JAYWALKER’S POWER STATION for 6/10/17 MAIN
The Power Report is back for this very, very interesting split slate, with eight games on for the early slate and six at night. So much goodness today, let’s get to it!
First a recap of the metrics we are looking at here:
Expected Power, which is a Baseball HQ/Baseball Info Solutions metric that looks at hard hit percentages, line drive and fly ball rates, and shows what that batters’ rating is on a 100 is average scale.
Actual Power, which is the metric that displays the production that players have actually produced.
GAP: The difference between the two. Positive gaps mean they have underproduced to their metrics, whereas negative indicates regression could soon be coming. It is to show how “real” their production has been and if they are poised for progression or regression.
The purpose of the exercise is to see who is legit, who has been lucky or relatively so, and who has been unlucky and perhaps due for bounce back. Or maybe it is a hitter that has been in a slump, but is showing signs of above average hard contact/power.
The red cells are simply to highlight that they are more volatile due to their low contact rate (Chris/Khris Davis, for examples).
I like to look at last 30 days’ samples to account for adjustments and latest trends. I added a table in the chart for top expected power hitters over the last 30 days with contact rates over 75% for that span, in case you wanted to see a list free from complete windmills like Joey Gallo, Chris/Khris Davis, Alex Avila and the like.
These help us identify who might be relatively off the radar and can be exploited for our success in tournaments tonight!
EARLY SLATE NUGGETS:
There is a lot of goodness in the Wrigley Field flyball fest today, with the wind blowing out strongly and the temps close to 90 degrees. COL SP Jeff Hoffman has great stuff, but he is also a 54% FB SP, which will not bode well for his chances today. Here are the Cubs on our chart that stand out, and they also double as interesting plays that mayyyyybe not as many players will be on as they race to roster the more known bats. Maybe.
Kyle Schwarber, OF (166 EP, +17 GAP, 64% Contact) – Ok, he is popular, but also been batting ninth, so maybe not as much.
Ben Zobrist, 2B/OF (151 EP, +60 GAP, 86% Contact) – Having so much GAP, his output has been bad and his price super low. That price point may bring him into play for guys who are looking for relief, but not as much. Zobrist is the one Cub I am making sure to have in all my lineups.
Anthony Rizzo, 1B (139 EP, -5 GAP, 92% Contact) – Will be very popular, but you can differentiate by having Zobrist, Schwarbs or lesser Cubs here.
Kris Bryant, 3B/OF (136 EP, -27 GAP, 79% Contact) – Also will be popular, but again stack with a differentiator.
Jason Heyward, OF (134 EP, +39 GAP, 90% Contact) – Great high contact play and will likely be less popular so can be included with Rizzo, Bryant to help differentiate.
Cubs starter Eddie Butler is much less a FB SP (30%), but if you are looking for some Rockies, here are the top expected power bats on the chart.
Charlie Blackmon, OF (139 EP, -14 GAP, 74% Contact)
Nolan Areando, 3B (132 EP, -11 GAP, 82% Contact)
Trevor Story, SS (113 EP, -15 GAP, 67% Contact)
In Atlanta, the Mets face a newb SP in LHP Sean Newcomb, and the Mets are #1 in wRC+ against LHP this season on the road. Yoenis Cespedes, OF, NYM (214 EP, +22 GAP, 78% Contact) was great before getting hurt and sneaking him back on an early slate, where the game is not on every site, coming back from injury, is a great spot to drop Cespedes today.
It is warm and the wind blowing out in St. Louis today as well, so our favorite Cardinals are in play against Phillies RHP Nick Pivetta. Matt Carpenter, 1B (189 EP, +117 GAP, 74% Contact) is back to leading off and is an elite play today as he is our GAP leader once again. Jedd Gyorko, 3B (130 EP, +70 GAP, 78% Contact) is also a fine play in a stack, especially with so many folks going to Bryant in Chicago most likely, or Arenado in the same game. Don’t forget Dexter Fowler, OF (154 EP, +29 GAP, 78% Contact), who will likely be batting behind Carp, which will be a good thing today. Finally, Stephen Piscotty, OF (106 EP, +19 GAP, 82% Contact) was a guy who was doing great in the metrics, with a lot of GAP, before hitting the DL and, since then, has been rounding back into form, slowly raising his EP and maintaining a high contact rate. Love the 1-4 stack if it’s Carp, Fowler, The Pisco Kid and Gyorko again today.
There are some good one-offs, too, across the slate:
Logon Morrison, 1B, TBR (221 EP, =14 GAP, 68% Contact) has a nice matchup at home against OAK SP Sonny Gray, but is mislisted on some sites as Sean Manaea, who is scheduled to pitch the later game in Tampa. Manaea is LHP, so some may stay away even further than before because of that, but LoMo is an elite power bat here.
Wil Myers, 1B, SDP (196 EP, +79 GAP, 61% Contact) Going all or nothing right now, Myers has picked up the power stroke and gets KCR fly ball specialist Ian Kennedy. He is a windmill batter right now, so you are playing for the longball, but Myers is now making the hard contact to match that approach.
Yonder Alonso, 1B, OAK (172 EP, -21 GAP, 69% Contact) Oakland has erased its GAP throughout the lineup, but that does not mean that their strong power metrics should go ignored. TBR SP Erasmo Ramirez has allowed hard contact, so Alonso is still a solid play in split here.
Stephen Vogt, C, OAK (134 EP, +48 GAP, 81% Contact) Vogt is an exception now for the A’s, as he has GAP and is finally getting his own bat going, raising his contact rate and hard contact to make his first appearance this season on our charts.
Albert Pujols, 1B, LAA (121 EP, +50 GAP, 88% Contact) HOU SP Mike Fiers has given up some amazingly high HR rates to RHH and Pujols is the top contact/power bat in the Angels lineup with Mike Trout out.
Carlos Beltran, OF, HOU (150 EP, +17 GAP, 77% Contact) Beltran reps the Astros here, though we do see Yulieski Gurriel, 3B (108 EP, +9 GAP, 90% Contact) at the bottom of the GAP/Contact list. Beltran has been a steady power bat over the last 90-120 days for the Astros and has a nice matchup at home against Ricky Nolasco.
Alex Bregman, 3B, HOU (145 EP, +8 GAP, 79% Contact) Bregs is another Astros bat that has quietly been getting the job done lately, though too low in the Astros order, like Gurriel, to be rostered more regularly.
Finally, check the lineups, but Danny Santana, OF, ATL (216 EP, +44 GAP, 79% Contact) has been putting up crazy power metrics and it is not the first time in his career he has popped in my metrics lists. If he is in the lineup against NYM SP Robert Gsellman, then he is a sneaky tourney play for sure.
MAIN SLATE GEMS:
Do not overthink the Diamondbacks at home. Paul Goldschmidt, 1B (225 EP, +62 GAP, 76% Contact) is amazing against anyone. Daniel Descalso, 2B/OF (217 EP, +45 GAP, 69% Contact) has been getting playing time with Yasmany Tomas out. Gregor Blanco, OF (118 EP, +28 GAP, 75% Contact) should be leading off and his numbers have been super solid. Chris Herrmann, C (234 EP, +66 GAP, 70% Contact) a.k.a. The Herrmannator – “Get to the Choppah!” is tremendous against RHP and at home. Jake Lamb, 3B (125 EP, -77 GAP, 77% Contact) has been seeing his regression lately, but at home against RHP is a solid part of an AZ stack.
He has a tougher matchup than usual against TOR RHP Marcus Stroman, but Kyle Seager, 3B, SEA (213 EP, +104 GAP, 78% Contact) being at home against a RHP with his amount of GAP makes him a fine one-off in the Mariners lineup. He is our GAP/Contact leader and second only to Matt Carpenter of the Cardinals in GAP overall.
Toronto has quietly moved their guys into our charts, as mentioned yesterday. Josh Donaldson, 3B (164 EP, -40 GAP, 82% Contact), Justin Smoak, 1B (174 EP, -26 GAP, 84% Contact), Jose Bautista, OF (140 EP, -25 GAP, 81% Contact) have all be producing around their metrics so while they are not owed power, per se, they are still great plays against LHP Ariel Miranda tonight.
It is a crime the way Aaron Hicks, OF, NYY (150 EP, +3 GAP, 78% Contact) has been ignored, really, even in good spots this season. That is fine by me, we will keep rostering him on Team FanVice and he is in a solid spot again at home against BAL SP Chris Tillman. Joining Hicks on the Yankees hit parade today is:
Matt Holliday, 1B/OF (156 EP, -2 GAP, 66% Contact)
Starlin Castro, 2B (111 EP, +12 GAP, 79% Contact)
Aaron Judge, OF (132 EP, -31 GAP, 61% Contact)
Brett Gardner, OF (128 EP, -19 GAP, 81% Contact)
Gary Sanchez, C (112 EP, -34 GAP, 68% Contact)
On the other side for Baltimore, Chris Davis, 1B (210 EP, -25 GAP, 53% Contact) profiles as a one-off against Luis Severino in LHH power friendly Yankee Stadium.
In Boston, the matchup is between two big SP names, Chris Sale and Justin Verlander, but the Red Sox have a couple of GAP names to go after Verlander with. The Tigers do, too, but not worth popping against Chris Sale. If you are interested, check the tables – plenty of Tigers listed there, and pick one for a one-off or a super contrarian stack. The Red Sox are:
Mookie Betts, OF (123 EP, +22 GAP, 87% Contact)
Andrew Benintendi, OF (106 EP, +50 GAP, 81% Contact)
Much to tackle today! Check the tables for more hitters from the rest of the slate tonight!
Speaking of which, here is the full table of top expected power hitters, top expected power hitters with high contact rates, and another table for leaders in GAP, a.k.a. Most Owed Power as well as GAP w/High Contact. Feel free to ask about anybody specifically and enjoy!
There is a lot to find in there, so fire away with any questions – find me in the Premium Slack Chat (@jaywalker72). I hope you find all the power today – good luck! – JW