JAYWALKER’S POWER STATION for 5/26/17
The Power Report is back for this lopsided Saturday slate of games, where we have 10 going early and then five later on in the evening!
First a recap of the metrics we are looking at here:
Expected Power, which is a Baseball HQ/Baseball Info Solutions metric that looks at hard hit percentages, line drive and fly ball rates, and shows what that batters’ rating is on a 100 is average scale.
Actual Power, which is the metric that displays the production that players have actually produced.
GAP: The difference between the two. Positive gaps mean they have underproduced to their metrics, whereas negative indicates regression could soon be coming. It is to show how “real” their production has been and if they are poised for progression or regression.
The purpose of the exercise is to see who is legit, who has been lucky or relatively so, and who has been unlucky and perhaps due for bounce back. Or maybe it is a hitter that has been in a slump, but is showing signs of above average hard contact/power.
The red cells are simply to highlight that they are more volatile due to their low contact rate (Chris/Khris Davis, for examples).
I like to look at last 30 days’ samples to account for adjustments and latest trends.
These help us identify who might be relatively off the radar and can be exploited for our success in tournaments tonight!
EARLY SLATE GEMS:
Justin Bour, 1B, MIA (171 EP, -14 GAP)
J.T. Riddle, SS, MIA (181 EP, +63 GAP) Miami has the struggling JC Ramirez, who has not been as effective in his last starts than when he started the season. Bour and Riddle are two LHH who can give him problems.
Nick Castellanos, 3B, DET (121 EP, +57 GAP)
Miguel Cabrera, 1B, DET (210 EP, +114 GAP)
Mikie Mahtook, OF, DET (203 EP, +46 GAP)
JD Martinez, OF, DET (301 EP, -33 GAP)
Justin Upton, OF, DET (156 EP, -8 GAP)
Victor Martinez, 1B, DET (136 EP, +43 GAP) The Tigers are second in the league in wRC+ against LHP on the road, with a 131 total across 138 plate appearances. They walk 12.3% of the time, have a .220 ISO and a .362 wOBA. The list above shows you why and they get Derek Holland as their opponent, who has given up 42% hard contact and only 14% soft contact against RHH this season.
Nelson Cruz, OF, SEA (186 EP, +22 GAP)
Danny Valencia, 1B, SEA (104 EP, -12 GAP) In Brian Johnson’s short time in the majors, he has faced RHH 42 times and allowed 28 of them to reach base safely, five of which went for extra bases. Cruz and Valencia offer the best RHH bats here for Seattle.
Scott Schebler, OF, CIN (174 EP, +10 GAP)
Joey Votto, 1B, CIN (167 EP, +18 GAP) PHL RHP Jerad Eickhoff struggles against LHH, with a .363 wOBA and a 1.8 HR/9 IP rate. These numbers tick up slightly when Eickhoff is at home, giving up 2.2 HR/9 IP and a .381 wOBA.
Gregor Blanco, OF, ARI (129 EP, +77 GAP) Blanco is an excellent play If leading off against Chase Anderson and the Diamondbacks on the whole, with Jake Lamb, Paul Goldschmidt and Yasmany Tomas, are all excellent plays.
Jed Lowrie, 2B, OAK (143 EP, +14 GAP)
Mark Canha, OF, OAK (186 EP, -47 GAP)
Khris Davis, OF, OAK (248 EP, +94 GAP)
Ryon Healy, 1B/3B, OAK (192 EP, +92 GAP)
Chad Pinder, 2B/SS, OAK (208 EP, -41 GAP) Ah, Oakland – waited until the very last swings to score four runs against the Yankees Friday, but get a RHH friendly target in CC Sabathia. I expect all these gents to be in the lineup and do what Friday’s crew could not.
LATE SLATE GEMS:
Anthony Rizzo, 1B, CHC (124 EP, +10 GAP) Rizzo has been smoking lately, with a 277 expected power over his last seven games. He will go against Brandon McCarthy, who allows 82.3% contact and nearly 90% contact in the strike zone.
Yasmani Grandal, C, LAD (121 EP, -17 GAP)
Chase Utley, 1B/2B, LAD (126 EP, +41 GAP)
Cody Bellinger, 1B/OF (186 EP, -22 GAP) CHC SP John Lackey has given up 2.7 HR/9 IP to LHH this season and these three gents represent the best power from the left side available to Dave Roberts tonight.
Dexter Fowler, OF, STL (183 EP, +38 GAP)
Jedd Gyorko, 3B, STL (129 EP, +3 GAP)
Matt Carpenter, 1B, STL (225 EP, +51 GAP)
Stephen Piscotty, OF, STL (144 EP, +71 GAP) COL SP Kyle Freeland gives up the second most contact overall to opposing hitters with 85.8% and an astounding 93% in the strike zone. He is also near the bottom in chase % and first strike. Yes, the Cardinals laid a huge egg on Friday night, but do not let that hinder you. If Piscotty does not play due to injury, Thomas Pham is an excellent substitute.
Charlie Blackmon, OF, COL (109 EP, -29 GAP)
Gerardo Parra, OF, COL (120 EP, +48 GAP)
Nolan Arenado, 3B, COL (150 EP, +17 GAP)
Trevor Story, SS, COL (225 EP, +32 GAP) Adam Wainwright has struggled, and does worst, power wise against RHH, than LHH, but these are the best bats on the Rockies side for the game.
There are a lot of guys who could be one-offs – Here is the full table of top expected power hitters and another table for leaders in GAP, a.k.a. Most Owed Power. Feel free to ask about anybody specifically and enjoy!
There is a lot to find in there, so fire away with any questions – find me in the Premium Slack Chat (@jaywalker72). I hope you find all the power today – good luck! – JW