters with high contact rates, and another table for leaders in GAP, a.k.a. Most Owed Power as well as GAP w/High Contact. The new charts on Top Contact and Last Seven Days are in there as well. There is a lot to find in there, so fire away with any questions – find me in the Premium Slack Chat (@jaywalker72). I hope you find all the power today – good luck! – JW