JAYWALKER’S POWER STATION for 5/26/17
The Power Report is back for this vaca weekend 14-game slate tonight!
First a recap of the metrics we are looking at here:
Expected Power, which is a Baseball HQ/Baseball Info Solutions metric that looks at hard hit percentages, line drive and fly ball rates, and shows what that batters’ rating is on a 100 is average scale.
Actual Power, which is the metric that displays the production that players have actually produced.
GAP: The difference between the two. Positive gaps mean they have underproduced to their metrics, whereas negative indicates regression could soon be coming. It is to show how “real” their production has been and if they are poised for progression or regression.
The purpose of the exercise is to see who is legit, who has been lucky or relatively so, and who has been unlucky and perhaps due for bounce back. Or maybe it is a hitter that has been in a slump, but is showing signs of above average hard contact/power.
The red cells are simply to highlight that they are more volatile due to their low contact rate (Chris/Khris Davis, for examples).
I like to look at last 30 days’ samples to account for adjustments and latest trends.
These help us identify who might be relatively off the radar and can be exploited for our success in tournaments tonight!
MAIN SLATE GEMS:
Until they cool off, I am going to keep on talking about the Oakland A’s, who venture into a very good hitter’s park in New York tonight. The A’s have multiple hitters on The Power Report, starting with Khris Davis, OF (248 EP, +94 GAP), who has a red contact rate of 64% to underline his volatility as a choice, but the EP and GAP should not be ignored.
Davis is also a great choice because NYY SP Masahiro Tanaka has massive reverse splits and has given up five home runs in 52 PAs to RHH already this season at home. Ryon Healy, 1B/3B (192 EP, +92 GAP) is another great choice, and very inexpensive, to pair with Davis. A lot of the A’s are above average in expected power right now (check them all out in the table below), and Jed Lowrie, 2B (143 EP, +14 GAP, 85% Contact) has been a popular choice among subscribers and that will not change with Lowrie’s price on FanDuel at a ridiculously low $2,300.
Gregor Blanco, OF, ARI (129 EP, +77 GAP) This is even after Blanco homered last night off of MIL SP Kyle Davies. Blanco should be leading off tonight against MIL SP Junior Guerra, who has a 44% career hard contact rate against LHH.
Looking to punt at the middle infield positions on DK? If you do not mind rostering down the lineup card, into the seventh and eighth positions, then you can find another Oakland standout, Chad Pinder, 2B/SS (208 EP, -41 GAP) and J.T. Riddle, SS, MIA (181 EP, +63 GAP, 80% Contact rate). Miami should seriously move Riddle up the lineup to the 2-spot and move Stanton back down. If the Marlins did that tonight, he would be a must play and significantly more popular.
Want to roster Coors Field tonight? Here are some of the best bats:
Matt Carpenter, 1B, STL (225 EP, +51 GAP)
Trevor Story, SS, COL (225 EP, +32 GAP, 58% contact rate)
Dexter Fowler, OF, STL (183 EP, +38 GAP, 79% contact)
Stephen Piscotty, OF, STL (144 EP, +71 GAP, 84% contact)
Randal Grichuk, OF, STL (157 EP, +51 GAP)
Gerardo Parra, OF, COL (120 EP, +48 GAP, 81% contact)
Nolan Arenado, 3B, COL (150 EP, +17 GAP, 80% contact)
Lastly, KCR SP Ian Kennedy is terrible outside of KC, sporting a 6.69 xFIP and nearly 2 HR/9 IP away from home this season. He goes to Cleveland, who hits righties very well at home, ranking ninth in that split with a 119 wRC+, .202 ISO and .350 wOBA. But the top of the Indians lineup has not been rich with power, neither in the last 30 days or last seven. It is the middle to bottom of the lineup that has seen success, so take tourney aim for Edwin Encarnacion, 1B (124 EP, -10 GAP), Jose Ramirez, 3B (120 EP, +45 GAP), Lonnie Chisenhall, OF (if in the lineup), (176 EP, +12 GAP) and Yan Gomes, C (183 EP, +19 GAP).
There are a lot of guys who could be one-offs – Here is the full table of top expected power hitters and another table for leaders in GAP, a.k.a. Most Owed Power. Feel free to ask about anybody specifically and enjoy!
There is a lot to find in there, so fire away with any questions – find me in the Premium Slack Chat (@jaywalker72). I hope you find all the power today – good luck! – JW