JAYWALKER’S POWER STATION for 6/12/17
The Power Report is back for sweet spot nine-game slate tonight, not featuring any of the usual, chalky, run to them stadium choices and having hitters in interesting spots that we may not have highlighted before. The charts are updated from the weekend, new players have emerged and those we spotlighted before continue to improve, so let’s get to it!
First a recap of the metrics we are looking at here:
Expected Power, which is a Baseball HQ/Baseball Info Solutions metric that looks at hard hit percentages, line drive and fly ball rates, and shows what that batters’ rating is on a 100 is average scale.
Actual Power, which is the metric that displays the production that players have actually produced.
GAP: The difference between the two. Positive gaps mean they have underproduced to their metrics, whereas negative indicates regression could soon be coming. It is to show how “real” their production has been and if they are poised for progression or regression.
The purpose of the exercise is to see who is legit, who has been lucky or relatively so, and who has been unlucky and perhaps due for bounce back. Or maybe it is a hitter that has been in a slump, but is showing signs of above average hard contact/power.
The red cells are simply to highlight that they are more volatile due to their low contact rate (Chris/Khris Davis, for examples).
I like to look at last 30 days’ samples to account for adjustments and latest trends. I added a table in the chart for top expected power hitters over the last 30 days with contact rates over 75% for that span, in case you wanted to see a list free from complete windmills like Joey Gallo, Chris/Khris Davis, Alex Avila and the like.
These help us identify who might be relatively off the radar and can be exploited for our success in tournaments tonight!
MAIN SLATE GEMS:
Let’s start in Chicago, where the White Sox face struggling LHP Wade Miley and currently are #1 in wRC+ against LHP at home this season, and within the last 30 days. Jose Abreu, 1B (124 EP, +33 GAP, 84% Contact) is a high contact bat in the middle of the lineup that would be a must in any ChiSox stack. If Matt Davidson, 1B/3B (143 EP, +16 GAP, 53% Contact) is in the lineup, he is a high upside bat here. Todd Frazier, 3B (128, -17 GAP, 72% Contact) and if Leury Garcia does not play, Adam Engel, OF (109 EP, +109 GAP, 65% Contact) would likely leadoff and be a solid play.
All of the White Sox bats, including Avisail Garcia, Tim Anderson and Melky Cabrera, carry a wRC+ at home against LHP of over 100.
The Twins against SEA RHP Yovani Gallardo are solid today, with Miguel Sano, 3B (172 EP, +7 GAP, 57% Contact), Brian Dozier, 2B (134 EP, +33 GAP, 76% Contact) and Eddie Rosario, OF (163 EP, +68 GAP, 75% Contact) leading the charge.
Boston gets LHH challenged PHI RHP Jerad Eickhoff in Boston, putting resurgent Andrew Benintendi, OF (126 EP, +66 GAP, 79% Contact) in the target list tonight. Also, he is not LHH, but Mookie Betts, OF (132 EP, +43 GAP, 88% Contact) has begun to improve again as well.
Plenty of one-offs choices for the New York Mets as they host John Lackey and his 45.5% hard contact rate over his last 500 pitches. Because Lackey still maintains a solid level of low contact and swinging strikes, it may not be the best approach to stack the Mets, but Michael Conforto, OF (192 EP, +2 GAP, 69% Contact), Travis d’Arnaud, C (141 EP, +25 GAP, 81% Contact), Wilmer Flores, 3B (138 EP, +14 GAP, 81% Contact) and recently returned Yoenis Cespedes, OF (202 EP, +11 GAP, 80% Contact) all are found on the tables.
Padres RHP Luis Perdomo has given up 93% contact in the zone and 39% hard contact over the last 455 pitches, so Joey Votto, 1B (167 EP, +25 GAP, 86% Contact) and Scott Schebler, OF (190 EP, +21 GAP, 81% Contact) are the best targets on the Reds and will be overlooked in Petco Park tonight.
The Yankees have assaulted all pitchers this season, in every split, so even against RHP on the road tonight, they are still top 5 in wRC+ for the season. They have scored eight runs or more in what seems like 100 games in a row, so they will be a very chalky option against Alex Meyer. Aaron Hicks, OF (153 EP, +1 GAP, 79% Contact) profiles the best here against Meyer, who struggles more against LHH this season. Aaron Judge, OF (163 EP, -56 GAP, 64% Contact), he of the Jose Canseco-like home runs, is the highest expected power guy for the Yankees on the charts.
Rostering against CIN RHP Bronson Arroyo has been popular, and the Padres actually have three batters on the tables today. Wil Myers, 1B (194 EP, +90 GAP, 59% Contact), Franchy Cordero, OF (152 EP, +44 GAP, 57% Contact) are two high power, low contact bats and Yangervis Solarte, 3B (119 EP, +60 GAP, 86% Contact) offers the high contact blend for a vs. Arroyo stack.
Lastly, COL SP Kyle Freeland has one of the highest contact rates on the slate tonight (84%) over his last 463 pitches and has only produced 12.8% soft contact on that. The Pirates tonight have four bats on our lists today: Andrew McCutchen, OF (143 EP, +28 GAP, 77% Contact), Josh Harrison, 3B (118 EP, +30 GAP, 83% Contact), Elias Diaz, C (118 EP, -29 GAP, 84% Contact) and Greg Polanco, OF (107 EP, +48 GAP, 83% Contact), with Polanco being a L-L matchup here.
Much to tackle today! Check the tables for more hitters from SEA, CHC, BAL and the rest of the slate tonight!
Speaking of which, here is the full table of top expected power hitters, top expected power hitters with high contact rates, and another table for leaders in GAP, a.k.a. Most Owed Power as well as GAP w/High Contact. Feel free to ask about anybody specifically and enjoy!
There is a lot to find in there, so fire away with any questions – find me in the Premium Slack Chat (@jaywalker72). I hope you find all the power today – good luck! – JW