JAYWALKER’S POWER STATION for 6/14/17

ThePower Report is back for this interesting, 11-game main and others earlier on slate, depending on site. We saw Eddie Rosario go off last night – who is tonight’s slate breaker? Let’s get to it!

First a recap of the metrics we are looking at here:

Expected Power, which is a Baseball HQ/Baseball Info Solutions metric that looks at hard hit percentages, line drive and fly ball rates, and shows what that batters’ rating is on a 100 is average scale.

Actual Power, which is the metric that displays the production that players have actually produced.

GAP: The difference between the two. Positive gaps mean they have underproduced to their metrics, whereas negative indicates regression could soon be coming. It is to show how “real” their production has been and if they are poised for progression or regression.

The purpose of the exercise is to see who is legit, who has been lucky or relatively so, and who has been unlucky and perhaps due for bounce back. Or maybe it is a hitter that has been in a slump, but is showing signs of above average hard contact/power.

The red cells are simply to highlight that they are more volatile due to their low contact rate (Chris/Khris Davis, for examples).

I like to look at last 30 days’ samples to account for adjustments and latest trends. I added a table in the chart for top expected power hitters over the last 30 days with contact rates over 75% for that span, in case you wanted to see a list free from complete windmills like Joey Gallo, Chris/Khris Davis, Alex Avila and the like.

These help us identify who might be relatively off the radar and can be exploited for our success in tournaments tonight!

 

EARLY SLATE NUGGETS:

In the very first game we get an Oakland team that, as I wrote yesterday, has basically closed its GAP from last month but Stephen Vogt, C (141 EP, +43 GAP, 80% Contact) has peaked a little later than his teammates and has shown excellent hard contact and high contact overall over the last 30 days. Khris Davis, OF (168 EP, -13 GAP, 64% Contact) is still among the leader in expected power, as his consistent hard contact and fly ball rates make him a threat every night to go deep.

On the Miami side, Tyler Moore, 1B (184 EP, -19 GAP, 70% Contact) has been a right handed version of the man he replaced, Justin Bour, but with less contact and from the right side.

We likely will not see LHH Franchy Cordero, OF (184 EP, -30 GAP, 60% Contact) as the Reds will have LHP Amir Garrett on the hill, but Hunter Renfroe, OF (185 EP, -18 GAP, 70% Contact) is a suitable replacement target, even if more expensive than the mashing Franchy has been.

On the Reds, Joey Votto, 1B (164 EP, +15 GAP, 87% Contact) continues to bring elite high/hard contact rates as does Scott Schebler, OF (189 EP, +39 GAP, 80% Contact) and they face SDP SP Jhoulys Chacin, who has over a .400 wOBA against LHH this season.

With Atlanta’s Julio Teheran still struggling vs. LHP bats and the hot weather in Washington, it makes for a popular Nationals stack. Top LHH bats are:

Adam Lind, 1B (148 EP, +20 GAP, 84% Contact)

Matt Wieters, C (117 EP, +64 GAP, 81% Contact)

Daniel Murphy, 2B (104 EP, -4 GAP, 89% Contact)

Stephen Drew, 2B (100 EP, -62 GAP, 79% Contact)

Brian Goodwin, OF (100 EP, -70 GAP, 74% Contact)

Bryce Harper, OF (98 EP, -38 GAP, 74% Contact)

Finally, in San Francisco, Brandon Belt, 1B (158 EP, +55 GAP, 80% Contact) remains the Giants best power source and Buster Posey, C/1B (118 EP, +42 GAP, 93% Contact) has elite contact rates and some significant GAP to consider rostering on such a short slate against KC RHP Jason Hammel.

MAIN SLATE GEMS:

Wow, what a night Tuesday night was for the Expected Power and GAP warriors on the tables. Eddie Rosario finally got some of his significant GAP back (amazingly he is still +58) despite continuing to be mislabeled and misused by the Twins, batting him ninth on those days he actually plays. Also, Paul Goldschmidt, Logon Morrison, JD Martinez and the gang all had something significant, as did the double dong power of Franchy Cordero, who was accidentally left off the early slate on FD today. Whoops.

Eddie Rosario, OF, MIN (204 EP, +58 GAP, 77% Contact) is in a good spot again today against SEA RHP Sam Gaviglio. Will he play and where will he bat if he plays will be the questions to answer – but this is not just a chase play, which is why I wanted to list him first. Clearly, expecting multiple HRs from Rosario is not what GAP is all about, but he is a good, real good, high contact power bat right and has been for a couple of weeks on our tables. Ignore the triple dong and the warning of chasing and just look at the metrics and matchup – if he bats in a reasonable spot (sixth would be nice, Minnesota), fire him up with confidence.

Other Twins against Gaviglio are Miguel Sano, 3B (159 EP, +14 GAP, 58% Contact), Jason Castro, C (161 EP, +6 GAP, 70% Contact) and Brian Dozier, 2B (148 EP, +18 GAP, 77% Contact).

Likewise, Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, ARI (228 EP, +35 GAP, 78% Contact) stays in Detroit and gets RHP Jordan Zimmermann, who has given up 2.48 HR/9 IP over the last 30 days. Chris Herrmann, C (232 EP, +30 GAP, 71% Contact) is another solid power bat here, as are Jake Lamb, 3B (142 EP, -69 GAP, 77% Contact), who is overproduced but I would still take in this spot, and Gregor Blanco, OF (125 EP, +41 GAP, 74% Contact).

Matt Carpenter, 1B, STL (209 EP, +98 GAP, 78% Contact) is due to go on a run, and it will have very little to do with his lineup spot. Carp matches up with MIL RHP Matt Garza, who has a .341xwOBA against LHH this season and a 5.77 xFIP in split as well. Teammate Dexter Fowler, OF, STL (157 EP, +33 GAP, 82% Contact) is solid here as well, batting right behind Carpenter.

People are going to want to take shots at recently recalled HOU RHP Francis Martes, so here are the Texas Rangers leaders in expected power that are also in the projected lineup:

Jurickson Profar, 3B/OF (224 EP, +224 GAP, 55% Contact – ONLY 11AB)

Joey Gallo, 3B (123 EP, -54 GAP, 63% Contact)

Shin-Soo Choo, OF (118 EP, +13 GAP, 76% Contact)

Rougned Odor, 2B (103 EP, -14 GAP, 71% Contact)

Nomar Mazara, OF (103 EP, -21 GAP, 74% Contact)

 

GAP Leaders Kyle Seager, 3B, SEA (181 EP, +73 GAP, 82% Contact) and Victor Martinez, 1B, DET (157 EP, +61 GAP, 84% Contact) both have solid matchups, with Seager facing regression-is-waiting Ervin Santana and VMart facing Taijuan Walker in Detroit.

Andrew Benintendi, OF, BOS (134 EP, +54 GAP, 82% Contact) is back again, this time in Philly to take on RHP Jeremy Hellickson. Benintendi is very low priced on FanDuel, where he is only 3K.

Ben Zobirst and Jason Heyward are out for the Cubs against Matt Harvey, but the Cubbies still have “leadoff” man Anthony Rizzo, 1B (140 EP, -18 GAP, 91% Contact), Kris Bryant, 3B (141 EP, -18 GAP, 77% Contact) and Kyle Schwarber, OF (162 EP, -22 GAP, 60% Contact) to go after the Met RHP.

Don’t forget the rest of the Tigers, who crush RHP at home:

Alex Avila, C/1B (258 EP, +27 GAP, 66% Contact)

JD Martinez, OF (202 EP, -24 GAP, 71% Contact)

Nick Castellanos, 3B (123 EP, +12 GAP, 75% Contact)

Justin Upton, OF (124 EP, -9 GAP, 73% Contact)

Miguel Cabrera, 1B (102 EP, +9 GAP, 78% Contact)

 

Lastly, the Blue Jays at home against a solid, but still homer prone Jake Odorizzi (2.03 HR/9 IP over last 30 days) means that Josh Donaldson, 3B (170 EP, -34 GAP, 81% Contact), Justin Smoak, 1B (169 EP, -27 GAP, 84% Contact) and GAP Guy Ezekiel Carrera, OF (125 EP, +80 GAP, 72% Contact) are interesting plays as well.

Much to tackle today! Check the tables for more hitters from the rest of the slate tonight!

Speaking of which, here is the full table of top expected power hitters, top expected power hitters with high contact rates, and another table for leaders in GAP, a.k.a. Most Owed Power as well as GAP w/High Contact. Feel free to ask about anybody specifically and enjoy!

There is a lot to find in there, so fire away with any questions – find me in the Premium Slack Chat (@jaywalker72). I hope you find all the power today – good luck! – JW

POWER REPORT TABLE 061417 (click here)

There is a lot to find in there, so fire away with any questions – find me in the Premium Slack Chat (@jaywalker72). I hope you find all the power today – good luck! – JW