JAYWALKER’S POWER STATION for 5/23/17
The Power Report is back for a full tilt 15-game slate to take the pain away from Monday, if you need it.
First a recap of the metrics we are looking at here:
Expected Power, which is a Baseball HQ/Baseball Data Solutions metric that looks at hard hit percentages, line drive and fly ball rates, and shows what that batters’ rating is on a 100 is average scale.
Actual Power, which is the metric that displays the production that players have actually produced.
GAP: The difference between the two. Positive gaps mean they have underproduced to their metrics, whereas negative indicates regression could soon be coming.
The purpose of the exercise is to see who is legit, who has been lucky or relatively so, and who has been unlucky and perhaps due for bounce back. Or maybe it is a hitter that has been in a slump, but is showing signs of above average hard contact/power.
These help us identify who might be relatively off the radar and can be exploited for our success in tournaments tonight!
MAIN SLATE GEMS:
Let’s start with my guys, the Oakland A’s, who face a sub-par SP in Jose Urena, who has a 5.05 SIERA and a slate high 86.4% contact rate against. Chad Pinder, IF (234 EP, -2 GAP) has been a revelation and should continue to play. Urena is bad against both LHH and RHH, but all of the homers this season have been against RHH, so Khris Davis, OF (237 EP, +102 GAP) and Ryon Healy, 1B/3B (186 EP, +79 GAP) are fine plays.
Carlos Beltran, OF, HOU (145 EP, +31 GAP) should be in a good spot against DET SP Jordan Zimmermann, who has been an awful pitcher this season, carrying a 5.39 SIERA, 2.22 HR/9 IP, and a 42.3% hard contact rate. George Springer, OF (136 EP, +35 GAP) would be good here, too, with Zimmermann’s reverse splits.
The Diamondbacks are always trouble at home and having CWS SP Dylan Covey will not deter them. His real struggles come from the RHH bats. Unfortunately for him, Arizona has some elite power from the right side. Paul Goldschmidt, 1B (199 EP, +30 GAP) leads the way obviously, but last season he was not hitting the ball with authority like he is this season. The metrics love him and over the last seven games going into Monday’s night game, Goldy has a 303 EP over his last 21 at-bats and only had a 124 output – major GAP!
Additionally, Yasmany Tomas, OF (171 EP, +11 GAP) shares in the recent awesomeness, driving a 269 EP over his previous 22 AB, with 175 output to show for it. That is good, but he is locked in even more than that.
Some one-offs on this slate include:
Ryan Schimpf, 3B, SD (147 EP, -49 GAP) gets a nice matchup against the struggling NYM SP Matt Harvey, who has given up 2.2 HR/9 IP this season.
Logan Morrison, 1B, TB (213 EP, +0 GAP) Matt Shoemaker comes in weaker against strong LHH, lowering his K-rate and raising his wOBA against them. Morrison is blazing hot in the middle of the Rays lineup, and his metrics show the power pop this season is legit.
It’s only been 10 at-bats since he got the call, but Rio Ruiz, 3B, ATL (225 EP, +11 GAP) has shown some pop and faces Tyler Glasnow, who has given up three homers in 14.2 UP against LHH so far this season.
He has let down the last two slates, but Kyle Seager, 3B, SEA (167 EP, +91 GAP) will get a nice spot against WAS SP Joe Ross (as of this writing), who has given up 3.5 HR/9 IP to LHH this season and a .450 wOBA overall.
Here is the full table of top expected power hitters and another table for leaders in GAP, a.k.a. Most Owed Power. Enjoy!
There is a lot to find in there, so fire away with any questions – find me in the Premium Slack Chat (@jaywalker72). I hope you find all the power today – good luck! – JW
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