JAYWALKER’S POWER STATION for May 20th
The Power Report is back for this split Saturday slate, with eight games early and a seven game evening slate.
First a recap of the metrics we are looking at here:
Expected Power, which is a Baseball HQ/Baseball Data Solutions metric that looks at hard hit percentages, line drive and fly ball rates, and shows what that batters’ rating is on a 100 is average scale.
Actual Power, which is the metric that displays the production that players have actually produced.
GAP: The difference between the two. Positive gaps mean they have underproduced to their metrics, whereas negative indicates regression could soon be coming.
The purpose of the exercise is to see who is legit, who has been lucky or relatively so, and who has been unlucky and perhaps due for bounce back. Or maybe it is a hitter that has been in a slump, but is showing signs of above average hard contact/power.
These help us identify who might be relatively off the radar and can be exploited for our success in tournaments tonight!
EARLY SLATE GEMS:
Khris Davis, OF, OAK (225 EP, +92 GAP), Ryon Healy, 3B/1B, OAK (192 EP, +74 GAP), Chad Pinder, 2B/SS, OAK (234 EP, +33 GAP) – Ok, anybody that has read The Power Report before knows that the metrics have been behind the A’s recently. Adding Pinder, who is filling in at SS, is interesting in that you can add him to a wrap-around stack if he is batting ninth. BOS SP Drew Pomeranz has a 5.51 xFIP against RHH away from home this season, with 2.2 HR/9 IP in 35 batters faced. Pomeranz has been good getting soft contact, too, so Oakland may not be the best stacking candidate today, but a one-off from this group, especially Davis and Healy, who is $3,300 on DK, is a good call.
HOU SP Mike Fiers has really super struggled historically, and this season, against RHH. In split this season, Fiers has faced 73 RHH and given up 11(!) HR to them, driving a .489 wOBA this season. Fiers gave up 17 HR to RHH last season and a still RHH friendly .358 wOBA. Edwin Encarnacion, 1B, CLE (128 EP, +23 GAP) and Yan Gomes, C, CLE (157 EP, +43 GAP) are the two best candidates here to take advantage, with Encarnacion at a reasonable $3,800 on DK and Gomes at $3,100.
Everyone will be taking the LHH for Washington against Bartolo Colon, who has a .353 wOBA against LHH, with a 5.29 xFIP, 1.5 HR/9 IP and 36% hard contact rate in split. At home against LHH, these numbers jump to a .413 wOBA, 6.29 xFIP and 38% hard contact. Daniel Murphy, 2B, WAS (103 EP, -2 GAP), Bryce Harper, OF, WAS (123 EP, -97 GAP) will be obvious targets for folks, but Matt Wieters, C, WAS (178 EP, +97 GAP, 77% Contact) should be considered here as well, especially if he is up in the lineup at least at the 7-slot.
Joey Votto, 1B, CIN (177 EP, +8 GAP) and Scott Schebler, OF, CIN (130 EP, -18 GAP) are solid plays against COL SP Antonio Senzatela, who has yielded a .371 wOBA, 4.57 xFIP and a 1.2 HR/9 IP even away from Coors this season.
Evan Longoria, 3B, TAM (107 EP, +6 GAP, 83% Contact rate) NYY SP Tanaka has been bludgeoned by RHH this season, giving up a 5.26 xFIP against RHH on the road this season and striking out only 14.8%. Longoria provides a solid play here to take advantage of it, if you want to go after Tanaka.
Sal Perez, C, KCR (151 EP, +49 GAP) Perez continues to rake and now will get MIN LHP Mejia, who has given up a 6.14 xFIP and 1.9 HR/9 IP to RHH this season. Perez is the catching option in the middle of a lineup, making him more valuable, obviously, but actually hits like it too, power-wise.
MAIN SLATE GEMS:
Chris Davis, 1B, BAL (197 EP, +13 GAP), Manny Machado, 3B, BAL (150 EP, +25 GAP), Jonathan Schoop, 2B, BAL (127 EP, -5 GAP) have all been doing well lately, as well as the noted last 30 days, and especially Davis, who would face TOR SP Mike Bolsinger (.359 career wOBA vs. LHH), is a nice one-off target here.
Fall off the bike? You get back on. Detroit let down a lot of folks against Texas at home, but now get A.J. Griffin, who has been better than last season, but still offering a 6.01 xFIP and 2.1 HR/9 IP against LHH this season. Alex Avila, C, DET (218 EP, +77 GAP) and Tyler Collins (137 EP, +20 GAP) should be batting high in the lineup again with Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez out.
Chase Utley, 2B, (149 EP, +76 GAP) will get some extra time with Justin Turner out and might be leading off against RHP Dan Straily at home in LA. Utley has a 185 EP over his last 21 AB and as long as Restin’ Dave Roberts keeps Utley in the game, he is bargain at $3,400 on DK.
Matt Carpenter, 1B, STL (181 EP, -22 GAP) and Dexter Fowler (225 EP, +31 GAP) Jeff Samardzjia has been very hittable away from the pitching friendly SF bay area, especially against LHH, where he was given p a .394 wOBA and 2.4 HR/9 IP in split. We are finally seeing the Matt Carpenter we have grown accustomed to seeing the last two seasons, with Carp hitting a 246 EP over the last seven days. Fowler has been on fire and had another great night last night (after we put him in the Power Report) and should be leading off the fun in the STL.
Here is the full table of top expected power hitters and another table for leaders in Most Owed Power. Enjoy!
There is a lot to find in there, so fire away with any questions – find me in the Premium Slack Chat (@jaywalker72). I hope you find all the power today – good luck! – JW
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