JAYWALKER’S POWER STATION for 5/25/17
The Power Report is back for this tasty split slate, with five/six games early (depending on site) and five games on the main slate.
First a recap of the metrics we are looking at here:
Expected Power, which is a Baseball HQ/Baseball Info Solutions metric that looks at hard hit percentages, line drive and fly ball rates, and shows what that batters’ rating is on a 100 is average scale.
Actual Power, which is the metric that displays the production that players have actually produced.
GAP: The difference between the two. Positive gaps mean they have underproduced to their metrics, whereas negative indicates regression could soon be coming. It is to show how “real” their production has been and if they are poised for progression or regression.
The purpose of the exercise is to see who is legit, who has been lucky or relatively so, and who has been unlucky and perhaps due for bounce back. Or maybe it is a hitter that has been in a slump, but is showing signs of above average hard contact/power.
The red cells are simply to highlight that they are more volatile due to their low contact rate (Chris/Khris Davis, for examples).
These help us identify who might be relatively off the radar and can be exploited for our success in tournaments tonight!
EARLY SLATE GEMS:
Nelson Cruz, OF, SEA (171 EP, +18 GAP) Going against LHP is something that Nelson Cruz does very well, dropping wRC+ of 185, 174, 221 and 168 the last four seasons, including this one. Gio Gonzalez is not quite yet a tomato can, but has allowed 1.53 HR/9 IP and an 11% walk rate. He is a cash game lock for the slate.
Aaron Altherr, OF, PHL (121 EP, -70 GAP) The Phillies have an amazing 147 wRC+ against LHP at home, and with Altherr batting fourth in there, with his own 146 wRC+ for his career in split, he is going to be in the middle of the production should the Phillies play up to their current level against LHP Tyler Anderson.
Mike Trout, OF, LAA (212 EP, -76 GAP) TBR SP Matt Andreise is a reverse splits guy, and has given up 43% hard contact and seven home runs in 122 batters faced against RHH this season, all at home. Trout has overproduced to his metrics over the last 30 days, but fits the vs. profile perfectly here.
Logon Morrison, 1B, TBR (221 EP, -12 GAP)
Colby Rasmus, OF, TBR (178 EP, -36 GAP)
Corey Dickerson, OF, TBR (127 EP, -45 GAP) LAA is putting Daniel Wright out in to the Tampa Bay Rays fire today. The Rays have a 111 wRC+ , .171 ISO and these three guys can do a lot of damage against Wright, who does bad against all batter, but especially worse against LHH.
Anthony Rizzo, 1B, CHC (109 EP, -3 GAP, 85% contact) Rizzo has a 239 EP and 89% contact rate over the last seven days, and has been catching fire, evidenced by his two HR performance against the terrible Matt Moore yesterday.
Matt Wieters, C, WAS (159 EP, +76 GAP) Wieters has been doing better against LHP this season than against RHP, and SEA LHP Ariel Miranda has been thrashed by RHH, with a .378 wOBA, 5.76 xFIP and 2.9 HR per 9 IP vs RHH on the road.
MAIN SLATE GEMS:
Jay Bruce, 1B/OF, NYM (217 EP, +65 GAP)
Curtis Granderson, OF, NYM (170 EP, +32 GAP)
Michael Conforto, OF, NYM (217 EP, -16 GAP) Check the weather on this one, and the condition on Jay Bruce’s back, but the Padres toss a rookie, RHP Dinelson Lamet, into the fray here against a Mets team that, on whole, is so-so at home against RHP, but these three guys all profile well. Dinelson is a primarily high strikeout-high walk, fly ball pitcher, which could lend to some long ball fun for one or all of these three guys.
Jake Lamb, 3B, ARI (160 EP, -36 GAP) Lamb is locked in right now, even teeing off against LHP Jose Quintana yesterday afternoon. Easier will be the sledding against MIL SP Kyle Davies, who gives up more power to LHH.
Chris Herrmann, C, ARI (234 EP, +23 GAP) Herrmann can also participate in the fun, if included in the lineup. Herrmann has ramped up his expected power and has actually been a little unlucky, if you can consider his recent home run tear unlucky in any way.
Miguel Cabrera, 1B, DET (214 EP, +123 GAP)
Victor Martinez, 1B, DET (134 EP, +34 GAP)
JD Martinez, OF, DET (266 EP, -21 GAP) HOUs SP Mike Fiers has had reverse splits over the last few seasons and has already given up four home runs in 31 batters faced at home against RHH and 11 in 78 batters faced overall. Right handed power hitting is who the Tigers are, so enjoy.
Stephen Piscotty, OF, STL (164 EP, +82 GAP)
Matt Carpenter, 1B, STL (229 EP, +52 GAP)
Dexter Fowler, OF, STL (202 EP, +44 GAP) All three have been impressive but this is a risky spot against LAD SP Kenta Maeda, who usually does quite well. Maeda will have a short leash, but the Dodgers bullpen is very good in the middle innings, especially at home. So one of these guys will be a good contrarian play.
There are a lot of guys who could be one-offs! Here is the full table of top expected power hitters and another table for leaders in GAP, a.k.a. Most Owed Power. Feel free to ask about anybody specifically and enjoy!