JAYWALKER’S POWER STATION for 6/13/17
The Power Report is back for the ultra-full, 14 game Tuesday night slate. So many choices, so let us get to the stats and find some hitters for tonight!
First a recap of the metrics we are looking at here:
Expected Power, which is a Baseball HQ/Baseball Info Solutions metric that looks at hard hit percentages, line drive and fly ball rates, and shows what that batters’ rating is on a 100 is average scale.
Actual Power, which is the metric that displays the production that players have actually produced.
GAP: The difference between the two. Positive gaps mean they have underproduced to their metrics, whereas negative indicates regression could soon be coming. It is to show how “real” their production has been and if they are poised for progression or regression.
The purpose of the exercise is to see who is legit, who has been lucky or relatively so, and who has been unlucky and perhaps due for bounce back. Or maybe it is a hitter that has been in a slump, but is showing signs of above average hard contact/power.
The red cells are simply to highlight that they are more volatile due to their low contact rate (Chris/Khris Davis, for examples).
I like to look at last 30 days’ samples to account for adjustments and latest trends. I added a table in the chart for top expected power hitters over the last 30 days with contact rates over 75% for that span, in case you wanted to see a list free from complete windmills like Joey Gallo, Chris/Khris Davis, Alex Avila and the like.
These help us identify who might be relatively off the radar and can be exploited for our success in tournaments tonight!
MAIN SLATE GEMS:
Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, ARI (231 EP, +36 GAP, 78% Contact) leads the way in Expected Power w/High Contact. Goldy, on such a large slate and with expensive pitching options to be had, could be a lower owned target here against a SP who does not create a lot of soft contact.
Chris Herrmann, C, ARI (241 EP, +32 GAP, 70% Contact) a.k.a. The Herrmannator is also a solid low cost catcher bat with a ton of power, as he is actually ahead of Goldy overall in expected power.
Logan Morrison, 1B, TAM (198 EP, -18 GAP, 67% Contact) gets a big park upgrade here and the Rays have been excellent against RHP on the road, with a 142 wRC+ and .296 ISO (!) over the last 30 days (362 PA) in split.
Colby Rasmus, OF, TAM (186 EP, +0 GAP, 63% Contact) is another low contact, high power bat that fits into that split with the same big park upgrade going from Tropicana Field to the Rogers Centre.
Kyle Seager, 3B, SEA (180 EP, +75 GAP, 79% Contact) has been lurking at the top of all the charts, and now will get Kyle Gibson in a positive split for the Mariners third baseman in a game that has a 10.5 run Vegas total associated with it, with 5.1 of those runs implied towards Seattle.
Rookie TAM SP Jacob Faria has to venture on the road into that Rogers Centre hitting environment and catches the Blue Jays with a few strong bats in play:
Josh Donaldson, 3B (171 EP, -52 GAP, 79% Contact)
Justin Smoak, 1B (167, -26 GAP, 86% Contact)
Ezequiel Carrera, OF (146 EP, +103 GAP, 76% Contact) our GAP leader today
Wilmer Flores, 3B, NYM (140 EP, +14 GAP, 81% Contact) leads a trail of New York Mets against CHC LHP Jon Lester. Flores is especially good in split against LHP at home, where he has enjoyed a 129 wRC+ and .272 ISO over his last 147 PAs in split.
As long as sites are going to keep Franchy Cordero, OF (160 EP, -2 GAP, 57% Contact) price down, and the Padres continue to bat him high in the order, then he will be rostered heavily, even on full slates like this one.
Fade the Yankees at your own risk, as they scored a modest five runs against the Angels in LA last night. The pinstripes have four hitters on the tables today:
Aaron Judge, OF (171 EP, -55 GAP, 64% Contact)
Aaron Hicks, OF (159 EP, +2 GAP, 80% Contact)
Matt Holliday, 1B (153 EP, -11 GAP, 69% Contact)
Chris Carter, 1B (152 EP, +4 GAP, 63% Contact)
Ben Zobrist, 2B/OF, CHC (168 EP, +71 GAP, 87% Contact) continues to make tons of hard contact and is backlogged in owed production, and he plays against a RHP Zach Wheeler, making him a possible one-off there in New York.
Andrew Benintendi, OF, BOS (136 EP, +61 GAP, 79% Contact) has bounced back and can take advantage of the warmer Boston weather and a nice matchup against pitch to contact PHI SP Ben Lively.
The Oakland A’s wave we rode in May has finally subsided, as their expected power was finally matched by their output. However, Stephen Vogt, C (143 EP, +47 GAP, 80% Contact) was late to the party and has emerged once again as a solid power catcher play and a potential one-off against MIA RHP Jose Urena.
Much to tackle today! Check the tables for more hitters from the rest of the slate tonight!
Speaking of which, here is the full table of top expected power hitters, top expected power hitters with high contact rates, and another table for leaders in GAP, a.k.a. Most Owed Power as well as GAP w/High Contact. Feel free to ask about anybody specifically and enjoy!
There is a lot to find in there, so fire away with any questions – find me in the Premium Slack Chat (@jaywalker72). I hope you find all the power today – good luck! – JW