JAYWALKER’S POWER STATION for 6/1/17

The Power Report is back for this Happy June! split slate, with four interesting games early and four games also on the main slate.

First a recap of the metrics we are looking at here:

Expected Power, which is a Baseball HQ/Baseball Info Solutions metric that looks at hard hit percentages, line drive and fly ball rates, and shows what that batters’ rating is on a 100 is average scale.

Actual Power, which is the metric that displays the production that players have actually produced.

GAP: The difference between the two. Positive gaps mean they have underproduced to their metrics, whereas negative indicates regression could soon be coming. It is to show how “real” their production has been and if they are poised for progression or regression.

The purpose of the exercise is to see who is legit, who has been lucky or relatively so, and who has been unlucky and perhaps due for bounce back. Or maybe it is a hitter that has been in a slump, but is showing signs of above average hard contact/power.

The red cells are simply to highlight that they are more volatile due to their low contact rate (Chris/Khris Davis, for examples).

I like to look at last 30 days’ samples to account for adjustments and latest trends. I added a table in the chart for top expected power hitters over the last 30 days with contact rates over 75% for that span, in case you wanted to see a list free from complete windmills like Joey Gallo, Chris/Khris Davis, Alex Avila and the like.

These help us identify who might be relatively off the radar and can be exploited for our success in tournaments tonight!

 EARLY SLATE NUGGETS:

Jay Bruce, OF, NYM (189 EP, +51 GAP, 75% Contact) Chase Anderson is tougher than he looks this season, but if you are going to roster a Met against him Bruce, batting third, is the best contact/power bat to go after him with.

Ryon Healy, 1B/3B, OAK (185 EP, +51 GAP, 75% Contact) Corey Kluber, despite concerns of pitch count and coming off the DL, should be pretty popular given the lack of top names. If you want to be contrarian, Healy is a good place to go since most will run to either Khris Davis, OF or Chad Pinder, 2B/SS as popular one-offs

Robinson Cano, 2B, SEA (170 EP, +19 GAP, 89% Contact)

Kyle Seager, 3B, SEA (168 EP, +83 GAP, 83% Contact)

Nelson Cruz, OF, SEA (144 EP, +51 GAP, 81% Contact) It’s really hard here, because you want to take advantage of Seattle’s rise in expected power among this trip, but they have been so poor against LHP this season and Kyle Freeland pitches to some serious soft contact, especially against RHH.

Matt Carpenter, 1B, STL (221 EP, +91 GAP)

Dexter Fowler, OF, STL (180 EP, +57 GAP, 78% Contact) Like Chase Anderson, Brandon McCarthy is not a great target today, given his lack of hard contact allowed, but if you do head under the Arch for some hitting, Carpenter has regained his status as an elite expected power hitter and Fowler offers the best blend of power/contact and is leading off today.

Charlie Blackmon, OF, COL (140 EP, -13 GAP, 79% Contact)

Nolan Arenado, 3B, COL (122 EP, +0 GAP, 82% Contact) Colorado ranks in the top ten in wRC+ against RHP on the road over the last 30 days and they get a not-so-tough RHP in Yovani Gallardo. Blackmon and Arenado are priced Coors-ish right now, too, which will render them a lot less owned, especially in Safeco.

Travis Shaw, 3B, MIL (146 EP, +17 GAP, 77% Contact) Shaw is the best MIL bat right now to attack  NYM RHP Zach Wheeler with, with a solid above average EP and high contact rate, batting cleanup for the Brew Crew today.

MAIN SLATE GEMS:

Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, ARI (237 EP, +67 GAP, 79% Contact), Yasmany Tomas, OF, ARI (160 EP, +65 GAP) and Jeff Mathis, C, ARI (144 EP, +43 GAP, 78% Contact) are not the reason ARI is so bad on the road against LHP this season. Hard to sign off on stacking the ‘Backs, even against “he’s still in the league?” Jeff Locke for the Marlins, however, a three-pack or two of the three are sneaky-ish plays in a bad park, typically.

Chris Young, OF, BOS (144 EP, +1 GAP, 80% Contact) is a guy we have long associated as a LHP killer, but he has not been that this season so far, results wise. He is the middle of a Boston lineup, however, that is #5 this season against LHP away and #1 over the last 30 days. BAL is tossing LHP Wade Miley out and he is giving up more and harder contact to RHH. Mookie Betts, OF (121 EP, -19 GAP, 89% Contact) has had success against LHP lately and is solid to play as well.

Minnesota has hit RHP well at home over the last 30 days, and the Twins have four guys on the tops of expected power over the last 30 days: Miguel Sano, 3B (206 EP, +18 GAP), Brian Dozier, 2B (163 EP, +16 GAP), Eddie Rosario, OF (148 EP, +18 GAP, 79% Contact) and Jason Castro, C (153 EP, +5 GAP)

Toronto faces CC Sabathia, who is no longer the pushover against RHH, but Devon Travis, 2B (162 EP, -29 GAP, 80% Contact) and Jose Bautista, OF (155 EP, -28 GAP, 77% Contact) have been locked in and are solid one-offs from this game.

Other solid metrics from tonight include: Albert Pujols, 1B, LAA (131 EP, +31 GAP, 87% Contact), Martin Maldonado, C, LAA (128 EP, +12 GAP, 80% Contact), Justin Bour, 1B, MIA (179 EP, -36 GAP), JT Riddle, SS (157 EP, +30 GAP), Aaron Judge, OF (156 EP, -37 GAP) as well as Jefry Marte, LAA (108 EP, +29 GAP) and Danny Espinosa, LAA (111 EP, +46 GAP).

Here is the full table of top expected power hitters, top expected power hitters with high contact rates, and another table for leaders in GAP, a.k.a. Most Owed Power. Feel free to ask about anybody specifically and enjoy!

There is a lot to find in there, so fire away with any questions – find me in the Premium Slack Chat (@jaywalker72). I hope you find all the power today – good luck! – JW

POWER REPORT TABLE 060117 (click here)

There is a lot to find in there, so fire away with any questions – find me in the Premium Slack Chat (@jaywalker72). I hope you find all the power today – good luck! – JW