JAYWALKER’S POWER STATION for 6/16/17
The Power Report is back for this Friday Full-slate. So many hitters here so let’s just get right to it!
First a recap of the metrics we are looking at here:
Expected Power, which is a Baseball HQ/Baseball Info Solutions metric that looks at hard hit percentages, line drive and fly ball rates, and shows what that batters’ rating is on a 100 is average scale.
Actual Power, which is the metric that displays the production that players have actually produced.
GAP: The difference between the two. Positive gaps mean they have underproduced to their metrics, whereas negative indicates regression could soon be coming. It is to show how “real” their production has been and if they are poised for progression or regression.
The purpose of the exercise is to see who is legit, who has been lucky or relatively so, and who has been unlucky and perhaps due for bounce back. Or maybe it is a hitter that has been in a slump, but is showing signs of above average hard contact/power.
The red cells are simply to highlight that they are more volatile due to their low contact rate (Chris/Khris Davis, for examples).
I like to look at last 30 days’ samples to account for adjustments and latest trends. There is a table in the chart for top expected power hitters over the last 30 days with contact rates over 75% for that span, in case you wanted to see a list free from complete windmills like Joey Gallo, Chris/Khris Davis, Alex Avila and the like. Also, I have added a Top Contact table that has all the highest % contact plays with at least the average 100 expected power.
Finally, I added one last table to the report and that is a quick look at the expected power over just the last seven days, with a high contact (75% contact) and 10 at-bat filter applied.
Can’t stress enough to go through the tables and get used to what you are seeing there in addition to the specific write-ups I do in this report – folks are getting an edge with the data, for sure.
These help us identify who might be relatively off the radar and can be exploited for our success in tournaments tonight!
MAIN SLATE GEMS:
Pretty warm night in Cincinnati, where the Dodgers are in town and, while they have not been good in this split over the last 30 days, they have begin to show signs of bounce back, with Cody Bellinger, 1B/OF (200 EP, -52 GAP, 62% Contact) has improved his contact rate to 78% over the last seven days. Others on the new last seven chart are:
Corey Seager, SS (L30: 103 EP, -7 GAP, 74% Contact, L7: 172 EP, 79%)
Justin Turner, 3B (L30: 119 EP, +26 GAP, 84% Contact, L7: 183 EP, 82%)
Chase Utley, 2B/1B (L30: 84 EP, -25 GAP, 79% Contact, L7: 179 EP, 85% Contact)
Adrian Gonzalez, 1B (L30: 112 EP, +24 GAP, 82% Contact)
As a team, the Cardinals have not fared well away against RHP, but the top two hitters in the lineup, Matt Carpenter, 1B (203 EP, +88 GAP, 79% Contact) and Dexter Fowler, OF (153 EP, +25 GAP, 82% Contact) are in excellent spots against the struggling BAL SP Kevin Gausman.
Still like the Tigers at home against a RHP, especially when the SP is below average like TAM RHP Erasmo Ramirez. Alex Avila, C/1B (235 EP, +23 GAP, 65% Contact) remains in play as long as he is batting second. JD Martinez, OF (196 EP, -26 GAP, 70% Contact) is still a good target in the middle of the lineup and Victor Martinez, 1B (136 EP, +54 GAP, 86% Contact) is insanely inexpensive on DK/FDRAFT. Because of his high contact rate, he is an essential part to any Tigers stack.
TEX SP Tyson Ross comes back to MLB in a 90+ degree temp Globe Life Stadium and facing a Seattle Mariners team that is consistently in the top 10 in wRC+ against RHP on the road this season. Leading the charge tonight will be GAP leader Kyle Seager, 3B (181 EP, +82 GAP, 84% Contact) and Robinson Cano, 2B I118 EP, +57 GAP, 91% Contact).
Boston goes into Houston against Mike Fiers, who has calmed down recently but still has given up 12 HR to RHH this season in 130 batters faced. That is a lot. Mookie Betts, OF (133 EP, +22 GAP, 89% Contact) has been crazy hot with contact. 89% is great already over the 30-day span, but over the last seven days, he is at 97%! He has a 181 EP over that span as well. Hot! Andrew Benintendi, OF (143 EP, +62 GAP, 79% Contact) has also been great recently, with a 212 EP and +113 GAP over the last seven days. Finally, the streaky Hanley Ramirez, 1B (85 EP, -10 GAP, 75% Contact) is in that prime reverse split and has a 127 EP, 78% Contact and 44% FB rate over his last seven days (23 AB).
Two Coors bats stand out tonight: Nolan Areando, 3B (150 EP, +17 GAP, 81% Contact) has been silently consistent and now gets the warm months in Denver to really mash. Brandon Belt, 1B (149 EP, +60 GAP, 80% Contact) has been power-limited at home in SF but now can get loose in Coors. Belt also has a 178 EP and 84% Contact rate over the last seven days. As always, Buster Posey, C/1B (125 EP, +42 GAP, 91% Contact) makes for an elite play as does Charlie Blackmon, OF (143 EP, -8 GAP, 76% Contact) who is at home against RHP.
I am not crazy about going after Aaron Nola, but you cannot dispute the park factors and then ignore that Paul Goldschmidt, 1B (200 EP, +41 GAP, 77% Contact) is here and that Chris Herrmann, C/OF (224 EP, +16 GAP, 70% Contact) and Daniel Descalso, 2B/OF (169 EP, +35 GAP, 65% Contact) are interesting sub plays here as well.
Much to tackle today! Check the tables for more hitters/one-offs from the rest of the slate tonight!
Speaking of which, here is the full table of top expected power hitters, top expected power hitters with high contact rates, and another table for leaders in GAP, a.k.a. Most Owed Power as well as GAP w/High Contact. The new charts on Top Contact and Last Seven Days are in there as well. There is a lot to find in there, so fire away with any questions – find me in the Premium Slack Chat (@jaywalker72). I hope you find all the power today – good luck! – JW