JAYWALKER’S POWER STATION for May 19th
The Power Report is back for this mondo full Friday slate, packed with 14 games on the schedule.
First a recap of the metrics we are looking at here:
Expected Power, which is a Baseball HQ/Baseball Data Solutions metrics that looks at hard hit percentages, line drive and fly ball rates, and shows what that batters’ rating is on a 100 is average scale.
Actual Power, which is the metric that displays the production that players has actually produced.
GAP: The difference between the two. Positive gaps mean they have underproduced to their metrics, whereas negative indicated regression could soon be coming.
The purpose of the exercise is to see who is legit, who has been lucky or relatively so, and who has been unlucky and perhaps due for bounce back. Or maybe it is a hitter that has been in a slump, but is showing signs of above average hard contact/power.
These help us identify who might be off the radar and can be exploited for our success in tournaments today!
MAIN SLATE GEMS:
Jay Bruce, OF, NYM (228 EP, +65 GAP) It may seem like Bruce produces a lot, but he has been hotter than even he has gotten credit for. Bruce has a solid contact rate for a player of his power nature as well. At home, against Ricky Nolasco, it should be a good spot for Mr. Bruce.
Also, since Nolasco has been hammered by RHH (he has not been good against LHH, either), then we can fire up #2 hitter T.J. Rivera, 1B/3B, NYM (131 EP, +42 GAP, 91% Contact Rate) who is an incredible $2,800 on DK – fire him up, indeed!
I am a broken record when it comes to the Tigers, but they have Nick Martinez on the mound against them, at home, which is a great combination for Detroit. Martinez has been very well hit against LHH, so if he is in the lineup, Alex Avila, C/1B, DET (218 EP, +77 GAP) is a very nice play. With Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez out tonight, Avila should be at least playing 1B at comes in at $3,200 on DK.
In fact, all the projected Tigers from 1-6 are above average in expected power, so Ian Kinsler, Nick Castellanos, JD Martinez, Justin Upton and Tyler Collins can all be stacked in one way or another in this matchup. NOTE: JD Martinez fell below the 20 AB threshold for the Expected Power leaders, but has a 296 rating since his return.
Ryan Zimmerman, 1B, WAS (182 EP, -58 GAP) has a nice matchup against ATL SP R.A. Dickey, who has a reverse split against RHH power this season. The ballpark will also be one of the better hitting environments on the slate tonight as the heat/humidity begin to take hold in the new SunTrust Stadium.
Dexter Fowler, OF, STL (225 EP, +31 GAP) STL is a sneaky hitter park when it also gets hot/humid and the air density is in a good place tonight. Even better for Fowler is the matchup against LHP Matt Moore, who is among the highest hard contact SPs on the slate tonight. He is getting pounded by LHH, but even RHH has a 35% hard contact rate this season. Fowler has a strong .376 wOBA split against LHP, will be batting leadoff and has shown massive power so far this season, and is owed a little even still.
Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, ARI (202 EP, +22 GAP) & Yasmany Tomas, OF, ARI (186 EP, +6 GAP) You likely would not have to have your arm twisted to target Jared Weaver, but consider that last season Weaver issued a home run 2.1 times every nine innings and this season, across 90 PA, that number is 3.0.
Here is the full table of top expected power hitters and another table for leaders in Most Owed Power. Enjoy!
There is a lot to find in there, so fire away with any questions – find me in the Premium Slack Chat (@jaywalker72). I hope you find all the power today – good luck! – JW
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